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Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc stock $102, price $169, that is 39.5% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Healthcare US

PT Palvella Therapeutics, Inc logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc

PVLA · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.

Insiders sold $11.2M (6M)
Fair value $102.05 · Strongly overvalued
Quality 37/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y +0.5 %/yr in USD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/6)
Narrow moat 3/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$468.00 $6.53 Fair Value $102.05 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.53 – $468.00 · fair‑value band $76.54 – $127.57 · the $168.71 price screens above the $102.05 fair value. As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc., a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, focuses on developing and commercializing novel therapies to treat patients serious and rare genetic skin diseases.

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The company's lead product candidate is QTORIN rapamycin, a novel, 3.9% anhydrous topical gel that is in Phase 3 clinical trial for the treatment of microcystic lymphatic malformations, as well as in Phase 2 clinical trial to treat cutaneous venous malformations.

It also develops QTORIN rapamycin for the treatment of angiokeratomas and other mTOR-driven skin diseases; and QTORIN pitavastatin for the treatment of disseminated superficial actinic porokeratosis. The company is based in Wayne, Pennsylvania.

Stock analysis

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA) currently trades at $168.71, while our estimate is $102.05, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: $76.54 (bear) to $127.57 (bull), the price of $168.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

Palvella Therapeutics, Inc reported revenue of $0 in FY2025 versus $31.4M in FY2021. Reported net income was −$41.7M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $2.4B Mid · EPS (TTM) $−5.53 · Return on equity −63.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) −107% (5-year average) · Free cash flow −$25.0M · Net cash $57.3M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 3 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 121% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −40%, PVLA screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear $76.54 Fair Value $102.05 Bull $127.57
Price $168.71 · Downside -39.5%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 37/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 18
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 53
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 92
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 80
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 96
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 3 officers or directors sold shares worth $11.2M and none bought.

  • SaleKathleen GoinChief Operating Officer12× since Nov 19, 2025: 51,635 shares, avg. $117.05$6.0MOct 21, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleGeorge M JenkinsDirector2× since Sep 11, 2026: 55,000 shares, avg. $140.85$7.7MOct 14, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleChristopher P KiritsyDirector313 shares at $157.00$49,141Sep 2, 2026
  • BuyGeorge M JenkinsDirector2× since Feb 27, 2026: 4,445 shares, avg. $123.73$549,974Mar 30, 2026
  • BuyElaine J HeronDirector2,400 shares at $125.00$300,000Feb 27, 2026

Plus 8 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 10, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.5%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−57.7% (2017) → −167.8% (2022)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

PVLA screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 849 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/5 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 37 · Below median
Fair Value upside −39.5% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets −70.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 0.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 0.0% · Above median

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $916.06 $1,275 +39% vs PVLA
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,468,000 KRW 1,661,000 KRW +13% vs PVLA
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $547.89 $601.80 +10% vs PVLA
Genmab A/S GMAB kr 3,581 kr 3,880 +8% vs PVLA
argenx SE ARGX $971.55 $908.40 −7% vs PVLA
CSL Limited CSL A$201.68 A$181.40 −10% vs PVLA
Moderna, Inc MRNA $250.83 $158.70 −37% vs PVLA
BeOne Medicines AG 6160 HK$252.20 HK$152.80 −39% vs PVLA
Celltrion, Inc 068270 203,000 KRW 74,945 KRW −63% vs PVLA
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $69.45 $19.01 −73% vs PVLA

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Palvella Therapeutics, Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Palvella Therapeutics, Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PVLA

Frequently asked questions

Is Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is $102.05 versus a price of $168.71, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PVLA?
Our estimate for Palvella Therapeutics, Inc is $102.05 (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $168.71.
What is the quality score of PVLA?
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of $102.05 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario $76.54, optimistic scenario $127.57. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Palvella Therapeutics, Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at $102.05, about 40% lower versus a price of $168.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $76.54, optimistic scenario $127.57. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Palvella Therapeutics, Inc it is $102.05 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of $168.71.
Is Palvella Therapeutics, Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, PVLA trades above its calculated fair value: price $168.71, fair value $102.05, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of PVLA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($168.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($102.05). For Palvella Therapeutics, Inc the two are $66.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Palvella Therapeutics, Inc worth?
The market values Palvella Therapeutics, Inc at about $2.4B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is $168.71; our models calculate a fair value of $102.05 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about PVLA?
Our models span a range for Palvella Therapeutics, Inc: cautious scenario $76.54, base $102.05, optimistic $127.57 per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price $168.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −63.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is PVLA from its 52-week high?
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc trades at $168.71, about 4% below its 52-week high of $175.92 and 121% above the low of $76.43 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $102.05 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Palvella Therapeutics, Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Moderna, Inc, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Palvella Therapeutics, Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price $168.71, calculated fair value $102.05 (−40%), Quality Score 37/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Palvella Therapeutics, Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was $168.71. Our estimate is $102.05, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Palvella Therapeutics, Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($127.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
The market capitalisation of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc is $2.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
Earnings per share at Palvella Therapeutics, Inc are $−5.53. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc is −63.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc is −107% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
How much free cash flow does Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA) generate?
The free cash flow of Palvella Therapeutics, Inc is −$25.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Palvella Therapeutics, Inc (PVLA) hold?
Palvella Therapeutics, Inc holds more cash than debt, $57.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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