Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Siantar Top Tbk IDR 15,496, price IDR 9,400, upside +64.9%, quality 66 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6,500 IDR – 16,425 IDR · fair‑value band 11,204 IDR – 20,145 IDR · the 9,400 IDR price screens below the 15,496 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Siantar Top Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells snacks in Indonesia. The company operates through Food Processing and Others segments. It offers rice, candies, coffee, crackers, instant noodles and snack noodles, pellets, vermicelli, biscuits, and wafers, as well as flour and seasoning products.
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PT Siantar Top Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells snacks in Indonesia. The company operates through Food Processing and Others segments. It offers rice, candies, coffee, crackers, instant noodles and snack noodles, pellets, vermicelli, biscuits, and wafers, as well as flour and seasoning products. The company provides its products under the Twistko, Tic Tic, Spix, Go Potato, Go!, Goriorio, Boyki, My Choco, Gemez Enaak, O'krimer, Maestro, Jaya Mie, Gemez, and Suki brand names. It also exports its products to Asia and the Middle East. The company was founded in 1972 and is based in Sidoarjo, Indonesia. PT Siantar Top Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Shindo Tiara Tunggal.
Stock analysis
Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) currently trades at 9,400 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 15,496 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 39.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 16,898 IDR per share, and 17 of the 24 models we run sit above the 9,400 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 3,729 IDR, and 7 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 11,204 IDR (bear) to 20,145 IDR (bull), the price of 9,400 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Siantar Top Tbk reported revenue of 5.2T IDR in FY2025 versus 4.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 1.2T IDR in FY2025, compounding +17.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 13.5T IDR (≈ $1.3B) · P/E ratio 11.0 · P/S ratio 2.48 · EPS (TTM) 854.90 IDR · Net margin 22.5% · Return on equity 16.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.4% · Operating margin 23.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −2% fair-value upside, at 65%, STTP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 11,204 IDRFair Value 15,496 IDRBull 20,145 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (625.37 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.82/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.5% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.14% vs 21%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.19% → 22%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Packaged Foods · 667 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score66 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+65% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Top 25%
Return on assets9% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)22% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Packaged Foods median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Siantar Top Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STTP
Frequently asked questions
Is Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 15,496 IDR versus a price of 9,400 IDR, about +65% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STTP?
Our model-based fair value for Siantar Top Tbk is 15,496 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 9,400 IDR.
What is the quality score of STTP?
Siantar Top Tbk has a Quality Score of 66/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 15,496 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 11,204 IDR, optimistic scenario 20,145 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Siantar Top Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 15,496 IDR, about +65% upside versus a price of 9,400 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 11,204 IDR, optimistic scenario 20,145 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Siantar Top Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 5.2T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Siantar Top Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -9.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STTP use?
Our models discount Siantar Top Tbk at 12.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.44, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Siantar Top Tbk that is -9.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Siantar Top Tbk grew +6.4 % a year. The price currently implies -9.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Siantar Top Tbk (-9.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.32 %: that much free cash flow Siantar Top Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Siantar Top Tbk it is 15,496 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 9,400 IDR. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Siantar Top Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, STTP trades below its calculated fair value: price 9,400 IDR, fair value 15,496 IDR, a gap of about +65% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STTP?
No. The price is what the market pays today (9,400 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (15,496 IDR). For Siantar Top Tbk the two are 6,096 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Siantar Top Tbk worth?
The market values Siantar Top Tbk at about 13.5T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 9,400 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 15,496 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STTP?
Our models span a range for Siantar Top Tbk: cautious scenario 11,204 IDR, base 15,496 IDR, optimistic 20,145 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 9,400 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STTP?
Siantar Top Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 11.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 15,496 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 8.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Siantar Top Tbk (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 66/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STTP from its 52-week high?
Siantar Top Tbk trades at 9,400 IDR, about 16% below its 52-week high of 11,225 IDR and 1% above the low of 9,300 IDR (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 15,496 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Siantar Top Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Nestlé S.A, Danone S.A, The Kraft Heinz Company, Foshan Haitian Flavouring and Food Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Siantar Top Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 9,400 IDR, calculated fair value 15,496 IDR (+65%), Quality Score 66/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STTP calculated?
We run Siantar Top Tbk through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 15,496 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Siantar Top Tbk currently trades 65 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 9,400 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 15,496 IDR, about +65% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Siantar Top Tbk right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (11,204 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (66/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) come from?
Earnings per share at Siantar Top Tbk grew +24.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +8.2 %, EBIT margin +10.9 %, tax rate +0.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Siantar Top Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The market capitalisation of Siantar Top Tbk is 13.5T IDR (≈ $1.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Siantar Top Tbk is 2.48 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Earnings per share at Siantar Top Tbk are 854.90 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 11.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The net margin of Siantar Top Tbk is 22.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Siantar Top Tbk is 16.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Siantar Top Tbk is 15.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
The operating margin of Siantar Top Tbk is 23.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Revenue at Siantar Top Tbk is growing −3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Siantar Top Tbk (STTP)?
Earnings per share at Siantar Top Tbk are growing −20.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Siantar Top Tbk (STTP) hold?
Siantar Top Tbk holds more cash than debt, 3.5T IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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