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OGI.TO (OGI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of OGI.TO C$0.43, price C$1.53, upside -71.7%, quality 35 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · CA · ISIN CA68617J1003

OT OGI.TO logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

OGI.TO

OGI · TO

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value C$0.4335 · Strongly overvalued (−72%)
!Quality 35/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +24.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.2% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (2/11)
!Narrow moat 11/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

C$15.16 C$1.23 Fair Value C$0.4335 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range C$1.23 – C$15.16 · fair‑value band C$0.2890 – C$0.5440 · the C$1.53 price screens above the C$0.4335 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Organigram Global Inc. engages in the production and sale of cannabis and cannabis-derived products in Canada.

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Organigram Global Inc. engages in the production and sale of cannabis and cannabis-derived products in Canada. It offers medical cannabis products, including whole flower, milled flower, pre-rolls, infused pre-rolls, vapes, beverages, gummies, and concentrates; and adult use recreational cannabis under the SHRED, Big Bag O' Buds, Monjour, Trailblazer, SHRED'ems, Edison Cannabis Co., Boxhot, Edison JOLTS, Wola, Rizzlers, DEBUNK, Tremblant, and Laurentian brands. The company also engages in the wholesale shipping of cannabis plant cuttings and dried flowers to other licensed producers. It sells cannabis products to wholesale and retail channels in the recreational and medical cannabis regimes, as well as through online. Organigram Global Inc. was formerly known as Organigram Holdings Inc. and changed its name to Organigram Global Inc. in March 2025. The company is headquartered in Toronto, Canada.

Stock analysis

OGI.TO (OGI) currently trades at C$1.53, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.4335, implying the stock looks roughly 253.0% overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: C$0.2890 (bear) to C$0.5440 (bull), the price of C$1.53 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 35/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

OGI.TO reported revenue of C$259M in FY2025 versus C$79.2M in FY2021, a compound +34.5%/yr. Reported net income was −C$24.8M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap C$195M (≈ $138M) · P/S ratio 0.63 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.2100 · Net margin −9.6% · Return on equity −5.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −26.0% · Operating margin −16.4% · Revenue (TTM) C$274M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −8% fair-value upside, at −72%, OGI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear C$0.2890 Fair Value C$0.4335 Bull C$0.5440
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) C$1.24 C$1.66 C$2.48 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) C$1.24 C$1.66 C$2.48 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 35/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15

Profitability 7
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 77
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 28
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+62.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +74.6% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+108.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−167.6% (2020) → −34.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

OGI screens 253% overvalued. Compare with Merck KGaA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 630 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 35 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −16% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −9% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.20× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.40× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.51× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 40.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 14
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 20
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)90 · sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 32

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Merck KGaA MRK €133.95 €108.70 −19%
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company TAK $18.81 $11.29 −40%
Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co 600276 ¥45.58 ¥50.14 +10%
Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited SUNPHARMA ₹1,865 ₹1,979 +6%
Galderma Group GALD CHF 163.80 CHF 109.88 −33%
Haleon plc HLN $9.25 $8.50 −8%
Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited TEVA $39.01 $20.75 −47%
Sandoz Group SDZ CHF 70.76 CHF 40.16 −43%
Zoetis Inc ZTS $71.61 $108.48 +51%
Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group 3692 HK$35.34 HK$38.87 +10%

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OGI.TO · Fair Value
C$0.4335 −253%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "OGI.TO Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/OGI

Frequently asked questions

Is OGI.TO (OGI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.4335 versus a price of C$1.53, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of OGI?
Our model-based fair value for OGI.TO is C$0.4335 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$1.53.
What is the quality score of OGI?
OGI.TO has a Quality Score of 35/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for OGI.TO (OGI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.4335 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario C$0.2890, optimistic scenario C$0.5440. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the OGI.TO stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.4335, about −72% upside versus a price of C$1.53 (overvalued). Cautious scenario C$0.2890, optimistic scenario C$0.5440. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of OGI.TO (OGI)?
OGI.TO reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$274M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of OGI.TO (OGI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For OGI.TO it is C$0.4335 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of C$1.53. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is OGI.TO stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, OGI trades above its calculated fair value: price C$1.53, fair value C$0.4335, a gap of about −72% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of OGI?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$1.53); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.4335). For OGI.TO the two are C$1.10 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is OGI.TO worth?
The market values OGI.TO at about C$195M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is C$1.53; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.4335 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about OGI?
Our models span a range for OGI.TO: cautious scenario C$0.2890, base C$0.4335, optimistic C$0.5440 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price C$1.53). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of OGI.TO (OGI)?
Balance-sheet figures for OGI.TO (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.9%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 35/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is OGI from its 52-week high?
OGI.TO trades at C$1.53, about 47% below its 52-week high of C$2.90 and 24% above the low of C$1.23 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.4335 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to OGI.TO?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals Co, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is OGI.TO stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price C$1.53, calculated fair value C$0.4335 (−72%), Quality Score 35/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of OGI calculated?
We run OGI.TO through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.4335, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. OGI.TO itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of OGI.TO (OGI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$1.53. Our model-based fair value is C$0.4335, about −72% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with OGI.TO right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.5440). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (35/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (C$0.2890 to C$0.5440) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of OGI.TO

How large is the market capitalisation of OGI.TO (OGI)?
The market capitalisation of OGI.TO is C$195M (≈ $138M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of OGI.TO (OGI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of OGI.TO is 0.63 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of OGI.TO (OGI)?
Earnings per share at OGI.TO are C$−0.2100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of OGI.TO (OGI)?
The net margin of OGI.TO is −9.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of OGI.TO (OGI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of OGI.TO is −5.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of OGI.TO (OGI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of OGI.TO is −26.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of OGI.TO (OGI)?
The operating margin of OGI.TO is −16.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at OGI.TO (OGI)?
Revenue at OGI.TO is growing −8.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does OGI.TO (OGI) generate?
The free cash flow of OGI.TO is −C$24.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does OGI.TO (OGI) hold?
OGI.TO holds more cash than debt, C$74.8M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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