Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Siegfried Holding Ltd stock CHF 47.57, price CHF 72.00, that is 33.9% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 24 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range CHF 55.98 – CHF 117.09 · fair‑value band CHF 25.72 – CHF 80.43 · the CHF 72.00 price screens above the CHF 47.57 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Siegfried Holding AG, together with its subsidiaries, engages in contract development and manufacturing of active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) and finished dosage forms worldwide.
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It offers drug substances, including exclusive synthesis that manufactures custom APIs. The company also offers an API portfolio, including non-exclusive APIs and pharma-grade substances that focus on anesthetics, pain and addiction treatment applications, and central nervous and respiratory diseases, as well as caffeine for human health and nutrition.
In addition, it offers drug products, including steriles, which includes fill and finish in vials, ampoules, cartridges, and pre-filled syringes; ophthalmics, such as sterile ointments, gels, and suspensions and solutions; inhalation products, including capsules in medical devices for inhalation applications; oral solid dosage forms, which includes tablets and capsules; and viral vectors, such as AAV and lentiviruses for gene therapy.
Further, the company provides technologies with chemistry capabilities, analytical services, formulation technologies, bridging technologies, containment technology, and cell and gene therapies. The company was founded in 1873 and is headquartered in Zofingen, Switzerland.
Stock analysis
Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) currently trades at CHF 72.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is CHF 47.57, 34% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of CHF 77.77 per share, and 6 of the 24 models we run sit above the CHF 72.00 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at CHF 6.60, and 18 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: CHF 25.72 (bear) to CHF 80.43 (bull), the price of CHF 72.00 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Siegfried Holding Ltd reported revenue of CHF 1.3B in FY2025 versus CHF 1.1B in FY2021, a compound +4.8%/yr. Reported net income was CHF 169M in FY2025, compounding +15.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap CHF 3.2B Mid · P/E ratio 18.4 · P/S ratio 2.36 · EPS (TTM) CHF 3.91 · Dividend yield 0.6% · Net margin 12.8% · Return on equity 17.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.0% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 59 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at −34%, SFZN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearCHF 25.72Fair Value CHF 47.57BullCHF 80.43
Price CHF 72.00 · Downside -33.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (CHF 3.00 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.5%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +22.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 22.1% / 14.5%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9% → 16%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 1.42 per share, median 8.37 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+66.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (Switzerland: IMF forecast 0.6% a year to 2030, 0.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +65.6% a year for the price and +7.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (16 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Siegfried's CDMO model draws strength from US site expansions with advancing integration and strong customer interest that support margin gains, yet the added scale demands ongoing investments that limit free cash flow.
Main risk: Integration costs for the acquired US drug substance sites may build faster than synergies are realised and thereby hit cash generation in the CDMO business.
Siegfried has expanded its US footprint with the acquired drug substance sites, where integration is advancing and customer interest remains strong. This bolsters its CDMO model focused on operational excellence and margin gains, yet the added scale requires ongoing investments that could weigh on cash generation. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the new capacity unlock synergies quicker than integration costs build up?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 549 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−33.9% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)17.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.8% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)12.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)14.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.2% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.6% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.33× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of CHF 47.57 versus a price of CHF 72.00, about 34% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SFZN?
Our model-based fair value for Siegfried Holding Ltd is CHF 47.57 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: CHF 72.00.
What is the quality score of SFZN?
Siegfried Holding Ltd has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of CHF 47.57 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario CHF 25.72, optimistic scenario CHF 80.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Siegfried Holding Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at CHF 47.57, about 34% lower versus a price of CHF 72.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario CHF 25.72, optimistic scenario CHF 80.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Siegfried Holding Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about CHF 1.3B (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Siegfried Holding Ltd pay a dividend?
Siegfried Holding Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 0.56% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Siegfried Holding Ltd pays a dividend of CHF 0.4 per share a year, a dividend yield of 0.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since 2012. The payout ratio is 10.2% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.57 times. Our assessment: Token dividend. At a yield of 0.6% the dividend is symbolic. On paper it is not fully covered by earnings or free cash flow, but at this size that hardly matters: even scrapping it entirely would cost less than 0.6% a year, and coverage ratios on amounts this small swing with ordinary working-capital movements. Judge this company on its business, not on its dividend.
What growth is priced into Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Siegfried Holding Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +66.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.5 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SFZN use?
Our models discount Siegfried Holding Ltd at 9.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.79, country premium for Switzerland. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Siegfried Holding Ltd that is +66.6 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Siegfried Holding Ltd grew +9.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +66.6 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +6.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Siegfried Holding Ltd (+66.6 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.32 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Siegfried Holding Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Siegfried Holding Ltd it is CHF 47.57 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of CHF 72.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Siegfried Holding Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SFZN trades above its calculated fair value: price CHF 72.00, fair value CHF 47.57, a gap of about −34% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SFZN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (CHF 72.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (CHF 47.57). For Siegfried Holding Ltd the two are CHF 24.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Siegfried Holding Ltd worth?
The market values Siegfried Holding Ltd at about CHF 3.2B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is CHF 72.00; our models calculate a fair value of CHF 47.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SFZN?
Our models span a range for Siegfried Holding Ltd: cautious scenario CHF 25.72, base CHF 47.57, optimistic CHF 80.43 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price CHF 72.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SFZN?
Siegfried Holding Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.4 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of CHF 47.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 2.8, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 10.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SFZN?
The PEG ratio of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 1.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Siegfried Holding Ltd (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 17.0%, debt of 0.33 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SFZN from its 52-week high?
Siegfried Holding Ltd trades at CHF 72.00, about 28% below its 52-week high of CHF 99.49 and 8% above the low of CHF 66.90 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of CHF 47.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Siegfried Holding Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Galderma Group, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Siegfried Holding Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price CHF 72.00, calculated fair value CHF 47.57 (−34%), Quality Score 46/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SFZN calculated?
We run Siegfried Holding Ltd through 24 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of CHF 47.57 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Siegfried Holding Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was CHF 72.00. Our model-based fair value is CHF 47.57, about 34% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Siegfried Holding Ltd right now?
Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (CHF 25.72 to CHF 80.43). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) come from?
Earnings per share at Siegfried Holding Ltd grew +16.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.9 %, EBIT margin +8.6 %, tax rate −2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Siegfried Holding Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The market capitalisation of Siegfried Holding Ltd is CHF 3.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 2.36 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Earnings per share at Siegfried Holding Ltd are CHF 3.91 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The dividend yield of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 0.6% (payout 10.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The net margin of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 12.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 17.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 10.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
The operating margin of Siegfried Holding Ltd is 14.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Revenue at Siegfried Holding Ltd is growing +2.2% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN)?
Earnings per share at Siegfried Holding Ltd are growing +4.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Siegfried Holding Ltd (SFZN) carry?
The net debt of Siegfried Holding Ltd is CHF 472M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 47.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026