Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group $7.44, price $3.99, upside +86.5%, quality 70 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China.
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Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China. It provides QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music that enable users to discover, enjoy, and share music in personalized ways; long-form audio content, including audiobooks, podcasts and talk shows, as well as music-oriented video content comprising music videos, live performances, and short videos; and WeSing, which enables users to sing along from its library of karaoke songs and share their performances in audio or video formats with friends. The company also delivers music-centric live streaming services primarily through the Live Streaming tab on QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, WeSing, Kugou Live, and Kuwo Live that provides an interactive online stage for performers and users to showcase their talent and engage with audience base; and Lazy Audio, an audio platform. In addition, it sells artist-related merchandise, such as branded apparel, posters and art prints, and accessories; other music services, such as content licensing, sales of digital albums, sales of customized artist-related merchandises, live performances and concerts, and artist management services; and music subscriptions, as well as offers advertising services across its social entertainment platforms. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates as a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited.
Stock analysis
Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF) currently trades at $3.99, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.44, implying the stock looks roughly 46.4% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $10.23 per share, and 21 of the 24 models we run sit above the $3.99 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.59, and 3 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $4.96 (bear) to $10.46 (bull), the price of $3.99 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported revenue of 32.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 28.3B CNY in FY2022, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +44.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $20.4B · P/E ratio 14.9 · P/S ratio 4.99 · EPS (TTM) $0.4200 · Net margin 33.6% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.4% · Operating margin 30.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 62 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 86%, TCMEF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $4.96Fair Value $7.44Bull $10.46
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.74/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.1%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+48.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+48.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 30%
2025 sits 145% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 3 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.0% a year for the price and +6.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (26 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Tencent Music Entertainment Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 135 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+131.0% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)12.0% · Above median
Return on assets6.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)26.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)30.4% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)26.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.04× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tencent Music Entertainment Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TCMEF
Frequently asked questions
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $7.44 versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.99, about +86% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TCMEF?
Our model-based fair value for Tencent Music Entertainment Group is $7.44 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Sep 25, 2026): $3.99.
What is the quality score of TCMEF?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $7.44 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $4.96, optimistic scenario $10.46. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $7.44, about +86% upside versus the last price from Sep 25, 2026 of $3.99 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $4.96, optimistic scenario $10.46. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 33.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tencent Music Entertainment Group would have to grow free cash flow by -7.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +5.1 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TCMEF use?
Our models discount Tencent Music Entertainment Group at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tencent Music Entertainment Group that is -7.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Tencent Music Entertainment Group grew +5.1 % a year. The price currently implies -7.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tencent Music Entertainment Group (-7.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.91 %: that much free cash flow Tencent Music Entertainment Group produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Music Entertainment Group it is $7.44 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $3.99. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TCMEF trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.99, fair value $7.44, a gap of about +86% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TCMEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.99); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($7.44). For Tencent Music Entertainment Group the two are $3.45 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tencent Music Entertainment Group worth?
The market values Tencent Music Entertainment Group at about $20.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $3.99; our models calculate a fair value of $7.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TCMEF?
Our models span a range for Tencent Music Entertainment Group: cautious scenario $4.96, base $7.44, optimistic $10.46 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $3.99). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TCMEF?
Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $7.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.7, P/B 1.7, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 11.8.
What is the PEG ratio of TCMEF?
The PEG ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 1.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 70/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Music Entertainment Group?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $3.99, calculated fair value $7.44 (+86%), Quality Score 70/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TCMEF calculated?
We run Tencent Music Entertainment Group through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $7.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Music Entertainment Group currently trades 46 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The latest price we hold is from Sep 25, 2026 and stands at $3.99. Our model-based fair value is $7.44, about +86% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tencent Music Entertainment Group right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (70/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($4.96). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($4.96 to $10.46) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tencent Music Entertainment Group
How large is the market capitalisation of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The market capitalisation of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is $20.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 4.99 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Music Entertainment Group are $0.4200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The net margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 33.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 7.4% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
The operating margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 30.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Revenue at Tencent Music Entertainment Group is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TCMEF)?
Earnings per share at Tencent Music Entertainment Group are growing −51.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026