Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Orchard Funding Group PLC £0.57, price £0.61, upside -5.4%, quality 67 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £0.1444 – £0.6400 · fair‑value band £0.1566 – £0.9368 · the £0.6050 price screens above the £0.5725 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Orchard Funding Group plc, through its subsidiaries, offers insurance premium finance, professional fee funding, finance, and secured property lending services in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Standard Lending and Toyota Products.
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Orchard Funding Group plc, through its subsidiaries, offers insurance premium finance, professional fee funding, finance, and secured property lending services in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments, Standard Lending and Toyota Products. The company provides finance to businesses and consumers for spreading the cost of their insurance premiums; and professional customized fee funding solutions to accounting firms, professionals, and small businesses to provide extended credit to their business clients. Orchard Funding Group plc was founded in 2002 and is based in Luton, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH) currently trades at £0.6050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.5725, implying the stock looks roughly 5.7% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £5.40 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the £0.6050 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.3000, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: £0.1566 (bear) to £0.9368 (bull), the price of £0.6050 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Orchard Funding Group PLC reported revenue of 10.5M GBX in FY2025 versus 4.6M GBX in FY2021, a compound +22.9%/yr. Reported net income was 3.1M GBX in FY2025, compounding +38.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 12.9M GBX · P/E ratio 4.3 · P/S ratio 1.26 · EPS (TTM) £0.1400 · Dividend yield 3.3% · Net margin 29.2% · Return on equity 14.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at −5%, ORCH screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £0.1566Fair Value £0.5725Bull £0.9368
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.1200 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+8.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.9% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+19.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.19% vs 12%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.42% → 55%
2025 sits 94% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Credit Services · 331 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)37% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)42% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth35% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.3% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Credit Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orchard Funding Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORCH
Frequently asked questions
Is Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.5725 versus a price of £0.6050, about −5% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of ORCH?
Our model-based fair value for Orchard Funding Group PLC is £0.5725 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £0.6050.
What is the quality score of ORCH?
Orchard Funding Group PLC has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.5725 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.1566, optimistic scenario £0.9368. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orchard Funding Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £0.5725, about −5% upside versus a price of £0.6050 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £0.1566, optimistic scenario £0.9368. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Orchard Funding Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £8.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Orchard Funding Group PLC pay a dividend?
Orchard Funding Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.31% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orchard Funding Group PLC it is £0.5725 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of £0.6050. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orchard Funding Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, ORCH trades above its calculated fair value: price £0.6050, fair value £0.5725, a gap of about −5% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORCH?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£0.6050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£0.5725). For Orchard Funding Group PLC the two are £0.0325 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orchard Funding Group PLC worth?
The market values Orchard Funding Group PLC at about 12.9M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is £0.6050; our models calculate a fair value of £0.5725 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORCH?
Our models span a range for Orchard Funding Group PLC: cautious scenario £0.1566, base £0.5725, optimistic £0.9368 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price £0.6050). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ORCH?
Orchard Funding Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 4.3 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £0.5725 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 1.9, EV/EBITDA 4.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orchard Funding Group PLC (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 14.9%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORCH from its 52-week high?
Orchard Funding Group PLC trades at £0.6050, about 5% below its 52-week high of £0.6400 and 18% above the low of £0.5120 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £0.5725 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orchard Funding Group PLC?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Visa Inc, Mastercard Incorporated, American Express Company, Capital One Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orchard Funding Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price £0.6050, calculated fair value £0.5725 (−5%), Quality Score 67/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORCH calculated?
We run Orchard Funding Group PLC through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £0.5725, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Orchard Funding Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £0.6050. Our model-based fair value is £0.5725, about −5% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orchard Funding Group PLC right now?
The model range is unusually wide (£0.1566 to £0.9368). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH) come from?
Earnings per share at Orchard Funding Group PLC grew +9.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.9 %, EBIT margin −0.8 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Orchard Funding Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The market capitalisation of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 12.9M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 1.26 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Earnings per share at Orchard Funding Group PLC are £0.1400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 4.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The dividend yield of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 3.3% (payout 14.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The net margin of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 29.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 14.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 4.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
The operating margin of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 42.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Revenue at Orchard Funding Group PLC is growing +35.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +19.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH)?
Earnings per share at Orchard Funding Group PLC are growing +98.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH) generate?
The free cash flow of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 7.0M GBX (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Orchard Funding Group PLC (ORCH) carry?
The net debt of Orchard Funding Group PLC is 32.2M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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