Orexo AB (ORX) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 28, 2026: fair value of Orexo AB SEK 39.90, price SEK 13.30, upside +200.0%, quality 50 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Orexo AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, provides advance treatments for severe diseases and life-saving rescue medications in the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, and internationally.
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Orexo AB (publ), a pharmaceutical company, provides advance treatments for severe diseases and life-saving rescue medications in the United States, European Union, the United Kingdom, and internationally. Its products include Zubsolv tablets for the treatment of opioid use disorder; Abstral for the treatment of breakthrough pain in cancer patients; Edluar for the treatment of insomnia; and Diabact UBT for the treatment of diagnosis of Helicobacter pylori. The company is developing Izipry for opioid overdose; OX640 to treat anaphylaxis with powder-based epinephrine; OX390 for overdoses caused by a combination of life-threatening illicit drugs; OX125 for opioid overdose with powder-based nalmefene; OX472 for intranasal formulation of semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist, developed using proprietary AmorphOX technology; and develops thermostable and needle-free mucosal vaccines. Orexo AB (publ) was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Uppsala, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Orexo AB (ORX) currently trades at kr 13.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 39.90, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 60.05 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the kr 13.30 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at kr 9.36, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: kr 37.97 (bear) to kr 41.42 (bull), the price of kr 13.30 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Orexo AB reported revenue of 26.0M SEK in FY2025 versus 565M SEK in FY2021, a compound −53.7%/yr. Reported net income was −130M SEK in FY2025.
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 68% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at 200%, ORX screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 37.97Fair Value kr 39.90Bull kr 41.42
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−95.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−65.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−47.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −27.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.3% (2020) → −1,334.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 627 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside+200.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−51.3% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−97.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.99× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Orexo AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ORX
Frequently asked questions
Is Orexo AB (ORX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 39.90 versus a price of kr 13.30, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ORX?
Our model-based fair value for Orexo AB is kr 39.90 (as of Sep 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 13.30.
What is the quality score of ORX?
Orexo AB has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Orexo AB (ORX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 39.90 (as of Sep 27, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 37.97, optimistic scenario kr 41.42. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Orexo AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 39.90, about +200% upside versus a price of kr 13.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 37.97, optimistic scenario kr 41.42. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What growth is priced into Orexo AB (ORX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Orexo AB would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -47.7 % per year. As of Sep 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of ORX use?
Our models discount Orexo AB at 12.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Orexo AB that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Orexo AB (ORX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Orexo AB grew -47.7 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Orexo AB (ORX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Orexo AB (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Orexo AB (ORX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 37.57 %: that much free cash flow Orexo AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Orexo AB (ORX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Orexo AB it is kr 39.90 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026), against a price of kr 13.30. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Orexo AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 27, 2026, ORX trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 13.30, fair value kr 39.90, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ORX?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 13.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 39.90). For Orexo AB the two are kr 26.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Orexo AB worth?
The market values Orexo AB at about 544M SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 27, 2026). Per share that is kr 13.30; our models calculate a fair value of kr 39.90 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ORX?
Our models span a range for Orexo AB: cautious scenario kr 37.97, base kr 39.90, optimistic kr 41.42 per share (as of Sep 27, 2026, price kr 13.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of ORX?
The PEG ratio of Orexo AB is 13.07 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 27, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Orexo AB (ORX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Orexo AB (as of Sep 27, 2026): debt of 0.99 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ORX from its 52-week high?
Orexo AB trades at kr 13.30, about 68% below its 52-week high of kr 41.60 and 6% above the low of kr 12.50 (as of Sep 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 39.90 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Orexo AB?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Orexo AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 27, 2026: price kr 13.30, calculated fair value kr 39.90 (+200%), Quality Score 50/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ORX calculated?
We run Orexo AB through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 39.90, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.9 % above its aggregate fair value. Orexo AB currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Orexo AB (ORX)?
The closing price on Sep 28, 2026 was kr 13.30. Our model-based fair value is kr 39.90, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Orexo AB right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (kr 37.97). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (50/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The models converge in a tight band (kr 37.97 to kr 41.42), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
Key figures of Orexo AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Orexo AB (ORX)?
The market capitalisation of Orexo AB is 544M SEK (≈ $54.6M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Orexo AB (ORX)?
Earnings per share at Orexo AB are kr −12.16. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Orexo AB (ORX)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Orexo AB is −1,294% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Orexo AB (ORX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Orexo AB is −20.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Orexo AB (ORX)?
The operating margin of Orexo AB is −2,949% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How much revenue does Orexo AB (ORX) generate?
Orexo AB generates revenue of −96.9M SEK (last twelve months). Revenue of the last twelve months (TTM), the most recent full year, not the calendar year.
How fast is revenue growing at Orexo AB (ORX)?
Revenue at Orexo AB is growing −97.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −65.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Orexo AB (ORX)?
Earnings per share at Orexo AB are growing +485% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Orexo AB (ORX) hold?
Orexo AB holds more cash than debt, 420M SEK net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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