Super Micro Computer, Inc (SMCI) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $15.6B
Super Micro Computer, Inc
SMCI · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from $31.43 to $27.56 (−12.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +11.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($20.67 to $39.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.30 – $118.81 · fair‑value band $20.67 – $39.56 · the $29.38 price screens above the $27.56 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Super Micro Computer, Inc (SMCI) currently trades at $29.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.56, implying the stock looks roughly 6.2% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Super Micro Computer, Inc generated revenue of $33.7B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue grew 122.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $391M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $20.67 (bear case) to $39.56 (bull case); at $29.38, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -67% fair-value upside, at -6%, SMCI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($60.27) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7600). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally.
Full company description
Super Micro Computer, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops and sells server and storage solutions based on modular and open-standard architecture in the United States, Asia, Europe, and internationally. The company provides liquid and air-cooled AI servers for training and inferencing with integrated graphics processing units (GPUs) or PCIe based architectures; SuperBlade, MicroBlade, FlexTwin, GrandTwin, and BigTwin blade and multi-node systems; SuperStorage systems; Hyper, CloudDC, and WIO and rackmount systems; embedded (5G/IoT/Edge) systems; and MicroCloud server systems. It also offers workstations and networking devices; and modular server subsystems and accessories, including server boards, chassis, power supplies, and other accessories. In addition, the company provides remote system management solutions, such as Server Management suite comprising Supermicro Server Manager, Supermicro Power Management software, Supermicro Update Manager, SuperCloud Composer, and SuperDoctor 5. Further, the company identifies service requirements; creates and executes project plans; conducts verification testing; offers training; and provides technical documentation. Additionally, it offers rack level services from design to deployment for full rack and cluster level deployments of AI and HPC datacenters; help desk services and on-site product support; and warranties, maintenance, and technical support services. The company serves enterprise data centers, cloud computing, artificial intelligence, 5G, and edge computing markets through direct and indirect sales force, distributors, value-added resellers, system integrators, and original equipment manufacturers. Super Micro Computer, Inc. was incorporated in 1993 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Super Micro Computer, Inc reported revenue of $22.0B in FY2025 versus $5.2B in FY2021, a compound +43.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.0B in FY2025, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2021.
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can HPE's NVDA Alliance Help it Challenge SMCI and DELL?
- Supermicro's Seventh Annual Open Storage Summit Brings Together 21 Ecosystem Partners to Share Practical Guidance on Deploying Enterprise AI
- Super Micro Computer (SMCI) Suffers a Larger Drop Than the General Market: Key Insights
Peer Group
Computer Hardware · 217 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Computer Hardware median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Computer Hardware stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compal Electronics, Inc CEIR | $0.0310 | $0.0276 | -11% |
| Dell Technologies Inc DELL | $434.97 | $163.87 | -62% |
| Arista Networks, Inc ANET | $168.56 | $43.74 | -74% |
| Western Digital Corporation WDC | $513.84 | $74.05 | -86% |
| Wiwynn Corporation 6669 | 4,685 TWD | 1,559 TWD | -67% |
| Hangzhou Hikvision Digital Technology Co 002415 | ¥34.12 | ¥30.11 | -12% |
| Quanta Computer Inc 2382 | 373.50 TWD | 297.22 TWD | -20% |
| Shenzhen Longsys Electronics Co 301308 | ¥587.60 | ¥60.86 | -90% |
| Lenovo Group 0992 | HK$23.16 | HK$3.07 | -87% |
| Dawning Information Industry Co 603019 | ¥106.13 | ¥28.88 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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