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NatWest Group (RBSPF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of NatWest Group $10.42, price $8.82, upside +18.1%, quality 36 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Financial Services · US · Home United Kingdom · ISIN GB00BM8PJY71

NG NatWest Group logo Broad data Sep 29, 2026

NatWest Group

RBSPF · US

SpeculativeUpside exists, but weak quality makes the signal speculative.

✓Fair value $10.42 · Undervalued (+18.1%)
!Quality 36/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +31.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 36.9% net margin (TTM)
!Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
!3.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 60/100

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$9.71 $0.8299 Fair Value $10.42 Nov 2018 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $0.8299 – $9.71 · fair‑value band $7.81 – $13.02 · the $8.82 price screens below the $10.42 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.

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Company profile

NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments.

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NatWest Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides banking and financial products and services in the United Kingdom and internationally. It operates through the Retail Banking, Private Banking, and Commercial & Institutional segments. The Retail Banking segment offers a range of banking products and related financial services, such as current accounts, mortgages, personal unsecured lending, and personal deposits, as well as mobile and online banking services. Its Private Banking segment provides banking, lending, and wealth management products for high-net-worth individuals and their business interests. The Commercial & Institutional segment consists of customer businesses under business banking, commercial mid-market, and corporates and institutions; and offers banking operations services in the Channel Islands, Isle of Man, Gibraltar, and Luxembourg, as well as products and solutions for businesses comprising start-ups, corporates, and large institutions. The company was formerly known as The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc and changed its name to NatWest Group plc in July 2020. NatWest Group plc was founded in 1727 and is headquartered in Edinburgh, the United Kingdom.

Stock analysis

NatWest Group (RBSPF) currently trades at $8.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.42, implying the stock looks roughly 15.4% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $9.92 per share, and 2 of the 4 models we run sit above the $8.82 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.75, and 2 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $7.81 (bear) to $13.02 (bull), the price of $8.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

NatWest Group reported revenue of £29.8B in FY2025 versus £11.7B in FY2021, a compound +26.2%/yr. Reported net income was £5.8B in FY2025, compounding +15.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $96.6B · P/E ratio 9.4 · P/S ratio 1.83 · EPS (TTM) $0.9400 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin 19.5% · Return on equity 14.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 18%, RBSPF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $7.81 Fair Value $10.42 Bull $13.02
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4650 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $6.87 $8.42 $11.98 75
P/E Multiple $9.46 $12.61 $15.76 63
P/B Multiple $7.44 $9.92 $12.40 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $9.46 $12.61 $15.76 63
P/B Multiple $7.44 $9.92 $12.40 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.54 $4.75 $7.09 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.87 $8.42 $11.98 75

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 36/100

Of which business quality 34 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61

Profitability 33
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 0
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 40
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 56
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 59
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 69
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 25
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+108.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+32.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.5% vs 0.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−2% → 26%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.38 €4.06 −36%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.54 €105.99 +16%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹721.20 ₹406.44 −44%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.01 SGD 19.78 SGD −38%
Al Rajhi Banking and Investment Corporation 1120 63.15 SAR 36.95 SAR −41%
CaixaBank, S.A CABK €12.03 €8.46 −30%

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NatWest Group · Fair Value
$10.42 +15%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "NatWest Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RBSPF

Frequently asked questions

Is NatWest Group (RBSPF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $10.42 versus a price of $8.82, about +18% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RBSPF?
Our model-based fair value for NatWest Group is $10.42 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.82.
What is the quality score of RBSPF?
NatWest Group has a Quality Score of 36/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $10.42 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $7.81, optimistic scenario $13.02. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the NatWest Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $10.42, about +18% upside versus a price of $8.82 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $7.81, optimistic scenario $13.02. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
NatWest Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £16.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does NatWest Group pay a dividend?
NatWest Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For NatWest Group it is $10.42 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $8.82. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is NatWest Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, RBSPF trades below its calculated fair value: price $8.82, fair value $10.42, a gap of about +18% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RBSPF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($10.42). For NatWest Group the two are $1.60 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is NatWest Group worth?
The market values NatWest Group at about $96.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $8.82; our models calculate a fair value of $10.42 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RBSPF?
Our models span a range for NatWest Group: cautious scenario $7.81, base $10.42, optimistic $13.02 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $8.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RBSPF from its 52-week high?
NatWest Group trades at $8.82, about 9% below its 52-week high of $9.71 and 32% above the low of $6.67 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $10.42 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to NatWest Group?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is NatWest Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $8.82, calculated fair value $10.42 (+18%), Quality Score 36/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RBSPF calculated?
We run NatWest Group through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $10.42, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. NatWest Group currently trades 15 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.82. Our model-based fair value is $10.42, about +18% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with NatWest Group right now?
For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Key figures of NatWest Group

How large is the market capitalisation of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The market capitalisation of NatWest Group is $96.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of NatWest Group is 9.4. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of NatWest Group is 1.83 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
Earnings per share at NatWest Group are $0.9400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The dividend yield of NatWest Group is 3.7% (payout 34.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The net margin of NatWest Group is 19.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of NatWest Group is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of NatWest Group is 0.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
The operating margin of NatWest Group is 50.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
Revenue at NatWest Group is growing +7.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +32.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at NatWest Group (RBSPF)?
Earnings per share at NatWest Group are growing +15.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does NatWest Group (RBSPF) generate?
The free cash flow of NatWest Group is −£17.3B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does NatWest Group (RBSPF) hold?
NatWest Group holds more cash than debt, £13.5B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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