Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 4, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Constellation Brands Inc Class A stock $185, price $145, upside +27.4%, quality 73 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $112.77 – $256.59 · fair‑value band $92.70 – $249.71 · the $145.49 price screens below the $185.39 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 4, 2026.
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Constellation Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, produces, imports, markets, and sells beer, wine, and spirits in the United States, Canada, Mexico, New Zealand, and Italy.
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It offers beer under the Corona Extra, Corona Familiar, Corona Sunbrew, Corona Light, Corona Non-Alcoholic, Corona Premier, Modelo Especial, Modelo Chelada, Modelo Negra, Modelo Spiked Aguas Frescas, Modelo Oro, Modelo Noche Especial, Victoria, Vicky Chamoy, and Pacifico brand names.
The company also offers wine under the Sea Smoke, Schrader Cellars, Kim Crawford, Mount Veeder, Ruffino, My Favorite Neighbor, Robert Mondavi Winery, and The Prisoner Wine Company brand names; and spirits under the Casa Noble, High West, Mi CAMPO, and Nelson's Green Brier brand names.
It provides its products to wholesale distributors, retailers, and state alcohol beverage control agencies. Constellation Brands, Inc. was founded in 1945 and is headquartered in Rochester, New York.
Stock analysis
Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) currently trades at $145.49, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $185.39, implying the stock looks roughly 22% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $192.73 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $145.49 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $73.25, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $92.70 (bear) to $249.71 (bull), the price of $145.49 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Constellation Brands Inc Class A reported revenue of $9.1B in FY2026 versus $8.8B in FY2022, a compound +0.9%/yr. Reported net income was $1.7B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $25.1B Large · P/E ratio 13.0 · P/S ratio 2.72 · EPS (TTM) $11.17 · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 20.9% · Return on equity 24.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 82 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −3% fair-value upside, at 27%, STZ screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$92.70Fair Value $185.39Bull$249.71
Price $145.49 · Upside +27.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($4.86 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, one officer or director sold shares worth $631,259 and none bought.
SaleJames O. BourdeauEVP and Senior Advisor4,407 shares at $143.24$631,259May 12, 2026
SaleErnesto M HernandezDirector2,000 shares at $153.92$307,840Apr 27, 2026
SaleSamuel J GlaetzerEVP & Pres. Wine and Spirits555 shares at $153.78$85,348Feb 17, 2026
Plus 12 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−10.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+14.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−0.9% vs 6.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.33% → 31%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.5% a year for the price and −1.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Brand margins and scale in beer deliver a moderate moat, yet limited innovation and high debt relative to equity remain the chief weaknesses.
Main risk: Disruptions at its limited breweries in Mexico could interrupt supply of core Mexican beer brands and hit volumes or margins.
Bull case: The company could expand capacity at existing or new sites and strengthen its license terms to secure uninterrupted supply and broader brand use.
Bear case: Production halts at key Mexican facilities or an adverse ruling on trademark rights could sharply reduce beer availability and block new product lines.
Constellation Brands has returned to sales growth after a year of declines, with its beer business gaining dollar and volume share in the category. Much of the recent pickup stems from distributors restocking inventory rather than stronger end-consumer demand. Our models currently see the stock as undervalued, yet will the gains hold once restocking ends or will they fade back to prior trends?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score73 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+27.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)24.0% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.7% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)20.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)33.6% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)6.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.20× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Constellation Brands Inc Class A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STZ
Frequently asked questions
Is Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $185.39 versus a price of $145.49, about +27% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of STZ?
Our model-based fair value for Constellation Brands Inc Class A is $185.39 (as of Nov 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $145.49.
What is the quality score of STZ?
Constellation Brands Inc Class A has a Quality Score of 73/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $185.39 (as of Nov 4, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $92.70, optimistic scenario $249.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Constellation Brands Inc Class A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $185.39, about +27% upside versus a price of $145.49 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $92.70, optimistic scenario $249.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Constellation Brands Inc Class A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.2B (latest available figure, as of Nov 4, 2026).
Does Constellation Brands Inc Class A pay a dividend?
Constellation Brands Inc Class A currently shows a dividend yield of 2.82% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Constellation Brands Inc Class A would have to grow free cash flow by +4.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.2 % per year. As of Nov 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STZ use?
Our models discount Constellation Brands Inc Class A at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.43, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Constellation Brands Inc Class A that is +4.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Constellation Brands Inc Class A grew +1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +4.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Constellation Brands Inc Class A (+4.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.15 %: that much free cash flow Constellation Brands Inc Class A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Constellation Brands Inc Class A it is $185.39 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026), against a price of $145.49. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Constellation Brands Inc Class A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 4, 2026, STZ trades below its calculated fair value: price $145.49, fair value $185.39, a gap of about +27% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STZ?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($145.49); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($185.39). For Constellation Brands Inc Class A the two are $39.90 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Constellation Brands Inc Class A worth?
The market values Constellation Brands Inc Class A at about $25.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 4, 2026). Per share that is $145.49; our models calculate a fair value of $185.39 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STZ?
Our models span a range for Constellation Brands Inc Class A: cautious scenario $92.70, base $185.39, optimistic $249.71 per share (as of Nov 4, 2026, price $145.49). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STZ?
Constellation Brands Inc Class A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.0 (as of Nov 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $185.39 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2026 it is 16.6 (reported for FY2026: 14.9). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings, 5 of the years ex one-offs: 19.9. Other multiples: PEG 1.5, P/B 3.1, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 10.1.
What is the PEG ratio of STZ?
The PEG ratio of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 1.50 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 4, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Balance-sheet figures for Constellation Brands Inc Class A (as of Nov 4, 2026): return on equity 24.0%, debt of 1.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 73/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STZ from its 52-week high?
Constellation Brands Inc Class A trades at $145.49, about 11% below its 52-week high of $164.28 and 29% above the low of $112.77 (as of Nov 4, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $185.39 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Constellation Brands Inc Class A?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Heineken Holding, Tsingtao Brewery Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Constellation Brands Inc Class A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 4, 2026: price $145.49, calculated fair value $185.39 (+27%), Quality Score 73/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STZ calculated?
We run Constellation Brands Inc Class A through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $185.39, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.6% above its aggregate fair value. Constellation Brands Inc Class A currently trades 22% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The closing price on Nov 4, 2026 was $145.49. Our model-based fair value is $185.39, about +27% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Constellation Brands Inc Class A right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($92.70 to $249.71). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid quality (73/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) come from?
Earnings per share at Constellation Brands Inc Class A grew +6.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.7 %, EBIT margin +1.0 %, tax rate +0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Constellation Brands Inc Class A
How large is the market capitalisation of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The market capitalisation of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is $25.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 2.72 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Brands Inc Class A are $11.17 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The dividend yield of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 2.8% (payout 40.8%, on adjusted earnings, reported 36.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The net margin of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 20.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 24.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
The operating margin of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is 33.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Revenue at Constellation Brands Inc Class A is growing +6.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ)?
Earnings per share at Constellation Brands Inc Class A are growing +25.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Constellation Brands Inc Class A (STZ) carry?
The net debt of Constellation Brands Inc Class A is $11.1B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 4, 2026