Spire Healthcare Group Plc (SPI) Fair Value & Analysis

Healthcare · GB · Market cap 879M GBX · ISIN GB00BNLPYF73

What is Spire Healthcare Group Plc really worth?

SH Spire Healthcare Group Plc SPI · LSE

Price£2.38

Fair Value£0.9000

Upside−62.2%

Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 164% above our fair value of £0.9000.

As of Aug 20, 2026, the fair value of Spire Healthcare Group Plc is £0.9000 per share against a price of £2.38, so the fair value sits 62% below the price. A model estimate blended from multiple valuation models, recalculated regularly.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +11.4 %/yr)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Thin margins · 1.0% net margin

!Trails peers (5/14)

!Narrow moat 34/100

!Weak on future: 23 out of 100

!Weak on past: 9 out of 100

!Weak on dividend: 13 out of 100

For context

·0.63% dividend yield

Evidence: High Range £0.6800 – £1.13

Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 17 days ago

Share price +2.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£1.13). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £1.42 – £2.59 · fair‑value band £0.6800 – £1.13 · the £2.38 price screens above the £0.9000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Spire Healthcare Group Plc (SPI) currently trades at £2.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.9000, implying the stock looks roughly 164.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of £3.82 per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the £2.38 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.2600, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Spire Healthcare Group Plc generated revenue of £1.6B at a net margin of 1.0%. Revenue grew 4.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.3%. Net debt stands at £1.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £0.6800 (bear case) to £1.13 (bull case); at £2.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −62%, SPI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly £0.0171 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence

Highest evidence

FCF DCF best evidence £2.52 £3.99 £5.95 80

Growth DCF £2.54 £3.82 £5.42 78

Residual Income £1.24 £1.17 £0.8700 76

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF best evidence £2.52 £3.99 £5.95 80

Owner Earnings £0.5700 £1.19 £2.00 74

5Y Revenue Exit £2.36 £4.10 £6.30 71

5Y EBITDA Exit £4.16 £7.46 £11.30 74

5Y P/E Exit £0.8800 £1.34 £1.79 71

10Y Revenue Exit £2.30 £3.82 £5.80 66

10Y EBITDA Exit £3.44 £5.94 £9.27 67

10Y P/E Exit £1.52 £2.07 £2.66 65

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd £0.2800 £0.8600 £1.14 65

Lynch FV £0.1800 £0.2600 £0.3400 61

PEG = 1.0 £0.1800 £0.2600 £0.3400 57

EPV £1.75 £2.10 £2.39 74

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM £0.1800 £0.3200 £0.4400 68

DDM Multi-Stage £0.1800 £0.2800 £0.3400 67

Multiples

P/E Multiple £0.6800 £0.9000 £1.13 63

P/S Multiple £0.5200 £0.7000 £0.8700 58

P/B Multiple £0.5200 £0.7000 £0.8700 55

EV/EBIT £3.73 £5.24 £6.76 65

EV/EBITDA £6.06 £8.35 £10.65 67

EV/Revenue £2.42 £3.82 £5.21 53

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) £0.9300 £1.24 £1.85 54

Growth DCF

Growth DCF £2.54 £3.82 £5.42 78

Rev-Margin DCF £2.36 £4.12 £6.15 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income £1.24 £1.17 £0.8700 76

ROIC Compounder £1.75 £2.21 £2.77 72

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E £0.5500 £0.7900 £1.03 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£3.82) versus Earnings-Based (£0.2600). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 59.5

P/S ratio 0.62 P/E × margin

EPS (TTM) £0.0400 price ÷ EPS = P/E 59.5

Dividend yield 0.6% payout 37.5%

Net margin 1.0% FY2025

Return on equity 2.3% TTM

More key figures

Profitability

Return on assets (EBIT) 5.2% avg 5y

Operating margin 9.1% TTM

Growth

Revenue (TTM) £1.6B TTM

Revenue growth (YoY) +4.6% 3y avg +9.6%

EPS growth (YoY) −19.3%

Balance sheet & cash flow

Free cash flow 143M GBX FY2025

Net debt 1.3B GBX FY2025 · ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 52 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 53

Profitability 30

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 38

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 63

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 26

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 89

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 34

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 59

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 67

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 92

Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Spire Healthcare Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates private hospitals and clinics in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments: Hospitals Business and Primary Care.

