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Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc $23.94, price $30.25, upside -20.9%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Financial Services · US · ISIN US84336P1030

SM Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc logo Broad data Sep 23, 2026

Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc

SOMC · US

Overvalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.

!Fair value $23.94 · Overvalued (−21%)
!Quality 53/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +18.3 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 22.5% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.15% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 58/100
!Weak on valuation: 5 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

$32.00 $10.40 Fair Value $23.94 May 2017 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $10.40 – $32.00 · fair‑value band $22.10 – $28.51 · the $30.25 price screens above the $23.94 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Southern Michigan Bank & Trust that provides a range of commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, institutions, and government agencies primarily in the southwest and south-central Michigan communities.

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Southern Michigan Bancorp, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Southern Michigan Bank & Trust that provides a range of commercial banking services to individuals, businesses, institutions, and government agencies primarily in the southwest and south-central Michigan communities. Its deposit products include interest and non-interest checking, savings, and various types of money market accounts; time, savings, and demand deposits; and certificates of deposit. The company also provides home mortgages and equity loans, home equity lines of credit, and auto/personal loans; business loans, such as lines of credit, term loans, commercial real estate loans, commercial and industrial loans, agriculture loans, letters of credit, small business administration loans, and capital access loans; industrial, construction, real estate, and inventory loans; and consumer lending products comprising direct and indirect loans to purchasers of residential real property and consumer goods. In addition, it offers trust and investment services that include investment management, trustee, IRA rollovers and retirement plans, institutional and personal custody, estate settlement, wealth management, estate and wealth transfer planning assistance, charitable gift planning assistance, and cash management custody services, as well as safe deposit box and automated teller machine services. Further, the company provides treasury services, such as cash management, ACH services, business bill pay, e-statements, merchant services, payroll cards, positive pay, remote deposit capture, and wire transfers, as well as ATM, debit, credit, pay, prepaid, and gift cards; municipal, online, and mobile banking; life insurance; and bill payment and fraud protection services. The company was founded in 1871 and is based in Coldwater, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) currently trades at $30.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $23.94, implying the stock looks roughly 26.4% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $35.23 per share, and 2 of the 6 models we run sit above the $30.25 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.14, and 4 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $22.10 (bear) to $28.51 (bull), the price of $30.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc reported revenue of $93.2M in FY2025 versus $46.1M in FY2021, a compound +19.2%/yr. Reported net income was $12.2M in FY2025, compounding +1.0%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $140M · P/E ratio 9.2 · P/S ratio 1.21 · EPS (TTM) $3.28 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 13.1% · Return on equity 10.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −21%, SOMC screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $22.10 Fair Value $23.94 Bull $28.51
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.93 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income $21.26 $22.67 $25.04 76
Gordon GGM $4.49 $7.53 $9.77 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.49 $7.14 $8.10 67
All 6 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $4.49 $7.53 $9.77 68
DDM Multi-Stage $4.49 $7.14 $8.10 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $26.43 $35.23 $44.04 63
P/B Multiple $28.30 $37.74 $47.17 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $13.48 $18.06 $26.95 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $21.26 $22.67 $25.04 76

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 82

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 88
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 22
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 64
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 93
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 68
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 94
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 69
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+91.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.5%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7% vs 8%, steady
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 15%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.9% a year for the price.

SOMC screens 26% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1076 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 53 · Below median
Fair Value upside −21% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 22% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 27% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.1% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.35× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.2× · Cheapest 25%
P/B 1.16× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 2.53× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 6.9× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 5.1× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)5 · sector 11
FUTURE (revenue growth)56 · sector 45
PAST (return on equity)43 · sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)82 · sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)43 · sector 53

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
DBS Group D05 77.69 SGD 40.48 SGD −48%
China Merchants Bank Co 3968 HK$51.25 HK$62.30 +22%
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.73 €4.04 −40%
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹737.25 ₹406.85 −45%
BNP Paribas SA BNP €98.43 €105.99 +8%
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €82.18 €77.62 −6%
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $10.74 $6.75 −37%
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,340 ₹616.16 −54%
The PNC Financial Services Group PNC $224.03 $159.52 −29%
Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 32.14 SGD 19.80 SGD −38%

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Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc · Fair Value
$23.94 −26%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SOMC

Frequently asked questions

Is Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $23.94 versus a price of $30.25, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SOMC?
Our model-based fair value for Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is $23.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $30.25.
What is the quality score of SOMC?
Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $23.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.10, optimistic scenario $28.51. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $23.94, about −21% upside versus a price of $30.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.10, optimistic scenario $28.51. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $55.5M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc pay a dividend?
Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.15% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -19.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +18.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SOMC use?
Our models discount Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc at 11.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc that is -19.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc grew +18.3 % a year. The price currently implies -19.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (-19.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.42 %: that much free cash flow Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc it is $23.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $30.25. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SOMC trades above its calculated fair value: price $30.25, fair value $23.94, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SOMC?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($30.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($23.94). For Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc the two are $6.31 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc worth?
The market values Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc at about $140M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $30.25; our models calculate a fair value of $23.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SOMC?
Our models span a range for Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc: cautious scenario $22.10, base $23.94, optimistic $28.51 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $30.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SOMC?
Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.2 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $23.94 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 5.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Balance-sheet figures for Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 10.7%, debt of 0.35 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SOMC from its 52-week high?
Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc trades at $30.25, about 5% below its 52-week high of $32.00 and 31% above the low of $23.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $23.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, HDFC Bank Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $30.25, calculated fair value $23.94 (−21%), Quality Score 53/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SOMC calculated?
We run Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $23.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $30.25. Our model-based fair value is $23.94, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($28.51). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) come from?
Earnings per share at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc grew +8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.3 %, EBIT margin −0.9 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The market capitalisation of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is $140M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is 1.21 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Earnings per share at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc are $3.28 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The dividend yield of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is 2.1% (payout 19.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The net margin of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is 13.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is 10.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is 1.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
The operating margin of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is 27.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Revenue at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is growing +11.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC)?
Earnings per share at Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc are growing +7.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc (SOMC) carry?
The net debt of Southern Michigan Bancorp Inc is $24.6M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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