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Ambev S.A. (ABEV) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Ambev S.A. ARS 3,662, price ARS 14,120, upside -74.1%, quality 77 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? Yes
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Defensive · AR

AS Ambev S.A. logo Broad data Sep 24, 2026

Ambev S.A.

ABEV · BA

Quality Too ExpensiveExcellent quality, but the valuation looks stretched.

!Fair value 3,662 ARS · Strongly overvalued (−74%)
✓Quality 77/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 3y +3.4 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
✓Wide moat 77/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

15,180 ARS 518.95 ARS Fair Value 3,662 ARS Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 518.95 ARS – 15,180 ARS · fair‑value band 2,989 ARS – 4,290 ARS · the 14,120 ARS price screens above the 3,662 ARS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada.

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Ambev S.A., through its subsidiaries, engages in the production, distribution, and sale of beer, draft beer, soft drinks, malt and food, and other beverages in Brazil, Central America and Caribbean, Latin America South, and Canada. The company offers beer, ready-to-drink cocktails and spritzers, soft drinks, water, teas, and isotonic drinks under the Brahma, Skol, Antarctica, Original, Quilmes, Andes Origen, Patricia, Paceha, Huari, Pilsen, Presidente, Balboa, Guaraná Antarctica, and Beats brands. It sells its products to distributors, supermarkets, and retailers within a broad distribution network. The company was founded in 1853 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil. Ambev S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Interbrew International B.V.

Stock analysis

Ambev S.A. (ABEV) currently trades at 14,120 ARS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,662 ARS, implying the stock looks roughly 285.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 3,658 ARS per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 14,120 ARS price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 663.26 ARS, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: 2,989 ARS (bear) to 4,290 ARS (bull), the price of 14,120 ARS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Ambev S.A. reported revenue of R$88.2B in FY2025 versus R$79.7B in FY2022, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was R$15.5B in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2022.

Key figures

Market cap 221T ARS (≈ $154B) · P/E ratio 50.7 · P/S ratio 8.91 · EPS (TTM) 278.35 ARS · Dividend yield 0.0% · Net margin 17.6% · Return on equity 17.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 61 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 0% fair-value upside, at −74%, ABEV screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 2,989 ARS Fair Value 3,662 ARS Bull 4,290 ARS
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (202.99 ARS per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 2,847 ARS 3,871 ARS 5,873 ARS 77
Growth DCF 2,960 ARS 3,969 ARS 5,786 ARS 75
Owner Earnings 2,592 ARS 3,519 ARS 5,329 ARS 73
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 2,847 ARS 3,871 ARS 5,873 ARS 77
Owner Earnings 2,592 ARS 3,519 ARS 5,329 ARS 73
5Y Revenue Exit 1,777 ARS 2,269 ARS 2,981 ARS 71
5Y EBITDA Exit 2,925 ARS 4,231 ARS 5,945 ARS 72
5Y P/E Exit 2,677 ARS 3,805 ARS 5,142 ARS 68
10Y Revenue Exit 2,121 ARS 2,618 ARS 3,163 ARS 65
10Y EBITDA Exit 2,873 ARS 3,945 ARS 5,166 ARS 66
10Y P/E Exit 2,716 ARS 3,658 ARS 4,624 ARS 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1,185 ARS 2,046 ARS 2,503 ARS 64
EPV 2,191 ARS 2,541 ARS 2,852 ARS 71
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2,747 ARS 3,662 ARS 4,578 ARS 63
P/S Multiple 1,190 ARS 1,588 ARS 1,985 ARS 58
P/B Multiple 2,224 ARS 2,965 ARS 3,706 ARS 55
EV/EBIT 3,409 ARS 4,475 ARS 5,543 ARS 66
EV/EBITDA 3,405 ARS 4,470 ARS 5,536 ARS 67
EV/Revenue 1,250 ARS 1,697 ARS 2,142 ARS 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 493.96 ARS 663.26 ARS 989.66 ARS 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 2,960 ARS 3,969 ARS 5,786 ARS 75
Rev-Margin DCF 1,777 ARS 2,320 ARS 3,020 ARS 71
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1,189 ARS 1,562 ARS 5,510 ARS 61
ROIC Compounder 2,229 ARS 2,639 ARS 3,072 ARS 69
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 1,939 ARS 2,772 ARS 3,603 ARS 65

