Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK $18.47, price $17.82, upside +3.7%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $5.51 – $20.66 · fair‑value band $12.36 – $23.09 · the $17.82 price screens below the $18.47 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
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Standard Bank Group Limited provides financial products and services in South Africa and internationally.
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Standard Bank Group Limited provides financial products and services in South Africa and internationally. It offers a range of onshore and offshore savings and investment; home and personal loans; forex solutions; transactional banking, including digital wallets, cards, payment and transfer platforms; private and digital banking; forex solutions; vehicle and asset finance; credit cards; and insurance solutions. The company also provides transactional banking; business lending; commercial asset finance; merchant, trade, fleet, and business solar solutions; specific solutions for clients in various sectors, such as agriculture, manufacturing, healthcare, and tourism; app and internet banking; international payments and forex; alternative funding options; and business resources and insurance. In addition, it offers advisory, transactional, trading, risk management, and funding solutions; and long and short-term insurance, health insurance, and asset management. Further, the company engages in trust or other fiduciary activities. The company was founded in 1862 and is headquartered in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) currently trades at $17.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $18.47, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 3.5%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $17.11 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $17.82 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $6.68, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $12.36 (bear) to $23.09 (bull), the price of $17.82 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK reported revenue of 302B ZAR in FY2025 versus 123B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +25.3%/yr. Reported net income was 47.4B ZAR in FY2025, compounding +16.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $32.5B · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 1.52 · EPS (TTM) $1.84 · Dividend yield 4.9% · Net margin 15.7% · Return on equity 18.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 32% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at 4%, SGBLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $12.36Fair Value $18.47Bull $23.09
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.100/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+59.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.1% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.5%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+17.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+12.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.12.3% vs 7.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−2.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in ZAR, South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.5% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (57 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Compare Standard Bank Group Ltd PK with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)18.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)28.4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)43.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)4.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.11× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Standard Bank Group Ltd PK Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGBLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $18.47 versus a price of $17.82, about +4% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SGBLY?
Our model-based fair value for Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is $18.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $17.82.
What is the quality score of SGBLY?
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $18.47 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $12.36, optimistic scenario $23.09. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Standard Bank Group Ltd PK stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $18.47, about +4% upside versus a price of $17.82 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $12.36, optimistic scenario $23.09. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 180B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does Standard Bank Group Ltd PK pay a dividend?
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Standard Bank Group Ltd PK would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.2 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGBLY use?
Our models discount Standard Bank Group Ltd PK at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Standard Bank Group Ltd PK that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK grew +22.2 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.97 %: that much free cash flow Standard Bank Group Ltd PK produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Standard Bank Group Ltd PK it is $18.47 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $17.82. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Standard Bank Group Ltd PK stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SGBLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $17.82, fair value $18.47, a gap of about +4% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGBLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($17.82); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($18.47). For Standard Bank Group Ltd PK the two are $0.6500 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Standard Bank Group Ltd PK worth?
The market values Standard Bank Group Ltd PK at about $32.5B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $17.82; our models calculate a fair value of $18.47 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGBLY?
Our models span a range for Standard Bank Group Ltd PK: cautious scenario $12.36, base $18.47, optimistic $23.09 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $17.82). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGBLY?
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $18.47 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.0, P/S 3.0, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 18.7%, debt of 0.11 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGBLY from its 52-week high?
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK trades at $17.82, about 14% below its 52-week high of $20.66 and 32% above the low of $13.49 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $18.47 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Standard Bank Group Ltd PK?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Standard Bank Group Ltd PK stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $17.82, calculated fair value $18.47 (+4%), Quality Score 58/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGBLY calculated?
We run Standard Bank Group Ltd PK through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $18.47, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Standard Bank Group Ltd PK currently trades 4 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $17.82. Our model-based fair value is $18.47, about +4% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Standard Bank Group Ltd PK right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range ($12.36 to $23.09) leaves room in how you read the outcome. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK grew +8.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.3 %, EBIT margin +6.7 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK
How large is the market capitalisation of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The market capitalisation of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is $32.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is 1.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Earnings per share at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK are $1.84 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The dividend yield of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is 4.9% (payout 47.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The net margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is 15.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is 18.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is 3.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
The operating margin of Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is 43.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Revenue at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK is growing +9.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +31.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY)?
Earnings per share at Standard Bank Group Ltd PK are growing +15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Standard Bank Group Ltd PK (SGBLY) hold?
Standard Bank Group Ltd PK holds more cash than debt, 9.1B ZAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026