Pigeon Corp (PGENY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Pigeon Corp $2.48, price $3.00, upside -17.3%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.05 – $9.02 · fair‑value band $1.86 – $3.11 · the $3.00 price screens above the $2.48 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Pigeon Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, import, and export of baby and child-care products, maternity items, women's care products, home healthcare products, and nursing care products in Japan and internationally.
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Pigeon Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, import, and export of baby and child-care products, maternity items, women's care products, home healthcare products, and nursing care products in Japan and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Japan Business, China Business, Singapore Business, and Lansinoh Business. The company is also involved in the provision of baby and mother care products, such as nursing bottles and nipples, toiletries, breast pads, breast pumps, nipple care products, nipple care cream, breast milk storage bags, and breastfeeding-related products under Pigeon and Lansinoh brands. It also offers non-woven products, baby strollers, aging-prevention products, wet wipes, high-end skincare products, cleaning and disinfecting products, child-rearing support, healthcare, and elder care products and services. In addition, the company provides child-minding and daycare services, toiletries, home nursing care support services, operation of in-company childcare facilities. Further, it offers day-care services, event childcare services, preschool education services, and at-home elder care services. The company was formerly known as Pigeon Honyuki Honpo Corporation and changed its name to Pigeon Corporation in 1966. Pigeon Corporation was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Pigeon Corp ADR (PGENY) currently trades at $3.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.48, implying the stock looks roughly 21.0% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $2.80 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the $3.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8162, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.86 (bear) to $3.11 (bull), the price of $3.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pigeon Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥114B in FY2025 versus ¥93.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥9.0B in FY2025, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.4B · P/E ratio 27.3 · P/S ratio 2.14 · EPS (TTM) $0.1100 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 10.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 63 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −17%, PGENY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.86Fair Value $2.48Bull $3.11
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3% vs −1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.1% a year for the price and +1.4% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 246 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−17% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)11% · Above median
Return on assets8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth10% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
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As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.48 versus a price of $3.00, about −17% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PGENY?
Our model-based fair value for Pigeon Corp ADR is $2.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.00.
What is the quality score of PGENY?
Pigeon Corp ADR has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.48 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.86, optimistic scenario $3.11. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pigeon Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.48, about −17% upside versus a price of $3.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.86, optimistic scenario $3.11. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Pigeon Corp ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥112B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Pigeon Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Pigeon Corp ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.99% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pigeon Corp ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +7.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGENY use?
Our models discount Pigeon Corp ADR at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pigeon Corp ADR that is +7.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pigeon Corp (PGENY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pigeon Corp ADR grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +7.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pigeon Corp (PGENY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pigeon Corp ADR (+7.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.73 %: that much free cash flow Pigeon Corp ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pigeon Corp ADR it is $2.48 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $3.00. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Pigeon Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PGENY trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.00, fair value $2.48, a gap of about −17% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGENY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.48). For Pigeon Corp ADR the two are $0.5200 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pigeon Corp ADR worth?
The market values Pigeon Corp ADR at about $1.4B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $3.00; our models calculate a fair value of $2.48 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGENY?
Our models span a range for Pigeon Corp ADR: cautious scenario $1.86, base $2.48, optimistic $3.11 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $3.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGENY?
Pigeon Corp ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.3 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.48 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 10.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pigeon Corp ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 10.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGENY from its 52-week high?
Pigeon Corp ADR trades at $3.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of $3.38 and 20% above the low of $2.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.48 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pigeon Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Procter & Gamble Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pigeon Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $3.00, calculated fair value $2.48 (−17%), Quality Score 77/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGENY calculated?
We run Pigeon Corp ADR through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.48, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Pigeon Corp ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $3.00. Our model-based fair value is $2.48, about −17% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pigeon Corp ADR right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Pigeon Corp (PGENY) come from?
Earnings per share at Pigeon Corp ADR grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pigeon Corp ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The market capitalisation of Pigeon Corp ADR is $1.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pigeon Corp ADR is 2.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Earnings per share at Pigeon Corp ADR are $0.1100 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The dividend yield of Pigeon Corp ADR is 4.0% (payout 109%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The net margin of Pigeon Corp ADR is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pigeon Corp ADR is 10.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pigeon Corp ADR is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The operating margin of Pigeon Corp ADR is 13.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Revenue at Pigeon Corp ADR is growing +9.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Earnings per share at Pigeon Corp ADR are growing −1.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pigeon Corp (PGENY) hold?
Pigeon Corp ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥38.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026