South32 Limited (SOUHY) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $13.2B
South32 Limited
SOUHY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 23 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 18, 2026, revised from $7.50 to $4.06 (−45.9%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +28.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 77% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.06). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.36 – $17.52 · fair‑value band $3.23 – $5.06 · the $17.52 price screens above the $4.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
South32 Limited (SOUHY) currently trades at $17.52, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.06, implying the stock looks roughly 76.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, South32 Limited generated revenue of $5.9B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue declined 2.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $42.0M. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $3.23 (bear case) to $5.06 (bull case); at $17.52, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 113% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -34% fair-value upside, at -77%, SOUHY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($7.16) versus Earnings-Based ($2.70). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The company operates through Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina, Brazil Aluminium, Hillside Aluminium, Mozal Aluminium, Sierra Gorda, Cannington, Hermosa, Australia Manganese, and South Africa Manganese segments.
Full company description
South32 Limited operates as a diversified metals and mining company. The company operates through Worsley Alumina, Brazil Alumina, Brazil Aluminium, Hillside Aluminium, Mozal Aluminium, Sierra Gorda, Cannington, Hermosa, Australia Manganese, and South Africa Manganese segments. It has a portfolio of assets producing bauxite, alumina, aluminum, copper, silver, lead, zinc, and manganese products. The company has operations in Australia, Bahrain, China, Japan, Italy, Mozambique, South Africa, the Netherlands, Brazil, South Korea, the United States, rest of Middle East, rest of Asia, rest of Europe, rest of North America, and rest of Oceania. South32 Limited was incorporated in 2000 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
South32 Limited reported revenue of $5.8B in FY2025 versus $5.5B in FY2021, a compound +1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $213M in FY2025.
SOUHY screens 77% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 476 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 942.42 MXN | -34% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$164.89 | A$81.76 | -50% |
| Grupo México, S.A. GMEXICOB | 199.23 MXN | 187.72 MXN | -6% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.19 | $9.14 | -36% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.20 | ¥16.15 | -11% |
| Fortescue Ltd FMG | A$18.47 | A$18.62 | +1% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥74.71 | ¥9.55 | -87% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹521.95 | ₹576.80 | +11% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥39.56 | ¥10.59 | -73% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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