South32 Ltd (S32) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 19, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of South32 Ltd stock £1.80, price £2.34, upside -23.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.15 – £2.74 · fair‑value band £1.37 – £2.40 · the £2.34 price screens above the £1.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The company operates through Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina, Brazil Aluminium, Hillside Aluminium, Mozal Aluminium, Sierra Gorda, Cannington, Hermosa, Australia Manganese, and South Africa Manganese segments.
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It has a portfolio of assets producing bauxite, alumina, aluminum, copper, silver, lead, zinc, and manganese products.
The company has operations in Australia, Bahrain, China, Japan, Italy, Mozambique, South Africa, the Netherlands, Brazil, South Korea, the United States, rest of Middle East, rest of Asia, rest of Europe, rest of North America, and rest of Oceania.
South32 Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Stock analysis
South32 Ltd (S32) currently trades at £2.34, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £1.80, 23.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of £2.36 per share, and 4 of the 24 models we run sit above the £2.34 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £0.4900, and 20 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.37 (bear) to £2.40 (bull), the price of £2.34 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
South32 Ltd reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2026 versus $9.3B in FY2022, a compound −11.0%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2026, compounding −20.1%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £10.6B Large · P/E ratio 12.9 · P/S ratio 2.42 · EPS (TTM) £0.1810 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 18.7% · Return on equity 11.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 55 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −23%, S32 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£1.37Fair Value £1.80Bull£2.40
Price £2.34 · Upside -23.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 4 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0404 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+0.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.5% a year
Revenue growth 14 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−15.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−15.8% vs 0.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.4% → 14%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+12.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.0% a year for the price and −10.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (88 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Commodity exposure limits any durable competitive advantage while asset sales allow focused growth in copper and zinc yet heighten cyclical sensitivity.
Main risk: Narrower focus after the aluminium divestment could amplify earnings swings if project delivery slips or prices soften, hitting margins and returns.
South32 is progressing the sale of its aluminium assets to Alcoa, which would narrow its operations to base metals and free capital for copper and zinc expansions at Sierra Gorda and Hermosa. Recent results show solid earnings growth from those commodities, yet the narrower focus could amplify swings if project delivery slips or prices soften. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the pivot unlock lasting efficiency gains, or expose returns more directly to base metals volatility?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−23.1% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)11.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)18.3% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)18.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.1% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.07× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "South32 Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/S32
Frequently asked questions
Is South32 Ltd (S32) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £1.80 versus a price of £2.34, about −23% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of S32?
Our model-based fair value for South32 Ltd is £1.80 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.34.
What is the quality score of S32?
South32 Ltd has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for South32 Ltd (S32)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £1.80 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.37, optimistic scenario £2.40. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the South32 Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £1.80, about −23% upside versus a price of £2.34 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.37, optimistic scenario £2.40. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of South32 Ltd (S32)?
South32 Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $5.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does South32 Ltd pay a dividend?
South32 Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 2.06% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into South32 Ltd (S32)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, South32 Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +12.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of S32 use?
Our models discount South32 Ltd at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.70, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For South32 Ltd that is +12.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has South32 Ltd (S32) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at South32 Ltd grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +12.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of South32 Ltd (S32) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into South32 Ltd (+12.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.56 %: that much free cash flow South32 Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of South32 Ltd (S32)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For South32 Ltd it is £1.80 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of £2.34. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is South32 Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, S32 trades above its calculated fair value: price £2.34, fair value £1.80, a gap of about −23% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of S32?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£2.34); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£1.80). For South32 Ltd the two are £0.5400 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is South32 Ltd worth?
The market values South32 Ltd at about £10.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is £2.34; our models calculate a fair value of £1.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about S32?
Our models span a range for South32 Ltd: cautious scenario £1.37, base £1.80, optimistic £2.40 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price £2.34). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of S32?
South32 Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9 (as of Oct 14, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £1.80 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 13.6 (reported 12.9). Other multiples: PEG 7.3, P/B 1.5, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 10.3.
What is the PEG ratio of S32?
The PEG ratio of South32 Ltd is 7.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of South32 Ltd (S32)?
Balance-sheet figures for South32 Ltd (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity 11.4%, debt of 0.07 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is S32 from its 52-week high?
South32 Ltd trades at £2.34, about 15% below its 52-week high of £2.74 and 62% above the low of £1.45 (as of Oct 19, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £1.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to South32 Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, Korea Zinc Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is South32 Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price £2.34, calculated fair value £1.80 (−23%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of S32 calculated?
We run South32 Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £1.80, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.9 % above its aggregate fair value. South32 Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The closing price on Oct 19, 2026 was £2.34. Our model-based fair value is £1.80, about −23% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with South32 Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of South32 Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The market capitalisation of South32 Ltd is £10.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The price-to-sales ratio of South32 Ltd is 2.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of South32 Ltd (S32)?
Earnings per share at South32 Ltd are £0.1810 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The dividend yield of South32 Ltd is 2.1% (payout 27.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 26.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The net margin of South32 Ltd is 18.7% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The return on equity (ROE) of South32 Ltd is 11.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of South32 Ltd (S32)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of South32 Ltd is 5.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of South32 Ltd (S32)?
The operating margin of South32 Ltd is 18.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at South32 Ltd (S32)?
Revenue at South32 Ltd is growing +1.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at South32 Ltd (S32)?
Earnings per share at South32 Ltd are growing +29.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does South32 Ltd (S32) hold?
South32 Ltd holds more cash than debt, $293M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 14, 2026