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Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Super Micro Computer Inc stock $38.83, price $29.60, upside +31.2%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 15 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Technology US

SM Super Micro Computer Inc logo Some data Nov 4, 2026

Super Micro Computer Inc

SMCI · US
Speculative

The stock costs 24% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $38.83 · Undervalued (24%)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (11/13)
Revenue last quarter +93% vs. a year ago.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +49.7 %/yr in USD)
Thin margins · 5.7% net margin (TTM)
Moderate moat 56/100 · thin data
Neutral coverage
Insiders sold $24.4M (6M)
Some data
Quality 38/100
Negative free cash flow
⚠ Dilution

Risks from the AI analysis

🚩Heavy reliance on one large customer🚩NVIDIA component dependence plus export scrutiny🚩Market share loss to Dell and HPE
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$118.81 $3.48 Fair Value $38.83 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.48 – $118.81 · fair‑value band $27.33 – $73.50 · the $29.60 price screens below the $38.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 4, 2026.

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Company profile

Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.

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The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems.

It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories.

In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation.

Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services.

The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers.

Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Stock analysis

Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) currently trades at $29.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.83, implying the stock looks roughly 24% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $166.75 per share, and 13 of the 15 models we run sit above the $29.60 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $18.95, and 2 of the 15 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $27.33 (bear) to $73.50 (bull), the price of $29.60 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Super Micro Computer Inc reported revenue of $39.1B in FY2026 versus $5.2B in FY2022, a compound +65.6%/yr. Reported net income was $2.2B in FY2026, compounding +67.2%/yr from FY2022. FY2022 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $20.6B Large · P/E ratio 6.2 · P/S ratio 0.53 · EPS (TTM) $4.74 · Net margin 5.7% · Return on equity 21.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 12.4% · Operating margin 13.4%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 56 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at 31%, SMCI screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $27.33 Fair Value $38.83 Bull $73.50
Price $29.60 · Upside +31.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.66 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV $27.55 $30.97 $33.78 74
Owner Earnings $23.15 $45.68 $86.47 72
ROIC Compounder $32.15 $42.79 $50.32 72
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $23.15 $45.68 $86.47 72
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $23.45 $163.51 $229.47 63
Lynch FV $79.79 $113.99 $148.19 61
PEG = 1.0 $79.79 $113.99 $148.19 57
EPV $27.55 $30.97 $33.78 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $72.41 $96.55 $120.68 63
P/S Multiple $43.96 $58.62 $73.27 58
P/B Multiple $100.62 $134.17 $167.71 55
EV/EBIT $75.24 $100.94 $126.63 66
EV/EBITDA $58.39 $78.47 $98.55 67
EV/Revenue $37.12 $53.82 $70.53 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $12.51 $18.95 $23.69 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $20.91 $25.59 $36.66 70
ROIC Compounder $32.15 $42.79 $50.32 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $116.72 $166.75 $216.77 67

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 54
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 0
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 85
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 0
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 31
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 15
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $24.4M and none bought.

  • SaleLiang Chiu-Chu Sara LiuDirector, 10% owner2× since Sep 3, 2026: 300,000 shares, avg. $40.74$12.2MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleCharles LiangPresident and CEO, Director, 10% owner2× since Sep 3, 2026: 300,000 shares, avg. $40.74$12.2MOct 7, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleSherman TuanDirector48,630 shares at $33.00$1.6MNov 26, 2025
  • SaleGeorge KaoSVP, OPERATIONS56,904 shares at $32.83$1.9MNov 24, 2025

Plus 33 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 4, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+77.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+76.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+49.7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +33.2% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+45.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+45.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.42.5% vs 36.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.7% → 7%
2026 sits 92% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)

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Recent news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Note from the team Nov 5, 2026
AI conclusion: Explosive AI server revenue growth is the main strength, while thin margins and single-customer concentration limit durable advantages and cash conversion.
Main risk: A single customer accounted for 28 percent of fiscal 2026 revenue and up to 63 percent in one quarter, so any order reduction or switch by that buyer could sharply cut sales and margins.
Bull case: By expanding enterprise and channel sales while deepening liquid-cooling and rack-scale offerings, the company could diversify away from hyperscale concentration and capture more of the growing AI infrastructure buildout.
Bear case: If the top customer cuts orders, NVIDIA restricts allocations amid compliance concerns, and Dell plus HPE continue gaining share, revenue and margins could contract sharply as the business loses its position in the AI server market.
Super Micro posted explosive revenue growth from AI servers and lifted its 2027 sales outlook. One customer now accounts for 44 percent of sales while the quarter used hundreds of millions in operating cash despite the surge. Does the model scale profitably across more clients and convert sales into cash, or does concentration keep margins and liquidity under pressure?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Computer Hardware · 214 stocks

Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +31.2% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 21.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets 7.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 5.7% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 13.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 93.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.46× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 6.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.43× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months) 0.53× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.91× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)75 · sector 3
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 79
PAST (return on equity)86 · sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)77 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 46

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Sandisk Corporation SNDK $1,037 $2,256 +118% vs SMCI
HP Inc HPQ $29.93 $52.85 +77% vs SMCI
Lenovo Group 0992 HK$19.41 HK$33.72 +74% vs SMCI
Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 ¥35.63 ¥46.76 +31% vs SMCI
Arista Networks, Inc ANET $178.48 $160.94 −10% vs SMCI
Quanta Computer Inc 2382 300.00 TWD 213.20 TWD −29% vs SMCI
Western Digital Corporation WDC $323.83 $175.91 −46% vs SMCI
Dell Technologies Inc DELL $372.36 $195.72 −47% vs SMCI
Everpure, Inc P $111.77 $57.04 −49% vs SMCI
Seagate Technology Holdings STX $557.06 $208.25 −63% vs SMCI

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Super Micro Computer Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Super Micro Computer Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMCI

Frequently asked questions

Is Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.83 versus a price of $29.60, about +31% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMCI?
Our model-based fair value for Super Micro Computer Inc is $38.83 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.60.
What is the quality score of SMCI?
Super Micro Computer Inc has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.83 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $27.33, optimistic scenario $73.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Super Micro Computer Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.83, about +31% upside versus a price of $29.60 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $27.33, optimistic scenario $73.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Super Micro Computer Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $39.1B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Super Micro Computer Inc it is $38.83 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $29.60. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Super Micro Computer Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, SMCI trades below its calculated fair value: price $29.60, fair value $38.83, a gap of about +31% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMCI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.83). For Super Micro Computer Inc the two are $9.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Super Micro Computer Inc worth?
The market values Super Micro Computer Inc at about $20.6B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $29.60; our models calculate a fair value of $38.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMCI?
Our models span a range for Super Micro Computer Inc: cautious scenario $27.33, base $38.83, optimistic $73.50 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $29.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMCI?
Super Micro Computer Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 6.2 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $38.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.5, EV/EBITDA 7.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SMCI?
The PEG ratio of Super Micro Computer Inc is 0.91 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Super Micro Computer Inc (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 21.5%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMCI from its 52-week high?
Super Micro Computer Inc trades at $29.60, about 41% below its 52-week high of $50.17 and 44% above the low of $20.53 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Super Micro Computer Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Dell Technologies Inc, Arista Networks, Inc, Sandisk Corporation, Seagate Technology Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Super Micro Computer Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $29.60, calculated fair value $38.83 (+31%), Quality Score 38/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMCI calculated?
We run Super Micro Computer Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0% above its aggregate fair value. Super Micro Computer Inc currently trades 24% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $29.60. Our model-based fair value is $38.83, about +31% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Super Micro Computer Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($27.33 to $73.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) come from?
Earnings per share at Super Micro Computer Inc grew +35.3 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +27.5 %, EBIT margin +3.7 %, tax rate +2.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Super Micro Computer Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
The market capitalisation of Super Micro Computer Inc is $20.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Super Micro Computer Inc is 0.53 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Earnings per share at Super Micro Computer Inc are $4.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 6.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
The net margin of Super Micro Computer Inc is 5.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Super Micro Computer Inc is 21.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Super Micro Computer Inc is 12.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
The operating margin of Super Micro Computer Inc is 13.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Revenue at Super Micro Computer Inc is growing +93.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +76.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI)?
Earnings per share at Super Micro Computer Inc are growing +435% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) generate?
The free cash flow of Super Micro Computer Inc is −$7.0B (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Super Micro Computer Inc (SMCI) carry?
The net debt of Super Micro Computer Inc is $1.2B (fiscal year 2026). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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