Select Medical Holdings (SEM) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $2.0B · ISIN US81619Q1058
What is Select Medical Holdings really worth?
Select Medical Holdings
SEM · US
A solid business, trading 18% below our fair value of $20.06.
As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of Select Medical Holdings is $20.06 per share against a price of $16.51, so the fair value sits 22% above the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price +0.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (54/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range ($13.62 to $27.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $10.83 – $21.28 · fair‑value band $13.62 – $27.69 · the $16.51 price screens below the $20.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Select Medical Holdings (SEM) currently trades at $16.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.06, implying the stock looks roughly 17.7% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $25.24 per share, and 17 of the 25 models we run sit above the $16.51 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $3.35, and 8 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Select Medical Holdings generated revenue of $5.5B at a net margin of 2.4%. Revenue grew 5.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.8%. Net debt stands at $3.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $13.62 (bear case) to $27.69 (bull case); at $16.51, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at 22%, SEM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.5594 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($25.24) versus Dividend Discount ($3.35). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, and outpatient rehabilitation clinics in the United States.
Full company description
Select Medical Holdings Corporation, through its subsidiaries, operates critical illness recovery hospitals, rehabilitation hospitals, and outpatient rehabilitation clinics in the United States. The Critical Illness Recovery Hospital segment consists of hospitals that provide services for heart failure, infectious disease, respiratory failure and pulmonary disease, surgery requiring prolonged recovery, renal disease, neurological events, and trauma. The Rehabilitation Hospital segment offers therapy and rehabilitation treatments, including rehabilitative services for brain and spinal cord injuries, strokes, amputations, neurological disorders, orthopedic conditions, pediatric congenital or acquired disabilities, and cancer. The Outpatient Rehabilitation segment operates rehabilitation clinics that provide physical, occupational, and speech rehabilitation programs and services; and specialized programs, such as functional programs for work related injuries, hand therapy, pelvic health rehabilitation, post-concussion rehabilitation, pediatric and cancer rehabilitation, and athletic training services. Select Medical Holdings Corporation was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Mechanicsburg, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Select Medical Holdings reported revenue of $5.5B in FY2025 versus $6.2B in FY2021, a compound −3.2%/yr. Reported net income was $146M in FY2025, compounding −22.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +5.1 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch SEM: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Peer Group
Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 45/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA | $417.82 | $547.67 | +31% |
| Fresenius SE FRE | €45.25 | €32.15 | −29% |
| Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013 | 241.00 SAR | 112.37 SAR | −53% |
| IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F | 2.67 SGD | 1.44 SGD | −46% |
| Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC | $266.80 | $330.25 | +24% |
| DaVita Inc DVA | $180.68 | $186.49 | +3% |
| Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP | ₹8,818 | ₹2,955 | −66% |
| Fresenius Medical Care AG FME | €39.92 | €71.28 | +79% |
| Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015 | ¥8.25 | ¥7.67 | −7% |
| Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH | ₹1,005 | ₹284.87 | −72% |
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