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Redwood Financial Inc (REDW) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 27, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Redwood Financial Inc stock $112, price $185, that is 39.7% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 6 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

RF Redwood Financial Inc logo Broad data Nov 9, 2026

Redwood Financial Inc

REDW · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 40% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 16.5% net margin (TTM)
Broad data
Profit last quarter +30% vs. a year ago.
Quality 46/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +9.4 %/yr in USD)
Moderate moat 58/100 · thin data
Fair value $111.54 · Strongly overvalued
Trails peers (2/14)
⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$291.87 $25.82 Fair Value $111.54 Jun 2015 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $25.82 – $291.87 · fair‑value band $101.74 – $135.46 · the $185.00 price screens above the $111.54 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.

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Company profile

Redwood Financial, Inc. operates as a financial holding company of HomeTown Bank, a state-chartered bank that provides banking and financial services in south central and south western Minnesota.

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It offers various deposit and savings plans; and mortgage, commercial, agricultural, and consumer lending products.

The company also provides property, casualty, crop, captive, and health/life insurance products and services; issues preferred trust securities to independent entities; and provides credit cards. The company was founded in 1924 and is based in Redwood Falls, Minnesota.

Stock analysis

Redwood Financial Inc (REDW) currently trades at $185.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $111.54, 40% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $147.87 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $185.00 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $29.34, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $101.74 (bear) to $135.46 (bull), the price of $185.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Redwood Financial Inc reported revenue of $39.2M in FY2025 versus $22.4M in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was $5.3M in FY2025, compounding +1.5%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $75.0M Micro · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) $14.18 · Net margin 13.6% · Return on equity 9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 27.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 58 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −40%, REDW screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $101.74 Fair Value $111.54 Bull $135.46
Price $185.00 · Downside -39.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($12.16 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $101.74 $111.54 $135.46 76
Gordon GGM $17.18 $30.56 $41.62 68
DDM Multi-Stage $17.18 $28.11 $32.69 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $17.18 $30.56 $41.62 68
DDM Multi-Stage $17.18 $28.11 $32.69 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $127.96 $170.62 $213.27 63
P/B Multiple $93.84 $125.12 $156.40 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $44.69 $59.88 $89.37 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $101.74 $111.54 $135.46 76

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 28
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 50
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 7
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 58
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 54
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 78
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 82
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 76/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+47.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−1.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.41% → 18%

REDW screens overvalued: fair value 40% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 996 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −39.7% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 9.4% · Below median
Return on assets 0.8% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 16.5% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 27.1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 11.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.36× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 13.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 1.52× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 9.09× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 19.9× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.8× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)57 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)37 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs REDW
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs REDW
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs REDW
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs REDW
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs REDW
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs REDW
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.89 −37% vs REDW
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs REDW
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs REDW
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs REDW

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Redwood Financial Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Redwood Financial Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/REDW

Frequently asked questions

Is Redwood Financial Inc (REDW) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $111.54 versus the last price from Oct 27, 2026 of $185.00, about 40% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of REDW?
Our model-based fair value for Redwood Financial Inc is $111.54 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Oct 27, 2026): $185.00.
What is the quality score of REDW?
Redwood Financial Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $111.54 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $101.74, optimistic scenario $135.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Redwood Financial Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $111.54, about 40% lower versus the last price from Oct 27, 2026 of $185.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $101.74, optimistic scenario $135.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Redwood Financial Inc it is $111.54 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $185.00. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models in 4 families (Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Redwood Financial Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, REDW trades above its calculated fair value: price $185.00, fair value $111.54, a gap of about −40% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of REDW?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($185.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($111.54). For Redwood Financial Inc the two are $73.46 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Redwood Financial Inc worth?
The market values Redwood Financial Inc at about $75.0M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $185.00; our models calculate a fair value of $111.54 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about REDW?
Our models span a range for Redwood Financial Inc: cautious scenario $101.74, base $111.54, optimistic $135.46 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $185.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of REDW?
Redwood Financial Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Nov 9, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $111.54 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.5, P/S 9.1, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
Balance-sheet figures for Redwood Financial Inc (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity 9.4%, debt of 0.36 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is REDW from its 52-week high?
Redwood Financial Inc trades at $185.00, about 37% below its 52-week high of $291.87 and at the low of $185.00 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $111.54 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Redwood Financial Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Redwood Financial Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $185.00, calculated fair value $111.54 (−40%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of REDW calculated?
We run Redwood Financial Inc through 6 models from 4 families: Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $111.54 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Redwood Financial Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
The latest price we hold is from Oct 27, 2026 and stands at $185.00. Our model-based fair value is $111.54, about 40% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Redwood Financial Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($135.46). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of Redwood Financial Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
The market capitalisation of Redwood Financial Inc is $75.0M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Redwood Financial Inc is 1.77 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
Earnings per share at Redwood Financial Inc are $14.18 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
The net margin of Redwood Financial Inc is 13.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Redwood Financial Inc is 9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Redwood Financial Inc is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
The operating margin of Redwood Financial Inc is 27.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
Revenue at Redwood Financial Inc is growing +11.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Redwood Financial Inc (REDW)?
Earnings per share at Redwood Financial Inc are growing +30.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Redwood Financial Inc (REDW) generate?
The free cash flow of Redwood Financial Inc is $3.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Redwood Financial Inc (REDW) carry?
The net debt of Redwood Financial Inc is $18.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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