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Redelfi S.p.A (RDF) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · IT · Market cap €130M

RS Redelfi S.p.A RDF · MI
Price€10.86
Fair Value€4.61
Upside-57.6%
Quality30/100
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Mixed Growth
Moderate debt · negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Wide moat 67/100
Evidence: Medium Range €3.38 – €5.70 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated 23 days ago

Share price −3.4% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 58% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (30/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
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Price vs Fair Value (4 years)

€13.12 €0.6781 Fair Value €4.61 Jun 2022 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

50‑month range €0.6781 – €13.12 · fair‑value band €3.38 – €5.70 · the €10.86 price screens above the €4.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Redelfi S.p.A (RDF) currently trades at €10.86, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.61, implying the stock looks roughly 57.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 30/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at €1.9M. Revenue declined 42.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.8%. Net debt stands at €22.8M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €3.38 (bear case) to €5.70 (bull case); at €10.86, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -58%, RDF screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
ROIC Compounder €2.78 €4.16 €5.11 72
Growth-Adj P/E €7.50 €10.72 €13.94 68
P/E Multiple €3.98 €5.31 €6.64 63
All 13 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €1.72 €11.99 €16.83 54
Lynch FV €5.63 €8.05 €10.46 50
PEG = 1.0 €5.63 €8.05 €10.46 46
EPV €2.24 €2.70 €3.08 59
Multiples
P/E Multiple €3.98 €5.31 €6.64 63
P/S Multiple €0.4100 €0.5400 €0.6800 58
P/B Multiple €3.22 €4.30 €5.37 55
EV/EBIT €7.06 €9.94 €12.82 53
EV/EBITDA €6.41 €9.07 €11.73 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €0.8000 €1.07 €1.60 50
Economic Profit
Residual Income €1.47 €1.77 €3.53 61
ROIC Compounder €2.78 €4.16 €5.11 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €7.50 €10.72 €13.94 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (€10.72) versus Asset-Based (€1.07). Highest evidence: ROIC Compounder (72).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) €1.9M
Revenue growth (YoY) -42.7%
Net margin 278%
Return on equity 21.8%
Free cash flow −€13.0M FY2024
P/E ratio 24.6
More key figures
Operating margin 446%
EPS (TTM) €0.4600
EPS growth (YoY) +108%
Net debt €22.8M FY2024

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 30/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69

Profitability 45
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 26
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 0
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 70
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 60
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 82
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 12
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Redelfi S.p.A. operates as an ESG management company worldwide. It engages in the management of mini hydroelectric and photovoltaic plants; battery development energy storage system park; Sub-holding equity investments; reforestation; accumulates and sells power.

Full company description

Redelfi S.p.A. operates as an ESG management company worldwide. It engages in the management of mini hydroelectric and photovoltaic plants; battery development energy storage system park; Sub-holding equity investments; reforestation; accumulates and sells power. The company is also involved in the provision of consulting services related to the development of software. Redelfi S.p.A. was founded in 2008 and is based in Genoa, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years

Redelfi S.p.A reported revenue of €3.1M in FY2024 versus €716K in FY2021, a compound +63.2%/yr. Reported net income was €2.9M in FY2024, compounding −5.9%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 54/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2024)
€3.1M
Latest YoY
+8.8%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+63.2%
Revenue +63.2%/yr
FY21 €716K
FY22 €3.0M
FY23 €2.9M
FY24 €3.1M
Net income −5.9%/yr
FY21 €3.5M
FY22 €263K
FY23 €2.2M
FY24 €2.9M

RDF screens 58% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Redelfi S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RDF

Peer Group

Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 30 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −58% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 22% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -43% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 1.34× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 24.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 8.15× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 79.84× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.9× · Pricier than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 12
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 87 · sector 12
HEALTH 33 · sector 68
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Yangtze Power Co 600900 ¥27.99 ¥25.13 -10%
Ørsted A/S ORSTED kr 149.70 kr 31.40 -79%
Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 ¥9.81 ¥5.57 -43%
Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN ₹1,537 ₹170.50 -89%
AXIA Energia SA AXIAP $10.74 $9.65 -10%
VERBUND AG OEWA €58.65 €66.19 +13%
BEP BEP $32.33 $73.35 +127%
BEPUN BEPUN C$44.56 C$10.15 -77%
Fortum Oyj FORTUM €19.89 €13.90 -30%
China Longyuan Power Group 001289 ¥16.21 ¥8.23 -49%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Redelfi S.p.A (RDF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.61 versus a price of €10.86, about −58% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RDF?
Our model-based fair value for Redelfi S.p.A is €4.61 (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is €10.86.
What is the quality score of RDF?
Redelfi S.p.A has a Quality Score of 30/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Redelfi S.p.A (RDF)?
Redelfi S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €1.9M (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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