Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Surgery Partners Inc $21.97, price $14.56, upside +50.9%, quality 37 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.49 – $67.05 · fair‑value band $4.96 – $44.50 · the $14.56 price screens below the $21.97 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Surgery Partners, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a network of surgical facilities and ancillary services in the United States.
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Surgery Partners, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates a network of surgical facilities and ancillary services in the United States. The company provides ambulatory surgery centers and surgical hospitals that offer non-emergency surgical procedures in various specialties, including orthopedics and pain management, ophthalmology, gastroenterology, and general surgery. It offers emergency departments; ancillary services such as physician practices and diagnostic testing; multi-specialty physician practices; urgent care facilities; and anesthesia services. In addition, it offers single- and multi-specialty facilities. Surgery Partners, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Brentwood, Tennessee.
Stock analysis
Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY) currently trades at $14.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $21.97, implying the stock looks roughly 33.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $29.84 per share, and 10 of the 12 models we run sit above the $14.56 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.77, and 2 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $4.96 (bear) to $44.50 (bull), the price of $14.56 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Surgery Partners Inc reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2025 versus $2.2B in FY2021, a compound +10.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$77.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.9B · P/S ratio 0.56 · EPS (TTM) $−0.5900 · Net margin −2.4% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.8% · Operating margin 10.4% · Revenue (TTM) $3.3B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 37 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at 51%, SGRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.96Fair Value $21.97Bull $44.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.58/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+6.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +13.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.8% (2020) → 11.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.1% a year for the price and +1.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Care Facilities · 258 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+51% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3% · Below median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity2.10× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper
P/B1.08× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $21.97 versus a price of $14.56, about +51% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGRY?
Our model-based fair value for Surgery Partners Inc is $21.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $14.56.
What is the quality score of SGRY?
Surgery Partners Inc has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $21.97 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 14 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.96, optimistic scenario $44.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Surgery Partners Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $21.97, about +51% upside versus a price of $14.56 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.96, optimistic scenario $44.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
Surgery Partners Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Surgery Partners Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +12.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGRY use?
Our models discount Surgery Partners Inc at 13.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.95, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Surgery Partners Inc that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Surgery Partners Inc grew +12.2 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Surgery Partners Inc (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.56 %: that much free cash flow Surgery Partners Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Surgery Partners Inc it is $21.97 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $14.56. It is the blended result of 14 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Surgery Partners Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SGRY trades below its calculated fair value: price $14.56, fair value $21.97, a gap of about +51% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($14.56); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($21.97). For Surgery Partners Inc the two are $7.41 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Surgery Partners Inc worth?
The market values Surgery Partners Inc at about $1.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $14.56; our models calculate a fair value of $21.97 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGRY?
Our models span a range for Surgery Partners Inc: cautious scenario $4.96, base $21.97, optimistic $44.50 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $14.56). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SGRY?
The PEG ratio of Surgery Partners Inc is 1.66 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Surgery Partners Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 2.8%, debt of 2.10 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGRY from its 52-week high?
Surgery Partners Inc trades at $14.56, about 37% below its 52-week high of $22.94 and 27% above the low of $11.49 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $21.97 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Surgery Partners Inc?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value HCA Healthcare, Inc, Fresenius SE, Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group, Tenet Healthcare Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Surgery Partners Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $14.56, calculated fair value $21.97 (+51%), Quality Score 37/100, from 14 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGRY calculated?
We run Surgery Partners Inc through 14 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $21.97, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Surgery Partners Inc currently trades 51 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $14.56. Our model-based fair value is $21.97, about +51% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Surgery Partners Inc right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The model range is unusually wide ($4.96 to $44.50). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Surgery Partners Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The market capitalisation of Surgery Partners Inc is $1.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Surgery Partners Inc is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
Earnings per share at Surgery Partners Inc are $−0.5900. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The net margin of Surgery Partners Inc is −2.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Surgery Partners Inc is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Surgery Partners Inc is 4.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
The operating margin of Surgery Partners Inc is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY)?
Revenue at Surgery Partners Inc is growing +4.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Surgery Partners Inc (SGRY) carry?
The net debt of Surgery Partners Inc is $3.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 19.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026