Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $3.3B
Simmons First National Corporation
SFNC · US
Fair value as of: Jul 14, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 27 days ago
Share price +5.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 71% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.25 to $9.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.53 – $26.89 · fair‑value band $4.25 – $9.44 · the $23.46 price screens above the $6.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 14, 2026.
Analysis
Simmons First National Corporation (SFNC) currently trades at $23.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.84, implying the stock looks roughly 70.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $81.4M. Revenue grew 24.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -10.4%. Net debt stands at $261M. Fundamentals as of Jul 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.25 (bear case) to $9.44 (bull case); at $23.46, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 42% fair-value upside, at -71%, SFNC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($47.31) versus Multiples ($6.99). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 39 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Simmons First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses.
Full company description
Simmons First National Corporation operates as the bank holding company for Simmons Bank that provides banking and other financial products and services to individuals and businesses. The company offers deposits, checking, and savings accounts; loan products, such as consumer, real estate, commercial, agricultural, equipment, warehouse lending, and SBA lending; specialized products and services, including credit cards, trust and fiduciary services, investments, and insurance; and treasury management services. It also provides ATM services; internet and mobile banking platforms; overdraft facilities; safe deposit boxes; and brokerage services. The company has operations in Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Texas. Simmons First National Corporation was founded in 1903 and is headquartered in Pine Bluff, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Simmons First National Corporation reported revenue of $627M in FY2025 versus $848M in FY2021, a compound −7.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$398M in FY2025.
SFNC screens 71% overvalued. Compare with PT Bank Central Asia Tbk →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Simmons First National Corp (SFNC) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Deposit Growth and ...
- How Investors May Respond To Simmons First National (SFNC) Earnings Miss, Rising NII, And Share Buybacks
- Simmons First National Corporation Reveals Rise In Q2 Income
- Simmons First National (SFNC) Reports Q2 Earnings: What Key Metrics Have to Say
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1083 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,175 IDR | 6,087 IDR | -1% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 184,400 KRW | 213,797 KRW | +16% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 2,970 IDR | 4,891 IDR | +65% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,310 IDR | 7,841 IDR | +82% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 10,240 ARS | +100% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 107,900 KRW | 137,259 KRW | +27% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 136,800 KRW | 193,969 KRW | +42% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Banco de Chile, CHILE | 193.10 CLP | 152.55 CLP | -21% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,400 VND | 84,201 VND | +42% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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