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Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Seagate Technology Holdings BRL 54.71, price BRL 80.90, upside -32.4%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 29, 2026
Seagate Technology Holdings
S1TX34 · SAGreat Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.
!Fair value R$54.71 · Overvalued (−32.4%)
✓Quality 80/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −7.9 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 21.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·0.1% dividend yield
✓Wide moat 79/100
What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$4.09 – R$4,724 · fair‑value band R$31.23 – R$77.89 · the R$80.90 price screens above the R$54.71 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally.
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Seagate Technology Holdings plc engages in the provision of data storage technology and infrastructure solutions in Singapore, the United States, the Netherlands, and internationally. The company offers mass capacity storage products, including enterprise nearline hard disk drives (HDDs), enterprise nearline solid state drives (SSDs), enterprise nearline systems, video and image HDDs, and network-attached storage drives. It also offers legacy applications comprising Mission Critical HDDs and SSDs; external storage solutions under the Seagate Ultra Touch, One Touch, Expansion, and Basics product lines, as well as under the LaCie brand name; desktop drives for personal computers and workstation applications; notebook drives traditional notebooks, convertible systems, and external storage applications, DVR HDDs for video streaming applications, and gaming SSDs for gaming rigs. In addition, the company provides Lyve edge-to-cloud mass capacity platform, that includes modular hardware and software to support enterprises' on-premise and cloud storage infrastructure needs. It sells its products primarily to original equipment manufacturers, distributors, and retailers. The company was founded in 1978 and is based in Singapore.
Stock analysis
Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34) currently trades at R$80.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$54.71, 32.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of R$94.13 per share, and 4 of the 21 models we run sit above the R$80.90 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at R$17.67, and 17 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: R$31.23 (bear) to R$77.89 (bull), the price of R$80.90 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Seagate Technology Holdings reported revenue of R$9.1B in FY2025 versus R$11.7B in FY2022, a compound −7.9%/yr. Reported net income was R$1.5B in FY2025, compounding −3.8%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$918B (≈ $176B) · P/E ratio 69.4 · P/S ratio 11.2 · EPS (TTM) R$58.44 · Dividend yield 0.1% · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 17.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 289% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −9% fair-value upside, at −32%, S1TX34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$31.23
Fair Value R$54.71
Bull R$77.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (R$58.44 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
R$18.01
R$28.54
R$48.93
75
Growth DCF
R$19.03
R$29.22
R$47.91
74
Owner Earnings
R$35.34
R$51.99
R$84.95
72
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
R$18.01
R$28.54
R$48.93
75
Owner Earnings
R$35.34
R$51.99
R$84.95
72
5Y Revenue Exit
R$26.85
R$46.21
R$75.78
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
R$42.14
R$72.38
R$113.50
70
5Y P/E Exit
R$44.86
R$77.14
R$116.56
67
10Y Revenue Exit
R$21.75
R$37.72
R$56.07
63
10Y EBITDA Exit
R$32.62
R$54.71
R$79.86
65
10Y P/E Exit
R$34.32
R$57.77
R$81.90
61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
R$27.19
R$41.80
R$49.95
64
EPV
R$27.52
R$33.98
R$39.76
71
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
R$14.95
R$17.67
R$20.39
67
DDM Multi-Stage
R$14.95
R$19.71
R$25.83
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
R$84.27
R$112.48
R$140.34
63
P/S Multiple
R$51.31
R$68.30
R$85.29
58
EV/EBIT
R$81.90
R$112.82
R$143.74
66
EV/EBITDA
R$67.62
R$94.13
R$120.29
67
EV/Revenue
R$35.68
R$56.07
R$76.12
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
R$19.03
R$29.22
R$47.91
74
Rev-Margin DCF
R$26.85
R$46.89
R$72.38
68
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder
R$27.86
R$35.34
R$42.82
69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
R$58.79
R$84.27
R$109.42
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
80/100
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59
Profitability
82
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
100
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
45
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
59
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
98
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
83
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
74
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+38.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.9%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−4.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.1%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.17% → 21%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+31.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Brazil: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 5.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.7% a year for the price and +27.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+36.5%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+36.5%
Projected 2028 (sales)+32.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+27.9%
Projected 2030 (sales)+23.6%
S1TX34 screens overvalued: fair value 32% below the price. Compare with Dell Technologies Inc →
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Context: sector, industry, market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
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Frequently asked questions
Is Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$54.71 versus a price of R$80.90, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of S1TX34?
Our model-based fair value for Seagate Technology Holdings is R$54.71 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$80.90.
What is the quality score of S1TX34?
Seagate Technology Holdings has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$54.71 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$31.23, optimistic scenario R$77.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seagate Technology Holdings stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$54.71, about −32% upside versus a price of R$80.90 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$31.23, optimistic scenario R$77.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
Seagate Technology Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$11.0B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Seagate Technology Holdings pay a dividend?
Seagate Technology Holdings currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.08% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seagate Technology Holdings would have to grow free cash flow by +26.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -7.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of S1TX34 use?
Our models discount Seagate Technology Holdings at 14.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 2.07, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Seagate Technology Holdings that is +26.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Seagate Technology Holdings grew -7.9 % a year. The price currently implies +26.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +15.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Seagate Technology Holdings (+26.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.75 %: that much free cash flow Seagate Technology Holdings produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seagate Technology Holdings it is R$54.71 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of R$80.90. It is the blended result of 21 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Seagate Technology Holdings stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, S1TX34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$80.90, fair value R$54.71, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of S1TX34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$80.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$54.71). For Seagate Technology Holdings the two are R$26.19 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seagate Technology Holdings worth?
The market values Seagate Technology Holdings at about R$918B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is R$80.90; our models calculate a fair value of R$54.71 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about S1TX34?
Our models span a range for Seagate Technology Holdings: cautious scenario R$31.23, base R$54.71, optimistic R$77.89 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price R$80.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is S1TX34 from its 52-week high?
Seagate Technology Holdings trades at R$80.90, about 23% below its 52-week high of R$105.02 and 289% above the low of R$20.81 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$54.71 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seagate Technology Holdings?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Western Digital Corporation, Wiwynn Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seagate Technology Holdings stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price R$80.90, calculated fair value R$54.71 (−32%), Quality Score 80/100, from 21 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of S1TX34 calculated?
We run Seagate Technology Holdings through 21 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$54.71, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Seagate Technology Holdings itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$80.90. Our model-based fair value is R$54.71, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seagate Technology Holdings right now?
A high-quality business (quality 80/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$77.89). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range (R$31.23 to R$77.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Seagate Technology Holdings
How large is the market capitalisation of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The market capitalisation of Seagate Technology Holdings is R$918B (≈ $176B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The price-to-earnings ratio of Seagate Technology Holdings is 69.4 (as of Jul 19, 2026). Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seagate Technology Holdings is 11.2 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology Holdings are R$58.44 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 69.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The dividend yield of Seagate Technology Holdings is 0.1% (payout 0.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The net margin of Seagate Technology Holdings is 16.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seagate Technology Holdings is 17.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seagate Technology Holdings is 13.2% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
The operating margin of Seagate Technology Holdings is 35.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
Revenue at Seagate Technology Holdings is growing +44.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34)?
Earnings per share at Seagate Technology Holdings are growing +108% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Seagate Technology Holdings (S1TX34) carry?
The net debt of Seagate Technology Holdings is R$4.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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