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Scilex Holding Company (SCLX) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Scilex Holding Company $11.06, price $4.94, upside +123.9%, quality 19 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Healthcare · US · ISIN US80880W1062

SH Scilex Holding Company logo Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Scilex Holding Company

SCLX · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value $11.06 · Strongly undervalued (+124%)
!Quality 19/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +5.1 %/yr)
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 12/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$322.54 $2.48 Fair Value $11.06 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.48 – $322.54 · fair‑value band $8.17 – $14.59 · the $4.94 price screens below the $11.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Scilex Holding Company focuses on acquiring, developing, and commercializing non-opioid pain management products for the treatment of acute and chronic pain.

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Scilex Holding Company focuses on acquiring, developing, and commercializing non-opioid pain management products for the treatment of acute and chronic pain. Its commercial products include ZTlido (lidocaine topical system) 1.8% (ZTlido), a prescription lidocaine topical product for the relief of neuropathic pain associated with postherpetic neuralgia (PHN), which is a form of post-shingles nerve pain; ELYXYB, a ready-to-use oral solution for the acute treatment of migraine with or without aura in adults; and GLOPERBA, a liquid oral version of the anti-gout medicine colchicine indicated for the prophylaxis of painful gout flares in adults. The company also develops three product candidates, including SP-102 (10 mg, dexamethasone sodium phosphate viscous gel - SEMDEXA), a novel viscous gel formulation of a used corticosteroid for epidural injections, which has completed a phase 3 study to treat lumbosacral radicular pain or sciatica; SP-103 (lidocaine topical system) 5.4%, a formulation of ZTlido for the treatment of chronic neck pain and low back pain (LBP) that has completed a phase 2 trial; and SP-104 (4.5 mg low-dose naltrexone hydrochloride delayed-release capsules), a novel low-dose delayed-release naltrexone hydrochloride, which has completed phase 1 trials for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It has an agreement with Oishi and Itochu to develop lidocaine tape products, including ZTlido and SP-103; Lifecore Biomedical, LLC for clinical trial material manufacturing and development services for SEMDEXA; and Tulex Master, which develops, tests, and manufactures clinical supplies of SP-104. Scilex Holding Company is based in Palo Alto, California.

Stock analysis

Scilex Holding Company (SCLX) currently trades at $4.94, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.06, implying the stock looks roughly 55.3% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $14.76 per share, and 5 of the 6 models we run sit above the $4.94 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $4.32, and 1 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: $8.17 (bear) to $14.59 (bull), the price of $4.94 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 19/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Scilex Holding Company reported revenue of $30.3M in FY2025 versus $31.3M in FY2021, a compound −0.9%/yr. Reported net income was −$359M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $54.5M · P/S ratio 1.43 · EPS (TTM) $−40.50 · Return on assets (EBIT) −74.6% · Operating margin −373% · Revenue (TTM) $33.9M · Revenue growth (YoY) +72.1% · Free cash flow $3.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 22 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 1% fair-value upside, at 124%, SCLX screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $8.17 Fair Value $11.06 Bull $14.59
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $17.18 $27.73 $43.30 77
Growth DCF $17.43 $26.67 $39.42 75
5Y Revenue Exit $7.50 $10.93 $14.99 71
All 6 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $17.18 $27.73 $43.30 77
5Y Revenue Exit $7.50 $10.93 $14.99 71
10Y Revenue Exit $10.80 $14.76 $19.60 65
Multiples
EV/Revenue $2.27 $4.32 $6.36 52
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $17.43 $26.67 $39.42 75
Rev-Margin DCF $7.50 $11.22 $15.65 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 19/100

Of which business quality 22 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 2
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 0
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 69
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 2
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 3
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 24
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 4
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−46.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−7.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−149.7% (2020) → −900.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+28.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +25.2% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - General · 74 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/6 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 19 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +124% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets −93% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 72% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.

Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper

P/B Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 1.61× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 14.8× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 20
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 48
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 42

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Eli Lilly and Company LLY $1,182 $792.04 −33%
Johnson & Johnson, JNJ $270.68 $168.85 −38%
AbbVie Inc ABBV $265.12 $259.62 −2%
Roche Holding ROP CHF 364.10 CHF 383.60 +5%
Merck & Co MRK $150.91 $129.12 −14%
Novartis AG NOVN CHF 118.96 CHF 120.68 +1%
Amgen Inc AMGN $406.04 $446.64 +10%
Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD $149.69 $198.77 +33%
Pfizer Inc PFE $27.93 $24.87 −11%
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company BMY $61.50 $75.96 +24%

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Scilex Holding Company · Fair Value
$11.06 +55%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Scilex Holding Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SCLX

Frequently asked questions

Is Scilex Holding Company (SCLX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $11.06 versus a price of $4.94, about +124% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SCLX?
Our model-based fair value for Scilex Holding Company is $11.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.94.
What is the quality score of SCLX?
Scilex Holding Company has a Quality Score of 19/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $11.06 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.17, optimistic scenario $14.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scilex Holding Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $11.06, about +124% upside versus a price of $4.94 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.17, optimistic scenario $14.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
Scilex Holding Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $33.9M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scilex Holding Company would have to grow free cash flow by +28.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SCLX use?
Our models discount Scilex Holding Company at 11.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 1.71, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Scilex Holding Company that is +28.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Scilex Holding Company (SCLX) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Scilex Holding Company grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies +28.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Scilex Holding Company (+28.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.76 %: that much free cash flow Scilex Holding Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scilex Holding Company it is $11.06 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $4.94. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Scilex Holding Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SCLX trades below its calculated fair value: price $4.94, fair value $11.06, a gap of about +124% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SCLX?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.94); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($11.06). For Scilex Holding Company the two are $6.12 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scilex Holding Company worth?
The market values Scilex Holding Company at about $54.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $4.94; our models calculate a fair value of $11.06 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SCLX?
Our models span a range for Scilex Holding Company: cautious scenario $8.17, base $11.06, optimistic $14.59 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $4.94). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scilex Holding Company (as of Sep 23, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 19/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SCLX from its 52-week high?
Scilex Holding Company trades at $4.94, about 73% below its 52-week high of $18.19 and 34% above the low of $3.69 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $11.06 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scilex Holding Company?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Eli Lilly and Company, Johnson & Johnson,, AbbVie Inc, Roche Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scilex Holding Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $4.94, calculated fair value $11.06 (+124%), Quality Score 19/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SCLX calculated?
We run Scilex Holding Company through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $11.06, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Scilex Holding Company currently trades 124 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was $4.94. Our model-based fair value is $11.06, about +124% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Scilex Holding Company right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (19/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($8.17). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Scilex Holding Company

How large is the market capitalisation of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
The market capitalisation of Scilex Holding Company is $54.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Scilex Holding Company is 1.43 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
Earnings per share at Scilex Holding Company are $−40.50. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Scilex Holding Company is −74.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
The operating margin of Scilex Holding Company is −373% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Scilex Holding Company (SCLX)?
Revenue at Scilex Holding Company is growing +72.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −7.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Scilex Holding Company (SCLX) carry?
The net debt of Scilex Holding Company is $128M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 34.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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