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Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shoals Technologies Group Inc $4.20, price $7.71, upside -45.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · US · ISIN US82489W1071

ST Shoals Technologies Group Inc logo Some data Sep 24, 2026

Shoals Technologies Group Inc

SHLS · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $4.20 · Strongly overvalued (−46%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +22.0 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 6.3% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (7/13)
!Narrow moat 38/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 23 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$37.49 $2.81 Fair Value $4.20 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.81 – $37.49 · fair‑value band $3.11 – $5.25 · the $7.71 price screens above the $4.20 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United States and internationally.

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Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. provides electrical balance of system (EBOS) solutions and components in the United States and internationally. The company designs, manufactures, and sells various products used by the solar and battery storage industries, including solar big lead assembly (BLA) solutions; homeruns, interconnection, and extension solutions; combiners and re-combiners; load break disconnects and transition solutions; wireless performance monitoring; and battery energy storage solutions (BESS). It also offers original equipment manufacturer (OEM) components; and technical support services during installation and the transition to operations and maintenance. The company sells its products to engineering, procurement, and construction firms that build solar energy projects; utilities; solar developers, independent power producers; solar module manufacturers; and charge point operators. Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Portland, Tennessee.

Stock analysis

Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS) currently trades at $7.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.20, implying the stock looks roughly 83.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $5.71 per share, and 1 of the 15 models we run sit above the $7.71 price.

Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $1.47, and 14 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $3.11 (bear) to $5.25 (bull), the price of $7.71 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Shoals Technologies Group Inc reported revenue of $475M in FY2025 versus $213M in FY2021, a compound +22.2%/yr. Reported net income was $33.6M in FY2025, compounding +94.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Key figures

Market cap $1.8B · P/E ratio 38.6 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Net margin 7.1% · Return on equity 5.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.3% · Operating margin 8.1%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.

The share trades about 40% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −46%, SHLS screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $3.11 Fair Value $4.20 Bull $5.25
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1463 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV $1.20 $1.47 $1.70 74
ROIC Compounder $1.20 $1.47 $1.70 72
Residual Income $2.62 $2.62 $2.40 71
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $0.9200 $2.74 $6.11 69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $1.36 $9.49 $13.32 63
Lynch FV $2.97 $4.25 $5.52 61
PEG = 1.0 $2.97 $4.25 $5.52 57
EPV $1.20 $1.47 $1.70 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $3.15 $4.20 $5.25 63
P/S Multiple $2.55 $3.40 $4.25 58
P/B Multiple $2.55 $3.40 $4.25 55
EV/EBIT $3.51 $4.94 $6.37 65
EV/EBITDA $3.34 $4.72 $6.09 67
EV/Revenue $2.29 $3.60 $4.91 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.79 $2.40 $3.58 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $2.62 $2.62 $2.40 71
ROIC Compounder $1.20 $1.47 $1.70 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $4.00 $5.71 $7.42 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 44 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 22

Profitability 34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 8
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 64
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 58/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.3%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+5.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.21% → 12%

SHLS screens 84% overvalued. Compare with First Solar, Inc →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.

Compare Shoals Technologies Group Inc with another stock

Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Solar · 113 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Above median
Fair Value upside −46% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Above median
Return on assets 5% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 75% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.23× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Solar median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.06× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 3.43× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 20.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.95× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 21
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)23 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 81
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Solar stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
First Solar, Inc FSLR $200.78 $392.12 +95%
Nextpower Inc NXT $82.52 $90.77 +10%
Tongwei Co 600438 ¥11.58 ¥12.13 +5%
Waaree Energies Limited WAAREEENER ₹2,512 ₹2,709 +8%
Jinko Solar Co 688223 ¥3.85 ¥6.47 +68%
Enphase Energy, Inc ENPH $34.42 $24.15 −30%
CSI Solar Co 688472 ¥8.53 ¥4.82 −43%
Hengdian Group 002056 ¥20.33 ¥31.86 +57%
Premier Energies Limited PREMIERENE ₹915.00 ₹648.94 −29%
Trina Solar Co 688599 ¥11.20 ¥31.67 +183%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shoals Technologies Group Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHLS

Frequently asked questions

Is Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.20 versus a price of $7.71, about −46% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SHLS?
Our model-based fair value for Shoals Technologies Group Inc is $4.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.71.
What is the quality score of SHLS?
Shoals Technologies Group Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.20 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.11, optimistic scenario $5.25. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shoals Technologies Group Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.20, about −46% upside versus a price of $7.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.11, optimistic scenario $5.25. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Shoals Technologies Group Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $536M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shoals Technologies Group Inc it is $4.20 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $7.71. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shoals Technologies Group Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SHLS trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.71, fair value $4.20, a gap of about −46% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHLS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.20). For Shoals Technologies Group Inc the two are $3.51 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shoals Technologies Group Inc worth?
The market values Shoals Technologies Group Inc at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $7.71; our models calculate a fair value of $4.20 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHLS?
Our models span a range for Shoals Technologies Group Inc: cautious scenario $3.11, base $4.20, optimistic $5.25 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $7.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHLS?
Shoals Technologies Group Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.20 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 3.1, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SHLS?
The PEG ratio of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is 0.95 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shoals Technologies Group Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.8%, debt of 0.23 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHLS from its 52-week high?
Shoals Technologies Group Inc trades at $7.71, about 40% below its 52-week high of $12.77 and 35% above the low of $5.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.20 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shoals Technologies Group Inc?
From the same area (Technology) we also value First Solar, Inc, Nextpower Inc, Tongwei Co, Waaree Energies Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shoals Technologies Group Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $7.71, calculated fair value $4.20 (−46%), Quality Score 44/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHLS calculated?
We run Shoals Technologies Group Inc through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.20, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shoals Technologies Group Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.71. Our model-based fair value is $4.20, about −46% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shoals Technologies Group Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.25). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.

Key figures of Shoals Technologies Group Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
The market capitalisation of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is 2.72 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Earnings per share at Shoals Technologies Group Inc are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
The net margin of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is 7.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is 5.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is 8.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
The operating margin of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Revenue at Shoals Technologies Group Inc is growing +74.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS)?
Earnings per share at Shoals Technologies Group Inc are growing +21.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS) generate?
The free cash flow of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is −$16.0M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Shoals Technologies Group Inc (SHLS) carry?
The net debt of Shoals Technologies Group Inc is $168M (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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