Pennant Group Inc (PNTG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Pennant Group Inc stock $12.45, price $36.36, that is 65.8% below the price, quality 41 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $9.13 – $44.04 · fair‑value band $6.24 – $23.00 · the $36.36 price screens above the $12.45 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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The Pennant Group, Inc. provides healthcare services in the United States. It operates in two segments, Home Health and Hospice Services, and Senior Living Services.
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The company offers home health services, including clinical services, such as nursing, speech, occupational and physical therapy, medical social work, and home health aide services; and hospice services comprising clinical care, education, and counseling services for the physical, spiritual, and psychosocial needs of terminally ill patients and their families.
It also provides senior living services, such as residential accommodations, activities, meals, housekeeping, and assistance in the activities of daily living to seniors who are independent or who require some support.
The company operates home health, hospice, and home care agencies, as well as senior living communities in Alabama, Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oklahoma, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Washington, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.
The Company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Eagle, Idaho.
Stock analysis
Pennant Group Inc (PNTG) currently trades at $36.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.45, 66% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $22.45 per share, and 1 of the 22 models we run sit above the $36.36 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $6.36, and 21 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $6.24 (bear) to $23.00 (bull), the price of $36.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Pennant Group Inc reported revenue of $948M in FY2025 versus $440M in FY2021, a compound +21.2%/yr. Reported net income was $29.6M in FY2025, compounding +82.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.3B Small · P/E ratio 39.5 · P/S ratio 1.11 · EPS (TTM) $0.9200 · Net margin 3.1% · Return on equity 11.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin 5.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 36 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −1% fair-value upside, at −66%, PNTG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$6.24Fair Value $12.45Bull$23.00
Price $36.36 · Downside -65.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.7864 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $690,087 and none bought.
SaleKirk Sterling CheneyEVP, GC and Corp Secy1,393 shares at $38.52$53,658Aug 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleBrent GuerisoliChief Executive Officer4× since May 22, 2026: 15,117 shares, avg. $38.55$582,732Aug 6, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleJason Paul SteikChief Clinical Officer1,394 shares at $38.52$53,697Aug 6, 202610b5-1 plan
Plus 18 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.85/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+36.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+19.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
≈ +54.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +54.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 56.9% / 11.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 5%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.12 per share, median 0.35 in 2016 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+35.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+10.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +32.7% a year for the price and +7.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 233 stocks
Beats the industry median on 3/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−65.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.2% · Above median
Return on assets3.1% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)5.8% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)32.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.93× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Pennant Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PNTG
Frequently asked questions
Is Pennant Group Inc (PNTG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.45 versus a price of $36.36, about 66% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PNTG?
Our model-based fair value for Pennant Group Inc is $12.45 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.36.
What is the quality score of PNTG?
Pennant Group Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.45 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.24, optimistic scenario $23.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Pennant Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.45, about 66% lower versus a price of $36.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $6.24, optimistic scenario $23.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Pennant Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
What growth is priced into Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Pennant Group Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +35.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +19.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of PNTG use?
Our models discount Pennant Group Inc at 12.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.30, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Pennant Group Inc that is +35.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Pennant Group Inc (PNTG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Pennant Group Inc grew +19.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +35.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Pennant Group Inc (+35.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.01 %: that much free cash flow Pennant Group Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Pennant Group Inc it is $12.45 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $36.36. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Pennant Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, PNTG trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.36, fair value $12.45, a gap of about −66% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PNTG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.45). For Pennant Group Inc the two are $23.91 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Pennant Group Inc worth?
The market values Pennant Group Inc at about $1.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $36.36; our models calculate a fair value of $12.45 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PNTG?
Our models span a range for Pennant Group Inc: cautious scenario $6.24, base $12.45, optimistic $23.00 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $36.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of PNTG?
Pennant Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.5 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.45 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.4 (reported for FY2025: 43.3). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 7 fiscal years (2019 to 2025), reported earnings, 6 of the years ex one-offs: 42.7. Other multiples: PEG 2.0, P/B 3.9, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 17.5.
What is the PEG ratio of PNTG?
The PEG ratio of Pennant Group Inc is 1.97 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Pennant Group Inc (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 11.2%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PNTG from its 52-week high?
Pennant Group Inc trades at $36.36, about 17% below its 52-week high of $44.04 and 53% above the low of $23.75 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.45 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Pennant Group Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Pennant Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $36.36, calculated fair value $12.45 (−66%), Quality Score 41/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PNTG calculated?
We run Pennant Group Inc through 22 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $12.45 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Pennant Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $36.36. Our model-based fair value is $12.45, about 66% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Pennant Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($23.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($6.24 to $23.00). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Pennant Group Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The market capitalisation of Pennant Group Inc is $1.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Pennant Group Inc is 1.11 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Earnings per share at Pennant Group Inc are $0.9200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The net margin of Pennant Group Inc is 3.1% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Pennant Group Inc is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Pennant Group Inc is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
The operating margin of Pennant Group Inc is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Revenue at Pennant Group Inc is growing +32.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Pennant Group Inc (PNTG)?
Earnings per share at Pennant Group Inc are growing +52.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Pennant Group Inc (PNTG) carry?
The net debt of Pennant Group Inc is $436M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 16.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 7, 2026