Full company description

Spire Healthcare Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates private hospitals and clinics in the United Kingdom. It operates in two segments: Hospitals Business and Primary Care. The company provides diagnostics, inpatient, day case, and outpatient care in areas, including orthopedics, gynaecology, cardiology, neurology, oncology, and general surgery; and primary care needs of outpatients, such as GP services, occupational health services, and mental and physical health services. It also offers various treatments in the areas of allergy and infectious diseases, blood tests, bones and joints, digestive and bowel treatments, breast screening and surgery, cancer investigations and treatments, cosmetic surgery, cyst removal, and dental surgery, as well as ear, nose, and throat treatments. In addition, the company provides eye surgery and treatments, family planning, gastroenterology, general medicine, haematology, hand surgery, hip and knee replacement treatment, and heart and kidney treatments. Further, it offers treatments in the areas of men's health, neurosurgery and neurology, paediatrics, pain management, rehabilitation, sports, physiotherapy, podiatry, respiratory medicine, and rheumatology; and scans and investigations, skin treatments, spinal neurosurgery, sports science, urology, vascular surgery, weight loss, and women's health. Additionally, the company provides treatments in the areas of breast enlargement, cataract removal surgery, gastric bypass surgery, and prostate surgery; and offers various tests and scans, which include cardiac CT, CT, MRI, ultrasound, and X-ray scans. Spire Healthcare Group plc was founded in 2007 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Spire Healthcare Group Plc reported revenue of £1.6B in FY2025 versus £1.1B in FY2021, a compound +9.3%/yr. Reported net income was £16.4M in FY2025.

Growth Quality 84/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Latest Revenue (FY 2025)

£1.6B

Latest YoY

+4.5%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+9.6%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+11.4%

Avg. revenue growth/yr (14Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.

+6.3%

Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.

+18.6% · in GBP

Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.

Earnings growth per share+18.0%

Dividend yield0.6%

Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 18.0% vs 10Y −11.3%, picking up

Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.9.9% (2019) → 9.0% (2025) · steady

Worst earnings drop2,925% (2020) (loss year, drop beyond 100%) · in GBP

Revenue +9.3%/yr

FY21 £1.1B

FY22 £1.2B

FY23 £1.4B

FY24 £1.5B

FY25 £1.6B

Net income

FY21 −£9.7M

FY22 £8.6M

FY23 £27.3M

FY24 £25.4M

FY25 £16.4M

Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −6.9 % p.a.

Revenue per share +4.8 %

of which total revenue +5.9 % · buybacks/dilution −1.0 %

EBIT margin −3.4 %

Tax rate −1.1 %

Residual (interest, one-offs) −6.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

SPI screens 164% overvalued. Compare with HCA Healthcare, Inc →

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Spire Healthcare Group Plc · Fair Value
£0.9000 −164%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Spire Healthcare Group Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SPI.LSE

Peer Group

Medical Care Facilities · 257 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Above median

Fair Value upside −62% · Bottom 25%

Return on equity (TTM) 2% · Below median

Return on assets 4% · Above median

Net margin (TTM) 1% · Below median

Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median

Revenue growth 5% · Below median

Dividend yield (TTM) 0.6% · Bottom 25%

Debt / equity 0.49× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Medical Care Facilities median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 59.5× · Pricier than 75% of peers

P/B 1.60× · Pricier than median

P/S (TTM) 0.75× · Cheaper than median

P/FCF 8.3× · Pricier than median

EV/EBITDA 7.1× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE0 · sector 22

FUTURE23 · sector 26

PAST9 · sector 30

HEALTH76 · sector 90

DIVIDEND13 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Medical Care Facilities stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).

Stock	Price	Fair Value	vs Fair Value
HCA Healthcare, Inc HCA	$417.82	$547.67	+31%
Fresenius SE FRE	€45.25	€32.15	−29%
Dr. Sulaiman Al Habib Medical Services Group 4013	241.00 SAR	112.37 SAR	−53%
IHH Healthcare Berhad, an investment holding company, Q0F	2.67 SGD	1.44 SGD	−46%
Tenet Healthcare Corporation THC	$266.80	$330.25	+24%
DaVita Inc DVA	$180.68	$186.49	+3%
Apollo Hospitals Enterprise Limited APOLLOHOSP	₹8,818	₹2,955	−66%
Fresenius Medical Care AG FME	€39.92	€71.28	+79%
Aier Eye Hospital Group 300015	¥8.25	¥7.67	−7%
Max Healthcare Institute Limited MAXHEALTH	₹1,005	₹284.87	−72%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Spire Healthcare Group Plc (SPI) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Aug 20, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.9000 versus a price of £2.38, about −62% upside (overvalued).

What is the fair value of SPI?

Our model-based fair value for Spire Healthcare Group Plc is £0.9000 (as of Aug 20, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £2.38.

What is the quality score of SPI?

Spire Healthcare Group Plc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Spire Healthcare Group Plc (SPI)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of £0.9000 (as of Aug 20, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £0.6800, optimistic scenario £1.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Spire Healthcare Group Plc stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at £0.9000, about −62% upside versus a price of £2.38 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £0.6800, optimistic scenario £1.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Spire Healthcare Group Plc (SPI)?

Spire Healthcare Group Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £1.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 20, 2026).

What is the net profit margin of SPI?

The net profit margin of Spire Healthcare Group Plc is about 1.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

Does Spire Healthcare Group Plc pay a dividend?

Spire Healthcare Group Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.63% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 20, 2026).

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