Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $1.8B
Shoals Technologies Group
SHLS · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 17 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Share price −8.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 53% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.81 – $37.49 · fair‑value band $3.11 – $5.25 · the $8.93 price screens above the $4.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) currently trades at $8.93, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.20, implying the stock looks roughly 53.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Shoals Technologies Group generated revenue of $536M at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 74.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.8%. Net debt stands at $168M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.11 (bear case) to $5.25 (bull case); at $8.93, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 32% below its 52-week high and 124% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -7% fair-value upside, at -53%, SHLS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 17 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($5.71) versus Dividend Discount ($0.1000). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United States and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells various products used by the solar and battery storage industries, including solar big lead assembly (BLA) solutions; homeruns, interconnection, and extension solutions; combiners and re-combiners; load break disconnects and transition solutions; wireless performance monitoring; and battery energy storage solutions (BESS). It also offers original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components; and technical support services during installation and the transition to operations and maintenance. The company sells its products to engineering, procurement, and construction firms that build solar energy projects; utilities; solar developers, independent power producers; solar module manufacturers; and charge point operators. Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Portland, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Shoals Technologies Group reported revenue of $475M in FY2025 versus $213M in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was $33.6M in FY2025, compounding +94.5%/yr from FY2021.
SHLS screens 53% overvalued. Compare with First Solar, Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. Q2 2026 Earnings Call Summary
- Shoals Technologies Group Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Shoals Technologies Group (SHLS) Q2 Earnings and Revenues Surpass Estimates
- Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. Reports Financial Results for Second Quarter 2026
Peer Group
Solar · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Solar median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| First Solar, Inc FSLR | $221.03 | $284.45 | +29% |
| Nextpower Inc NXT | $111.50 | $69.61 | -38% |
| Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER | ₹2,923 | ₹3,613 | +24% |
| Tongwei Co 600438 | ¥13.08 | ¥12.13 | -7% |
| Jinko Solar Co 688223 | ¥4.39 | ¥4.75 | +8% |
| Hengdian Group 002056 | ¥21.64 | ¥22.76 | +5% |
| CSI Solar Co 688472 | ¥10.11 | ¥7.01 | -31% |
| Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH | $44.83 | $22.20 | -50% |
| Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE | ₹1,086 | ₹912.32 | -16% |
| Trina Solar Co 688599 | ¥12.98 | ¥7.97 | -39% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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