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SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SGL Carbon SE $4.31, price $4.87, upside -11.5%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · US · ISIN DE0007235301

SC SGL Carbon SE logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

SGL Carbon SE

SGLFF · US

Weak valuationQuality is weak on top of the rich price.

!Fair value $4.31 · Overvalued (−11.5%)
!Quality 47/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −1.6 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -8.4% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Narrow moat 21/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$19.00 $2.46 Fair Value $4.31 Jul 2015 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.46 – $19.00 · fair‑value band $2.62 – $6.13 · the $4.87 price screens above the $4.31 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

SGL Carbon SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells special graphite, carbon fiber, and composite products in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, China, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Graphite Solutions, Process Technology, Carbon Fibers, and Composite Solutions.

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SGL Carbon SE, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells special graphite, carbon fiber, and composite products in Germany, rest of Europe, the United States, China, rest of Asia, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: Graphite Solutions, Process Technology, Carbon Fibers, and Composite Solutions. It offers products for automotive industries, including body and main part powertrains, motor blocks, and brake systems; carbon-ceramic brake discs; friction materials; gas diffusion layers and bipolar plates; carbon-ceramic brake discs; body shell components; friction materials; chassis components; gas diffusion layers and bipolar plates; and sealing materials. The company provides composite solutions, such as energy storage systems, lead springs, skins and structures, thermoplastic profiles, and friction components; fuel cells for energy conversion, as well as for passenger cars and trains, and ferries for zero emission mobile applications; and carbon fiber-reinforced plastics and composites for aerospace industry. In addition, it offers isostatic graphite to produce compound semiconductor layers; silicon carbide coatings for semiconductor production; and heat exchangers, columns, quenchers, pumps, components and assemblies, and pipings, as well as sealing materials for process technology. The company was founded in 1878 and is headquartered in Wiesbaden, Germany.

Stock analysis

SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF) currently trades at $4.87, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.31, 11.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $7.73 per share, and 6 of the 13 models we run sit above the $4.87 price.

Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.73, and 7 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.62 (bear) to $6.13 (bull), the price of $4.87 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

SGL Carbon SE reported revenue of €850M in FY2025 versus €1.0B in FY2021, a compound −4.2%/yr. Reported net income was −€79.2M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $668M · P/S ratio 0.83 · EPS (TTM) $−0.6300 · Net margin −9.3% · Return on equity −12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 6.3% · Revenue (TTM) €800M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at −12%, SGLFF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.62 Fair Value $4.31 Bull $6.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $1.40 $2.18 $3.49 79
Growth DCF $1.49 $2.22 $3.37 78
EPV $1.38 $1.73 $2.02 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $1.40 $2.18 $3.49 79
5Y Revenue Exit $2.94 $5.19 $8.46 71
5Y EBITDA Exit $4.00 $7.03 $11.03 73
10Y Revenue Exit $2.11 $3.61 $5.24 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.83 $4.64 $6.61 68
Earnings-Based
EPV $1.38 $1.73 $2.02 74
Multiples
EV/EBIT $5.51 $7.73 $9.95 66
EV/EBITDA $7.24 $10.04 $12.84 67
EV/Revenue $4.62 $7.10 $9.57 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $2.10 $2.82 $4.21 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $1.49 $2.22 $3.37 78
Rev-Margin DCF $2.94 $5.26 $8.05 71
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $1.38 $1.73 $2.02 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 47/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 21
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 20
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 40
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 25
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 90
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 19/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.3% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−10.2% (2020) → 8.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.4% a year for the price and −0.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−11.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+5.3%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.4%

SGLFF screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group →

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Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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SGL Carbon SE · Fair Value
$4.31 −12%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SGL Carbon SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SGLFF

Frequently asked questions

Is SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.31 versus a price of $4.87, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SGLFF?
Our model-based fair value for SGL Carbon SE is $4.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $4.87.
What is the quality score of SGLFF?
SGL Carbon SE has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.31 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.62, optimistic scenario $6.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SGL Carbon SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.31, about −12% upside versus a price of $4.87 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.62, optimistic scenario $6.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
SGL Carbon SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €800M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SGL Carbon SE would have to grow free cash flow by +23.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGLFF use?
Our models discount SGL Carbon SE at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.27, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SGL Carbon SE that is +23.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SGL Carbon SE grew -1.6 % a year. The price currently implies +23.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SGL Carbon SE (+23.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.85 %: that much free cash flow SGL Carbon SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SGL Carbon SE it is $4.31 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $4.87. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SGL Carbon SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SGLFF trades above its calculated fair value: price $4.87, fair value $4.31, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGLFF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($4.87); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.31). For SGL Carbon SE the two are $0.5600 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SGL Carbon SE worth?
The market values SGL Carbon SE at about $668M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $4.87; our models calculate a fair value of $4.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGLFF?
Our models span a range for SGL Carbon SE: cautious scenario $2.62, base $4.31, optimistic $6.13 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $4.87). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is SGLFF from its 52-week high?
SGL Carbon SE trades at $4.87, about 16% below its 52-week high of $5.81 and 62% above the low of $3.00 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SGL Carbon SE?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Ningxia Baofeng Energy Group, Dow Inc, Hengli Petrochemical Co, Zangge Mining Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SGL Carbon SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $4.87, calculated fair value $4.31 (−12%), Quality Score 47/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGLFF calculated?
We run SGL Carbon SE through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SGL Carbon SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $4.87. Our model-based fair value is $4.31, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SGL Carbon SE right now?
A fairly wide model range ($2.62 to $6.13) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Key figures of SGL Carbon SE

How large is the market capitalisation of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The market capitalisation of SGL Carbon SE is $668M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SGL Carbon SE is 0.83 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
Earnings per share at SGL Carbon SE are $−0.6300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The net margin of SGL Carbon SE is −9.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SGL Carbon SE is −12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SGL Carbon SE is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
The operating margin of SGL Carbon SE is 6.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
Revenue at SGL Carbon SE is growing −21.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF)?
Earnings per share at SGL Carbon SE are growing −75.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SGL Carbon SE (SGLFF) carry?
The net debt of SGL Carbon SE is €154M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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