Heineken Holding (HEIO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · NL · Market cap €19.4B
Fair value as of: Jul 17, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 17, 2026, revised from €72.35 to €72.67 (+0.4%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +6.6% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- Our model range runs from €54.50 (bear) to €90.84 (bull), base €72.67. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 63/100 (solid quality) with medium evidence: read the verdict with care.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €53.44 – €82.28 · fair‑value band €54.50 – €90.84 · the €74.35 price screens above the €72.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 17, 2026.
Analysis
Heineken Holding (HEIO) currently trades at €74.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €72.67, implying the stock looks roughly 2.3% fairly valued today. We read business quality at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Heineken Holding generated revenue of €28.8B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.1%. Net debt stands at €15.6B. Fundamentals as of Jul 17, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €54.50 (bear case) to €90.84 (bull case); at €74.35, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at -2%, HEIO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€117.36) versus Earnings-Based (€17.54). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 17, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 51 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders.
Full company description
Heineken Holding N.V., together with its subsidiaries, engages in brewing and selling beer and cider in the Netherlands, Europe, the Americas, Africa & Middle East, Asia Pacific and internationally. The company's portfolio consists of approximately 340 international, regional, local, and specialty beers and ciders. The company was founded in 1864 and is based in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken Holding N.V. is a subsidiary of L'Arche Green N.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heineken Holding reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €21.9B in FY2021, a compound +7.0%/yr. Reported net income was €952M in FY2025, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2021.
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Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heineken Holding N.V. reports transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken N.V. reports the progress of transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken Holding N.V. reports transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken Calls on Brandon Burgess, Max Verstappen and Other Famous F1 Faces to Launch Search for the 2027 Heineken® x F1® Season Ticket Hold
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 17, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 6,060 ARS | -57% |
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €72.28 | €46.17 | -36% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €77.24 | €65.06 | -16% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $135.72 | $177.43 | +31% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,125 | kr 607.30 | -46% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.38 | ¥60.28 | +13% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.58 | HK$6.05 | -8% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.10 | C$74.42 | +18% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥11.94 | ¥12.51 | +5% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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