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XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of XL Axiata Tbk PT $2.22, price $2.90, upside -23.4%, quality 23 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Communication Services · US · ADR · Home Indonesia · ISIN US69369R1005

XA XL Axiata Tbk PT logo Thin data Sep 24, 2026

XL Axiata Tbk PT

PTXKY · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $2.22 · Overvalued (−23%)
!Quality 23/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -12.1% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
·10.39% dividend yield
!Trails peers (3/12)
!Narrow moat 18/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on valuation: 2 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$5.44 $2.05 Fair Value $2.22 Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.05 – $5.44 · fair‑value band $1.32 – $3.56 · the $2.90 price screens above the $2.22 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication, telecommunications network, and multimedia services for consumers and businesses in Indonesia. It operates through the GSM Mobile and Telecommunications Network Services, and Managed and Information Technology Services.

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PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunication, telecommunications network, and multimedia services for consumers and businesses in Indonesia. It operates through the GSM Mobile and Telecommunications Network Services, and Managed and Information Technology Services. The company provides cellular mobile and closed fixed network, Internet, Internet telephony and interconnection, data communication system, packet switched local fixed network, telephony, and voice over Internet protocol services. It also offers digital content and home broadband services; voice and short message services; data and digital services; mobile communication services; call center services; and other telecommunication services, such as subscriber identity module (SIM) cards, and leased lines and towers. PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk was formerly known as PT XL Axiata Tbk and changed its name to PT XLSMART Telecom Sejahtera Tbk in April 2025. The company was founded in 1989 and is headquartered in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.

Stock analysis

XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR (PTXKY) currently trades at $2.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.22, implying the stock looks roughly 30.5% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $1.86 per share, and 3 of the 11 models we run sit above the $2.90 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.3110, and 8 of the 11 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $1.32 (bear) to $3.56 (bull), the price of $2.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 23/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR reported revenue of 42.8T IDR in FY2025 versus 26.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +12.5%/yr. Reported net income was −4.5T IDR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.6B · EPS (TTM) $−0.3800 · Dividend yield 10.4% · Net margin −10.4% · Return on equity −20.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% · Revenue (TTM) $39.6T · Revenue growth (YoY) +37.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 48% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −23%, PTXKY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.32 Fair Value $2.22 Bull $3.56
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $1.50 $2.61 $4.33 78
Growth DCF $1.51 $2.57 $4.19 76
Owner Earnings $1.04 $1.86 $3.13 74
All 11 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.50 $2.61 $4.33 78
Owner Earnings $1.04 $1.86 $3.13 74
5Y Revenue Exit $0.9527 $1.63 $2.49 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $1.80 $3.29 $5.07 74
10Y Revenue Exit $1.11 $1.78 $2.70 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $1.67 $2.93 $4.70 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.21 $3.05 $3.88 67
EV/Revenue $0.6919 $1.11 $1.53 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $0.2321 $0.3110 $0.4642 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.51 $2.57 $4.19 76
Rev-Margin DCF $0.9527 $1.64 $2.47 71

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 23/100

Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38

Profitability 6
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 61
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 24
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 42
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 41
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 53/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+24.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.5% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.3%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.7% (2020) → −0.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

PTXKY screens 30% overvalued. Compare with China Mobile Limited →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 253 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 23 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −23% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −12% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 0% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 37% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 10.4% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.72× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 1.6× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.88× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)2 · sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 15
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)64 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 78

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 80941 HK$67.45 HK$114.85 +70%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $162.41 $270.48 +67%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $46.45 $69.92 +51%
AT&T Inc T $25.10 $50.40 +101%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,817 ₹1,883 +4%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.12 ¥8.36 +37%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $22.29 $32.77 +47%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 4.32 SGD 2.15 SGD −50%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 651.00 CHF 505.18 −22%
Telstra Group TLS A$4.81 A$3.31 −31%

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XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR · Fair Value
$2.22 −30%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PTXKY

Frequently asked questions

Is XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.22 versus a price of $2.90, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PTXKY?
Our model-based fair value for XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is $2.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.90.
What is the quality score of PTXKY?
XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR has a Quality Score of 23/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.22 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 11 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.32, optimistic scenario $3.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.22, about −23% upside versus a price of $2.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.32, optimistic scenario $3.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.6T (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR pay a dividend?
XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 10.39% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR it is $2.22 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.90. It is the blended result of 11 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, PTXKY trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.90, fair value $2.22, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PTXKY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.22). For XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR the two are $0.6770 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR worth?
The market values XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR at about $2.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.90; our models calculate a fair value of $2.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PTXKY?
Our models span a range for XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR: cautious scenario $1.32, base $2.22, optimistic $3.56 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of PTXKY?
The PEG ratio of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
Balance-sheet figures for XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −20.1%, debt of 0.72 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 23/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PTXKY from its 52-week high?
XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR trades at $2.90, about 48% below its 52-week high of $5.60 and 11% above the low of $2.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.90, calculated fair value $2.22 (−23%), Quality Score 23/100, from 11 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of PTXKY calculated?
We run XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR through 11 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $2.90. Our model-based fair value is $2.22, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR right now?
Weak quality (23/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.32 to $3.56). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Key figures of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR

How large is the market capitalisation of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
The market capitalisation of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is $2.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
Earnings per share at XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR are $−0.3800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
The dividend yield of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is 10.4%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
The net margin of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is −10.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is −20.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is 4.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How fast is revenue growing at XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
Revenue at XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is growing +37.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY)?
Earnings per share at XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR are growing −28.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY) generate?
The free cash flow of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is $7.0T (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does XL Axiata Tbk PT (PTXKY) carry?
The net debt of XL Axiata Tbk PT ADR is $60.2T (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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