Orexo AB (ORX) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · SE · Market cap 544M SEK

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 14.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
• The models converge in a tight band (kr 13.52 to kr 14.85), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
• Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range kr 8.99 – kr 41.78 · fair‑value band kr 13.52 – kr 14.85 · the kr 15.20 price screens above the kr 14.18 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.

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Analysis

Orexo AB (ORX) currently trades at kr 15.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 14.18, implying the stock looks roughly 6.7% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at 17.8M SEK. Revenue declined 62.1% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 420M SEK. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from kr 13.52 (bear case) to kr 14.85 (bull case); at kr 15.20, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 65% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at -49% fair-value upside, at -7%, ORX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: Growth DCF (kr 64.99) versus Asset-Based (kr 9.36). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Orexo AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, provides advance treatments for severe diseases and life-saving rescue medications in the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, and internationally.

Full company description

Orexo AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, provides advance treatments for severe diseases and life-saving rescue medications in the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid use disorder; Abstral for the treatment of breakthrough pain in cancer patients; Edluar for the treatment of insomnia; and Diabact UBT for the treatment of diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori. The company is developing Izipry for opioid overdose; OX640 to treat anaphylaxis with powder-based epinephrine; OX390 for overdoses caused by a combination of life-threatening illicit drugs; OX125 for opioid overdose with powder-based nalmefene; OX472 for intranasal formulation of semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, developed using proprietary AmorphOX technology; and develops thermostable and needle-free mucosal vaccines. Orexo AB (publ) was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Orexo AB reported revenue of kr 26.0M in FY2025 versus kr 565M in FY2021, a compound −53.7%/yr. Reported net income was −kr 130M in FY2025.

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Peer Group

Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 625 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.