XCF Global, Inc (SAFX) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · US · Market cap $173M
XCF Global, Inc
SAFX · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 9 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price −16.1% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 59% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.1955). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range $0.1371 – $36.22 · fair‑value band $0.1190 – $0.1955 · the $0.3903 price screens above the $0.1615 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
XCF Global, Inc (SAFX) currently trades at $0.3903, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.1615, implying the stock looks roughly 58.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $21.2M. It earns a return on equity of 187.2%. Net debt stands at $122M. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 2.2. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $0.1190 (bear case) to $0.1955 (bull case); at $0.3903, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -30% fair-value upside, at -59%, SAFX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 9 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($2.50) versus Asset-Based ($0.0700). Highest evidence: Growth-Adj P/E (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
XCF Global, Inc. manufactures and sells renewable fuels in the United States. It develops and operates clean fuel production facilities to produce clean-burning and sustainable biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels, and renewable diesel and naphtha products; and sells environmental credits. XCF Global, Inc.
Full company description
XCF Global, Inc. manufactures and sells renewable fuels in the United States. It develops and operates clean fuel production facilities to produce clean-burning and sustainable biofuels, sustainable aviation fuels, and renewable diesel and naphtha products; and sells environmental credits. XCF Global, Inc. was founded in 2016 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
XCF Global, Inc reported revenue of $20.8M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2023. Reported net income was $74.0M in FY2025, compounding +56.2%/yr from FY2021.
SAFX screens 59% overvalued. Compare with China Yangtze Power Co →
Peer Group
Utilities - Renewable · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Renewable median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Renewable stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Yangtze Power Co 600900 | ¥27.99 | ¥25.13 | -10% |
| Ørsted A/S ORSTED | kr 149.70 | kr 31.40 | -79% |
| Huaneng Lancang River Hydropower Inc 600025 | ¥9.81 | ¥5.57 | -43% |
| Adani Green Energy Limited ADANIGREEN | ₹1,537 | ₹170.50 | -89% |
| AXIA Energia SA AXIAP | $10.74 | $9.65 | -10% |
| VERBUND AG OEWA | €58.65 | €66.19 | +13% |
| BEP BEP | $32.33 | $73.35 | +127% |
| BEPUN BEPUN | C$44.56 | C$10.15 | -77% |
| Fortum Oyj FORTUM | €19.89 | €13.90 | -30% |
| China Longyuan Power Group 001289 | ¥16.21 | ¥8.23 | -49% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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