Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sigma Healthcare Ltd stock A$1.31, price A$2.74, upside -52.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$0.3929 – A$3.23 · fair‑value band A$0.8100 – A$1.70 · the A$2.74 price screens above the A$1.31 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.
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Sigma Healthcare Limited operates as a retail pharmacy franchisor and pharmaceutical wholesale and distributor to community pharmacies primarily in Australia.
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It offers support services to a network of franchised retail pharmacies; third and fourth party logistics services to pharmaceutical manufacturers and other supplier partners; and health services. The company operates stores under the Chemist Warehouse, Amcal, and Discount Drug stores brand names.
It also offers products through online. The company was founded in 1912 and is headquartered in Clayton, Australia.
Stock analysis
Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) currently trades at A$2.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$1.31, 52.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of A$1.59 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the A$2.74 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$0.5700, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$0.8100 (bear) to A$1.70 (bull), the price of A$2.74 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sigma Healthcare Ltd reported revenue of A$10.8B in FY2026 versus A$3.4B in FY2022, a compound +33.2%/yr. Reported net income was A$709M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap A$31.5B (≈ $22.2B) Large · P/E ratio 45.7 · P/S ratio 2.91 · EPS (TTM) A$0.0600 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 6.6% · Return on equity 14.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −1.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 37% fair-value upside, at −52%, SIG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$0.8100Fair Value A$1.31BullA$1.70
Price A$2.74 · Upside -52.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (A$0.0147 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+121.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+43.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.1% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +72.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+71.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.71.1% vs 29.0%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−3% → 9%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Approximate: the rate leans on 2026, which sits 20,431% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +21.4% a year for the price and +6.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (51 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
AI conclusion: Scale from Chemist Warehouse store growth and UK expansion stands against sustained net losses, negative cash flows and high leverage with weak positioning.
Main risk: Consumer spending caution could cut demand across its pharmacy stores and medical distribution volumes, worsening already negative cash flows.
Chemist Warehouse branded stores delivered double-digit sales growth in Australia and even stronger results internationally in the first months of the financial year. The company is on track with further store openings and has begun its UK expansion through a joint venture. Our models see the business as overvalued. Will the benefits of greater scale and international reach more than offset any headwinds from consumer spending caution?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Medical Distribution · 80 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−52.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)14.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.6% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)6.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)8.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)31.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.15× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Medical Distribution median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)45.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.31× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)2.91× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow60.8× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.0× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)59· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)92· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)29· sector 56
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$1.31 versus a price of A$2.74, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SIG?
Our model-based fair value for Sigma Healthcare Ltd is A$1.31 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$2.74.
What is the quality score of SIG?
Sigma Healthcare Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$1.31 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.8100, optimistic scenario A$1.70. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sigma Healthcare Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$1.31, about −52% upside versus a price of A$2.74 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.8100, optimistic scenario A$1.70. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Sigma Healthcare Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$10.8B (latest available figure, as of Oct 26, 2026).
Does Sigma Healthcare Ltd pay a dividend?
Sigma Healthcare Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 1.46% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 26, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sigma Healthcare Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +25.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.1 % per year. As of Oct 26, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SIG use?
Our models discount Sigma Healthcare Ltd at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.32, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sigma Healthcare Ltd that is +25.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sigma Healthcare Ltd grew +26.1 % a year. The price currently implies +25.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +5.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sigma Healthcare Ltd (+25.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.65 %: that much free cash flow Sigma Healthcare Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sigma Healthcare Ltd it is A$1.31 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of A$2.74. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sigma Healthcare Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, SIG trades above its calculated fair value: price A$2.74, fair value A$1.31, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$2.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$1.31). For Sigma Healthcare Ltd the two are A$1.43 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sigma Healthcare Ltd worth?
The market values Sigma Healthcare Ltd at about A$31.5B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is A$2.74; our models calculate a fair value of A$1.31 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIG?
Our models span a range for Sigma Healthcare Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.8100, base A$1.31, optimistic A$1.70 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price A$2.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SIG?
Sigma Healthcare Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 45.7 (as of Oct 26, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$1.31 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.3, P/S 2.9, EV/EBITDA 31.0.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sigma Healthcare Ltd (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity 14.7%, debt of 0.15 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SIG from its 52-week high?
Sigma Healthcare Ltd trades at A$2.74, about 13% below its 52-week high of A$3.14 and 10% above the low of A$2.50 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$1.31 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sigma Healthcare Ltd?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value McKesson Corporation, Cencora, Inc, Cardinal Health, Inc, Henry Schein, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sigma Healthcare Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price A$2.74, calculated fair value A$1.31 (−52%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIG calculated?
We run Sigma Healthcare Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$1.31, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Sigma Healthcare Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was A$2.74. Our model-based fair value is A$1.31, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sigma Healthcare Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$1.70). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (A$0.8100 to A$1.70) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Sigma Healthcare Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The market capitalisation of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is A$31.5B (≈ $22.2B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is 2.91 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Earnings per share at Sigma Healthcare Ltd are A$0.0600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 45.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The dividend yield of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is 1.5% (payout 66.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The net margin of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is 6.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is −1.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
The operating margin of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is 8.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Revenue at Sigma Healthcare Ltd is growing +31.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +43.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG)?
Earnings per share at Sigma Healthcare Ltd are growing +44.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sigma Healthcare Ltd (SIG) carry?
The net debt of Sigma Healthcare Ltd is A$1.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 3.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 26, 2026