Pigeon Corp (PGENY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pigeon Corp stock $2.51, price $3.41, that is 26.4% below the price, quality 77 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.86 – $8.18 · fair‑value band $1.98 – $3.19 · the $3.41 price screens above the $2.51 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 6, 2026.
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Pigeon Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, import, and export of baby and child-care products, maternity items, women's care products, home healthcare products, and nursing care products in Japan and internationally.
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The company operates through four segments: Japan Business, China Business, Singapore Business, and Lansinoh Business.
The company is also involved in the provision of baby and mother care products, such as nursing bottles and nipples, toiletries, breast pads, breast pumps, nipple care products, nipple care cream, breast milk storage bags, and breastfeeding-related products under Pigeon and Lansinoh brands.
It also offers non-woven products, baby strollers, aging-prevention products, wet wipes, high-end skincare products, cleaning and disinfecting products, child-rearing support, healthcare, and elder care products and services.
In addition, the company provides child-minding and daycare services, toiletries, home nursing care support services, operation of in-company childcare facilities. Further, it offers day-care services, event childcare services, preschool education services, and at-home elder care services.
The company was formerly known as Pigeon Honyuki Honpo Corporation and changed its name to Pigeon Corporation in 1966. Pigeon Corporation was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Pigeon Corp (PGENY) currently trades at $3.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.51, 26% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.19 per share, and 4 of the 25 models we run sit above the $3.41 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.6500, and 21 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.98 (bear) to $3.19 (bull), the price of $3.41 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Pigeon Corp ADR reported revenue of ¥114B in FY2025 versus ¥93.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥9.0B in FY2025, compounding +0.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.6B Small · P/E ratio 28.4 · P/S ratio 2.23 · EPS (TTM) $0.1200 · Dividend yield 3.6% · Net margin 7.9% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −26%, PGENY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.98Fair Value $2.51Bull$3.19
Price $3.41 · Downside -26.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1026 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.2% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+0.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.3% vs −1.2%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.15% → 12%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +7.9% a year for the price and +2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (9 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 230 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−26.4% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Return on assets8.2% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)8.0% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)13.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)9.7% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.6% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)28.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.11× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.26× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)24.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA11.5× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 36
FUTURE (revenue growth)49· sector 20
PAST (return on equity)45· sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)73· sector 53
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Nov 6, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.51 versus a price of $3.41, about 26% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PGENY?
Our model-based fair value for Pigeon Corp is $2.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.41.
What is the quality score of PGENY?
Pigeon Corp has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.51 (as of Nov 6, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.98, optimistic scenario $3.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pigeon Corp ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.51, about 26% lower versus a price of $3.41 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.98, optimistic scenario $3.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Pigeon Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥114B (latest available figure, as of Nov 6, 2026).
Does Pigeon Corp ADR pay a dividend?
Pigeon Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 3.63% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 6, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Pigeon Corp (PGENY) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Pigeon Corp has a dividend yield of 3.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jun 30, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2012. The payout ratio is 104% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.15 times. Our assessment: Payout strained. The dividend exceeds reported earnings (though reported profit is often depressed by one-off charges), and free cash flow only just covers it (or coverage is unknown). Not an emergency, but little room for error.
What growth is priced into Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pigeon Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +10.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Nov 6, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PGENY use?
Our models discount Pigeon Corp at 9.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pigeon Corp that is +10.1 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pigeon Corp (PGENY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pigeon Corp grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +10.1 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pigeon Corp (PGENY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pigeon Corp (+10.1 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.16 %: that much free cash flow Pigeon Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pigeon Corp it is $2.51 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026), against a price of $3.41. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pigeon Corp ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 6, 2026, PGENY trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.41, fair value $2.51, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PGENY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.41); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.51). For Pigeon Corp the two are $0.9000 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pigeon Corp ADR worth?
The market values Pigeon Corp at about $1.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 6, 2026). Per share that is $3.41; our models calculate a fair value of $2.51 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PGENY?
Our models span a range for Pigeon Corp: cautious scenario $1.98, base $2.51, optimistic $3.19 per share (as of Nov 6, 2026, price $3.41). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PGENY?
Pigeon Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.4 (as of Nov 6, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.51 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.1, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 11.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pigeon Corp (as of Nov 6, 2026): return on equity 11.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PGENY from its 52-week high?
Pigeon Corp trades at $3.41, at its 52-week high of $3.41 and 51% above the low of $2.26 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.51 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pigeon Corp ADR?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, The Estée Lauder Companies Inc, Henkel AG, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pigeon Corp ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 6, 2026: price $3.41, calculated fair value $2.51 (−26%), Quality Score 77/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PGENY calculated?
We run Pigeon Corp through 25 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.51 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Pigeon Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.41. Our model-based fair value is $2.51, about 26% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pigeon Corp ADR right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Where does the earnings growth of Pigeon Corp (PGENY) come from?
Earnings per share at Pigeon Corp grew −2.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +1.6 %, EBIT margin −3.4 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Pigeon Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The market capitalisation of Pigeon Corp is $1.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pigeon Corp is 2.23 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Earnings per share at Pigeon Corp are $0.1200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The dividend yield of Pigeon Corp is 3.6% (payout 103%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The net margin of Pigeon Corp is 7.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pigeon Corp is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pigeon Corp is 12.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
The operating margin of Pigeon Corp is 13.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Revenue at Pigeon Corp is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pigeon Corp (PGENY)?
Earnings per share at Pigeon Corp are growing +27.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Pigeon Corp (PGENY) hold?
Pigeon Corp holds more cash than debt, ¥38.3B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Nov 6, 2026