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Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Schrodinger Inc $6.62, price $29.23, upside -77.4%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Thin data
Sep 23, 2026
Schrodinger Inc
SDGR · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $6.62 · Strongly overvalued (−77%)
!Quality 58/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +18.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -40.6% net margin (TTM)
✓generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (1/10)
!Narrow moat 10/100
!Insider activity 44/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.07 – $78.80 · fair‑value band $5.37 – $8.55 · the $29.23 price screens above the $6.62 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Company profile
Schrödinger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops physics-based computational platform that enables discovery of novel molecules for drug development and materials applications in the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Drug Discovery.
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Schrödinger, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops physics-based computational platform that enables discovery of novel molecules for drug development and materials applications in the United States, the Asia-Pacific, Europe, Middle East, Africa, and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Software and Drug Discovery. The Software segment sells its software to transform molecular discovery for life sciences and materials science industries. The Drug Discovery segment focuses on building a portfolio of preclinical and clinical programs, internally and through collaborations. It has a research collaboration and license agreement with Novartis Pharma AG to advance multiple development candidates. Schrödinger, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in New York, New York.
Stock analysis
Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) currently trades at $29.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.62, implying the stock looks roughly 341.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $7.32 per share, and 0 of the 7 models we run sit above the $29.23 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.72, and 7 of the 7 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $5.37 (bear) to $8.55 (bull), the price of $29.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Schrodinger Inc reported revenue of $256M in FY2025 versus $138M in FY2021, a compound +16.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$103M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/S ratio 4.46 · EPS (TTM) $−1.40 · Net margin −40.4% · Return on equity −30.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) −21.3% · Operating margin −83.3% · Revenue (TTM) $255M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 164% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −77%, SDGR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.37
Fair Value $6.62
Bull $8.55
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$5.96
$7.29
$10.85
79
Growth DCF
$5.83
$7.54
$10.48
76
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.52
$7.08
$10.10
71
All 7 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$5.96
$7.29
$10.85
79
5Y Revenue Exit
$5.52
$7.08
$10.10
71
10Y Revenue Exit
$5.58
$7.47
$9.56
65
Multiples
EV/Revenue
$5.25
$5.99
$6.73
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.78
$3.72
$5.55
51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$5.83
$7.54
$10.48
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$5.52
$7.32
$10.03
71
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
58/100
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Profitability
11
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
79
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
51
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
68
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
97
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
6
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
90
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
71
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
62/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 8 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.0%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−56.4% (2020) → −65.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+59.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +55.5% a year for the price and +4.2% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−8.3%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+12.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+11.4%
Projected 2029 (sales)+10.1%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.7%
SDGR screens 342% overvalued. Compare with Veeva Systems Inc →
Compare Schrodinger Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Health Information Services · 133 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/9 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Health Information Services median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Health Care sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Health Information Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Veeva Systems Inc VEEV | $260.91 | $287.00 | +10% |
| Pro Medicus Limited PME | A$161.31 | A$64.50 | −60% |
| BrightSpring Health Services, Inc BTSG | $56.55 | $26.07 | −54% |
| HealthEquity, Inc HQY | $91.75 | $100.93 | +10% |
| Hinge Health, Inc HNGE | $94.15 | $51.66 | −45% |
| 10x Genomics, Inc TXG | $80.70 | $21.71 | −73% |
| Waystar Holding WAY | $25.63 | $28.19 | +10% |
| Doximity, Inc DOCS | $26.51 | $31.41 | +18% |
| Privia Health Group PRVA | $19.46 | $5.26 | −73% |
| Inventurus Knowledge Solutions Limited IKS | ₹1,869 | ₹2,056 | +10% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.62 versus a price of $29.23, about −77% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SDGR?
Our model-based fair value for Schrodinger Inc is $6.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $29.23.
What is the quality score of SDGR?
Schrodinger Inc has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.62 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.37, optimistic scenario $8.55. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Schrodinger Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.62, about −77% upside versus a price of $29.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.37, optimistic scenario $8.55. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
Schrodinger Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $255M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Schrodinger Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +59.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SDGR use?
Our models discount Schrodinger Inc at 13.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.64, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Schrodinger Inc that is +59.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Schrodinger Inc grew +18.8 % a year. The price currently implies +59.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Schrodinger Inc (+59.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.58 %: that much free cash flow Schrodinger Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Schrodinger Inc it is $6.62 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $29.23. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Schrodinger Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SDGR trades above its calculated fair value: price $29.23, fair value $6.62, a gap of about −77% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SDGR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($29.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.62). For Schrodinger Inc the two are $22.61 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Schrodinger Inc worth?
The market values Schrodinger Inc at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $29.23; our models calculate a fair value of $6.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SDGR?
Our models span a range for Schrodinger Inc: cautious scenario $5.37, base $6.62, optimistic $8.55 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $29.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
Balance-sheet figures for Schrodinger Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −30.1%. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SDGR from its 52-week high?
Schrodinger Inc trades at $29.23, about 5% below its 52-week high of $30.70 and 164% above the low of $11.07 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Schrodinger Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Veeva Systems Inc, Pro Medicus Limited, BrightSpring Health Services, Inc, HealthEquity, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Schrodinger Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $29.23, calculated fair value $6.62 (−77%), Quality Score 58/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SDGR calculated?
We run Schrodinger Inc through 7 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Schrodinger Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $29.23. Our model-based fair value is $6.62, about −77% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Schrodinger Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($8.55). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Schrodinger Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The market capitalisation of Schrodinger Inc is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Schrodinger Inc is 4.46 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
Earnings per share at Schrodinger Inc are $−1.40. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The net margin of Schrodinger Inc is −40.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Schrodinger Inc is −30.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Schrodinger Inc is −21.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
The operating margin of Schrodinger Inc is −83.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Schrodinger Inc (SDGR)?
Revenue at Schrodinger Inc is growing −1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +12.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net cash does Schrodinger Inc (SDGR) hold?
Schrodinger Inc holds more cash than debt, $121M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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