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 77/100

Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 79

Profitability 61
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 53
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 84
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 72
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 77
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 73
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 93
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 69/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years), in BRL ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in BRL: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 25%

ABEV screens 286% overvalued. Compare with Anheuser-Busch InBev SA →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 58 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 77 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −75% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Return on assets 10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 26% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.00× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 50.7× · Priciest 25%
P/B 9.15× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 9.12× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 7.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 29.1× · Priciest 25%
PEG 7.20× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 37
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 2
PAST (return on equity)69 · sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 67

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Alcohol

Similar stocks

10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Anheuser-Busch InBev SA ABI €68.34 €61.85 −9%
Heineken N.V HEIA €71.70 €69.00 −4%
Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FMX $122.03 $54.74 −55%
Constellation Brands, Inc STZ $117.59 $182.94 +56%
Heineken Holding HEIO €67.30 €63.85 −5%
Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 HK$6.03 HK$6.05 +0%
Molson Coors Beverage Company TAP $36.88 $76.21 +107%
Beijing Yanjing Brewery Co 000729 ¥11.04 ¥11.68 +6%
United Breweries Limited UBL ₹1,215 ₹147.32 −88%
Royal Unibrew A/S RBREW kr 422.60 kr 657.31 +56%

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Ambev S.A. · Fair Value
3,662 ARS −286%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ambev S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ABEV

Frequently asked questions

Is Ambev S.A. (ABEV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,662 ARS versus a price of 14,120 ARS, about −74% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ABEV?
Our model-based fair value for Ambev S.A. is 3,662 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 14,120 ARS.
What is the quality score of ABEV?
Ambev S.A. has a Quality Score of 77/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,662 ARS (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,989 ARS, optimistic scenario 4,290 ARS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Ambev S.A. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,662 ARS, about −74% upside versus a price of 14,120 ARS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 2,989 ARS, optimistic scenario 4,290 ARS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Ambev S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$88.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Ambev S.A. pay a dividend?
Ambev S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.01% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Ambev S.A. it is 3,662 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 14,120 ARS. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Ambev S.A. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, ABEV trades above its calculated fair value: price 14,120 ARS, fair value 3,662 ARS, a gap of about −74% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of ABEV?
No. The price is what the market pays today (14,120 ARS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,662 ARS). For Ambev S.A. the two are 10,458 ARS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Ambev S.A. worth?
The market values Ambev S.A. at about 221T ARS (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 14,120 ARS; our models calculate a fair value of 3,662 ARS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about ABEV?
Our models span a range for Ambev S.A.: cautious scenario 2,989 ARS, base 3,662 ARS, optimistic 4,290 ARS per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 14,120 ARS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of ABEV?
Ambev S.A. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 50.7 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,662 ARS is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.2, P/B 9.2, P/S 9.1, EV/EBITDA 29.1.
What is the PEG ratio of ABEV?
The PEG ratio of Ambev S.A. is 7.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Ambev S.A. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 17.3%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 77/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is ABEV from its 52-week high?
Ambev S.A. trades at 14,120 ARS, about 7% below its 52-week high of 15,180 ARS and 61% above the low of 8,757 ARS (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,662 ARS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Ambev S.A.?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Ambev S.A. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 14,120 ARS, calculated fair value 3,662 ARS (−74%), Quality Score 77/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of ABEV calculated?
We run Ambev S.A. through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,662 ARS, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Ambev S.A. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 14,120 ARS. Our model-based fair value is 3,662 ARS, about −74% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Ambev S.A. right now?
A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (4,290 ARS). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Key figures of Ambev S.A.

How large is the market capitalisation of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The market capitalisation of Ambev S.A. is 221T ARS (≈ $154B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Ambev S.A. is 8.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A. are 278.35 ARS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 50.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The dividend yield of Ambev S.A. is 0.0% (payout 0.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The net margin of Ambev S.A. is 17.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Ambev S.A. is 17.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Ambev S.A. is 13.8% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
The operating margin of Ambev S.A. is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Revenue at Ambev S.A. is growing −0.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Ambev S.A. (ABEV)?
Earnings per share at Ambev S.A. are growing +2.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Ambev S.A. (ABEV) generate?
The free cash flow of Ambev S.A. is R$19.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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