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Transocean Ltd (RIGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Transocean Ltd MXN 49.26, price MXN 95.00, upside -48.2%, quality 45 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026
Transocean Ltd
RIGN · MXWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value 49.26 MXN · Strongly overvalued (−48.2%)
!Quality 45/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +4.7 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -66.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 37/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 43.20 MXN – 147.00 MXN · fair‑value band 34.53 MXN – 59.09 MXN · the 95.00 MXN price screens above the 49.26 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells in Switzerland and internationally. The company contracts mobile offshore drilling rigs, related equipment, and work crews to drill oil and gas wells.
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Transocean Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, provides offshore contract drilling services for oil and gas wells in Switzerland and internationally. The company contracts mobile offshore drilling rigs, related equipment, and work crews to drill oil and gas wells. It also operates a fleet of mobile offshore drilling units, consisting of ultra-deepwater floaters and harsh environment semisubmersibles. It serves integrated energy companies and their affiliates, government-owned or government-controlled energy companies, and other independent energy companies. Transocean Ltd. was founded in 1926 and is based in Zug, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Transocean Ltd (RIGN) currently trades at 95.00 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 49.26 MXN, 48.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of 89.06 MXN per share, and 3 of the 13 models we run sit above the 95.00 MXN price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 34.21 MXN, and 10 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 34.53 MXN (bear) to 59.09 MXN (bull), the price of 95.00 MXN sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Transocean Ltd reported revenue of $4.0B in FY2025 versus $2.6B in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was −$2.9B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 105B MXN (≈ $5.8B) · P/S ratio 24.0 · EPS (TTM) −50.63 MXN · Net margin −73.5% · Return on equity −30.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.1% · Operating margin 27.2% · Revenue (TTM) $4.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 65% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, RIGN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 34.53 MXN
Fair Value 49.26 MXN
Bull 59.09 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
100.52 MXN
158.10 MXN
270.28 MXN
78
Growth DCF
107.04 MXN
163.04 MXN
262.80 MXN
77
5Y EBITDA Exit
46.34 MXN
87.17 MXN
143.51 MXN
73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
100.52 MXN
158.10 MXN
270.28 MXN
78
5Y Revenue Exit
24.27 MXN
49.67 MXN
88.06 MXN
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
46.34 MXN
87.17 MXN
143.51 MXN
73
10Y Revenue Exit
52.00 MXN
77.50 MXN
104.11 MXN
67
10Y EBITDA Exit
66.63 MXN
101.45 MXN
138.66 MXN
68
Earnings-Based
EPV
19.28 MXN
34.21 MXN
47.10 MXN
71
Multiples
EV/EBIT
11.40 MXN
40.30 MXN
69.19 MXN
60
EV/EBITDA
25.35 MXN
58.89 MXN
92.43 MXN
63
EV/Revenue
n/a
2.72 MXN
>10.88 MXN
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
66.46 MXN
89.06 MXN
132.93 MXN
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
107.04 MXN
163.04 MXN
262.80 MXN
77
Rev-Margin DCF
24.27 MXN
53.81 MXN
93.50 MXN
69
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
19.28 MXN
34.21 MXN
47.10 MXN
70
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
45/100
Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 55
Profitability
10
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
73
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
53
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
25
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
63
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
45/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −6.0% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.8%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
6.0% (2020) → 17.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+14.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.3% a year for the price and −3.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−2.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)−0.9%
Projected 2028 (sales)−0.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)−0.2%
Projected 2030 (sales)+0.2%
RIGN screens overvalued: fair value 48% below the price. Compare with Noble Corporation →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Transocean (RIG) Scores an $80 Million Deepwater Contract in Africa
- Transocean Boosts Backlog With New Deepwater Conqueror Deal
- Is Transocean (RIG) Stock Outpacing Its Oils-Energy Peers This Year?
- Transocean (RIG) Stock Stays Near Fair Value With Cash Flow In Focus
Compare Transocean Ltd with another stock
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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| Valaris Limited VAL | $80.99 | $58.75 | −27% |
| ADES Holding 2382 | 16.40 SAR | 10.61 SAR | −35% |
| Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc PTEN | $10.91 | $22.18 | +103% |
| Helmerich & Payne, Inc HP | $36.61 | $21.74 | −41% |
| Seadrill Limited SDRL | $44.67 | $10.17 | −77% |
| Borr Drilling Limited BORR | kr 37.70 | kr 57.68 | +53% |
| Nabors Industries Ltd NBR | $78.12 | $185.85 | +138% |
| Constellation Oil Services Holding COSH | kr 136.00 | kr 150.10 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Transocean Ltd (RIGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 49.26 MXN versus a price of 95.00 MXN, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RIGN?
Our model-based fair value for Transocean Ltd is 49.26 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 95.00 MXN.
What is the quality score of RIGN?
Transocean Ltd has a Quality Score of 45/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 49.26 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 34.53 MXN, optimistic scenario 59.09 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transocean Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 49.26 MXN, about −48% upside versus a price of 95.00 MXN (overvalued). Cautious scenario 34.53 MXN, optimistic scenario 59.09 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
Transocean Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transocean Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +14.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RIGN use?
Our models discount Transocean Ltd at 12.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.31, country premium for Mexico. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transocean Ltd that is +14.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transocean Ltd (RIGN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transocean Ltd grew +4.7 % a year. The price currently implies +14.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transocean Ltd (RIGN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transocean Ltd (+14.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.85 %: that much free cash flow Transocean Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transocean Ltd it is 49.26 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 95.00 MXN. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transocean Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, RIGN trades above its calculated fair value: price 95.00 MXN, fair value 49.26 MXN, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RIGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (95.00 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (49.26 MXN). For Transocean Ltd the two are 45.74 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transocean Ltd worth?
The market values Transocean Ltd at about 105B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 95.00 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 49.26 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RIGN?
Our models span a range for Transocean Ltd: cautious scenario 34.53 MXN, base 49.26 MXN, optimistic 59.09 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 95.00 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is RIGN from its 52-week high?
Transocean Ltd trades at 95.00 MXN, about 27% below its 52-week high of 130.00 MXN and 65% above the low of 57.45 MXN (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 49.26 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transocean Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value Noble Corporation, Sinopec Oilfield Service Corporation, Valaris Limited, ADES Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transocean Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 95.00 MXN, calculated fair value 49.26 MXN (−48%), Quality Score 45/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RIGN calculated?
We run Transocean Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 49.26 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Transocean Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 95.00 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 49.26 MXN, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transocean Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (59.09 MXN). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (45/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Transocean Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The market capitalisation of Transocean Ltd is 105B MXN (≈ $5.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transocean Ltd is 24.0 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
Earnings per share at Transocean Ltd are −50.63 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The net margin of Transocean Ltd is −73.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Transocean Ltd is −30.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transocean Ltd is 1.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
The operating margin of Transocean Ltd is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transocean Ltd (RIGN)?
Revenue at Transocean Ltd is growing +19.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Transocean Ltd (RIGN) carry?
The net debt of Transocean Ltd is $5.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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