Heineken N.V (HEIA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · NL · Market cap €42.9B
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 19 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from €64.89 to €65.06 (+0.3%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price +2.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 17% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (66/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€34.90 to €89.04) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €61.39 – €98.23 · fair‑value band €34.90 – €89.04 · the €78.58 price screens above the €65.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Heineken N.V (HEIA) currently trades at €78.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €65.06, implying the stock looks roughly 17.2% overvalued today. We read business quality at 66/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Heineken N.V generated revenue of €28.8B at a net margin of 6.6%. Revenue declined 2.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 9.9%. Net debt stands at €15.7B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €34.90 (bear case) to €89.04 (bull case); at €78.58, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at -17%, HEIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€61.24) versus Earnings-Based (€17.06). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks.
Full company description
Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Heineken N.V reported revenue of €28.8B in FY2025 versus €22.1B in FY2021, a compound +6.8%/yr. Reported net income was €1.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2021.
HEIA screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Ambev S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Heineken N.V. reports the progress of transactions under its current share buyback programme
- Heineken pours $3.75B into Vietnam and Mexico as only 54% of Americans still drink alcohol in 2025
- Is Heineken (ENXTAM:HEIA) Cheap, Or Is Fair Value Already Priced In?
- Heineken Calls on Brandon Burgess, Max Verstappen and Other Famous F1 Faces to Launch Search for the 2027 Heineken® x F1® Season Ticket Hold
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 6,060 ARS | -57% |
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €72.28 | €46.17 | -36% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $135.72 | $177.43 | +31% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,125 | kr 607.30 | -46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €71.20 | €72.67 | +2% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.38 | ¥60.28 | +13% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.58 | HK$6.05 | -8% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.10 | C$74.42 | +18% |
| Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 | ¥11.94 | ¥12.51 | +5% |
Compare Heineken N.V with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Defensive stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Heineken N.V (HEIA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of HEIA?
What is the quality score of HEIA?
What is the revenue of Heineken N.V (HEIA)?
What is the net profit margin of HEIA?
Does Heineken N.V pay a dividend?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Heineken N.V and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.