Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Simmons First National Corporation $38.66, price $22.89, upside +68.9%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.53 – $26.89 · fair‑value band $30.50 – $48.33 · the $22.89 price screens below the $38.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Simmons First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses.
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Simmons First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. The company offers deposits, checking, and savings accounts; loan products, such as consumer, real estate, commercial, agricultural, equipment, warehouse lending, and SBA lending; specialized products and services, including credit cards, trust and fiduciary services, investments, and insurance; and treasury management services. It also provides ATM services; internet and mobile banking platforms; overdraft facilities; safe deposit boxes; and brokerage services. The company has operations in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
Stock analysis
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) currently trades at $22.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $38.66, implying the stock looks roughly 40.8% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $75.96 per share, and 4 of the 6 models we run sit above the $22.89 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $6.99, and 2 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $30.50 (bear) to $48.33 (bull), the price of $22.89 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Simmons First National Corporation reported revenue of $627M in FY2025 versus $848M in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$398M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $3.1B · P/S ratio 40.8 · EPS (TTM) $−2.75 · Dividend yield 3.7% · Net margin −63.4% · Return on equity −10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3% · Operating margin 39.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −38% fair-value upside, at 69%, SFNC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $30.50Fair Value $38.66Bull $48.33
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.23/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−56.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−15.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 34 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
32.6% (2020) → −84.2% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +11.0% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (93 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Simmons First National Corporation with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1074 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+69% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−63% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)39% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)3.7% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Simmons First National Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SFNC
Frequently asked questions
Is Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $38.66 versus a price of $22.89, about +69% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SFNC?
Our model-based fair value for Simmons First National Corporation is $38.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.89.
What is the quality score of SFNC?
Simmons First National Corporation has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $38.66 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $30.50, optimistic scenario $48.33. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Simmons First National Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $38.66, about +69% upside versus a price of $22.89 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $30.50, optimistic scenario $48.33. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
Does Simmons First National Corporation pay a dividend?
Simmons First National Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.73% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Simmons First National Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -8.6 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFNC use?
Our models discount Simmons First National Corporation at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.92, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Simmons First National Corporation that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Simmons First National Corporation grew -8.6 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Simmons First National Corporation (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.72 %: that much free cash flow Simmons First National Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Simmons First National Corporation it is $38.66 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.89. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Simmons First National Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SFNC trades below its calculated fair value: price $22.89, fair value $38.66, a gap of about +69% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFNC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($38.66). For Simmons First National Corporation the two are $15.77 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Simmons First National Corporation worth?
The market values Simmons First National Corporation at about $3.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.89; our models calculate a fair value of $38.66 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFNC?
Our models span a range for Simmons First National Corporation: cautious scenario $30.50, base $38.66, optimistic $48.33 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SFNC?
The PEG ratio of Simmons First National Corporation is 3.83 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Simmons First National Corporation (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −10.4%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFNC from its 52-week high?
Simmons First National Corporation trades at $22.89, about 5% below its 52-week high of $24.12 and 37% above the low of $16.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $38.66 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Simmons First National Corporation?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Simmons First National Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.89, calculated fair value $38.66 (+69%), Quality Score 44/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFNC calculated?
We run Simmons First National Corporation through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $38.66, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Simmons First National Corporation currently trades 69 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $22.89. Our model-based fair value is $38.66, about +69% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Simmons First National Corporation right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (44/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($30.50). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) come from?
Earnings per share at Simmons First National Corporation grew −0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.0 %, EBIT margin −8.6 %, tax rate +3.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Simmons First National Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The market capitalisation of Simmons First National Corporation is $3.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Simmons First National Corporation is 40.8 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
Earnings per share at Simmons First National Corporation are $−2.75. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The dividend yield of Simmons First National Corporation is 3.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The net margin of Simmons First National Corporation is −63.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Simmons First National Corporation is −10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Simmons First National Corporation is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
The operating margin of Simmons First National Corporation is 39.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
Revenue at Simmons First National Corporation is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −15.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC)?
Earnings per share at Simmons First National Corporation are growing +82.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) carry?
The net debt of Simmons First National Corporation is $261M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026