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Telefonica (TEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Telefonica €10.18, price €3.39, upside +200.0%, quality 38 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Communication Services · ES · ISIN ES0178430E18

T Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Telefonica

TEF · MC

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value €10.18 · Strongly undervalued (+200%)
!Quality 38/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −4.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -9.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Narrow moat 28/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on balance sheet: 1 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

€4.57 €2.53 Fair Value €10.18 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €2.53 – €4.57 · fair‑value band €6.84 – €16.29 · the €3.39 price screens below the €10.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America.

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Telefónica, S.A., together with its subsidiaries, provides telecommunications services in Europe and Latin America. The company offers mobile and related services and products, including mobile voice, value added, mobile data and internet, wholesale, corporate, roaming, fixed wireless, and trunking and paging services; traditional fixed telecommunication services, such as PSTN lines; ISDN accesses; public telephone services; local, domestic, and international long-distance and fixed-to-mobile communications; corporate communications; supplementary value-added services; video telephony; intelligent network; telephony information services; and leases and sells handset equipment. It also provides internet provider service; portal and network, retail and wholesale broadband access, narrowband switched access and other technologies, internet through fibre to the home, very high bit-rate digital subscriber line, and voice over internet protocol services; leased line, virtual private network, fibre optics, web and managed hosting, content delivery and application, security, and outsourcing and consultancy services, including network management or CGP; and desktop, system integration, and professional services. In addition, the company offers wholesale services for telecommunication operators, such as domestic interconnection and international wholesale services; leased lines for other operators; and local loop leasing services, as well as bit stream services, wholesale line rental accesses, and leased ducts for other operators' fiber deployment. Further, it provides video/TV services; smart connectivity and services; financial and other payment, cloud, security, advertising, and big data services; digital products; Aura, an artificial-intelligence ecosystem; Movistar Home device; open gateway; living apps; smart Wi-Fi; NT; Solar 360; and Phoenix, a digital sales platform. Telefónica, S.A. was incorporated in 1924 and is headquartered in Madrid, Spain.

Stock analysis

Telefonica (TEF) currently trades at €3.39, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €10.18, implying the stock looks roughly 66.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €10.66 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the €3.39 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at €1.41, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: €6.84 (bear) to €16.29 (bull), the price of €3.39 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Telefonica reported revenue of €35.1B in FY2025 versus €39.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −€4.3B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap €19.1B · P/S ratio 0.57 · EPS (TTM) €−0.4200 · Dividend yield 9.1% · Net margin −12.3% · Return on equity −8.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.6% · Operating margin 13.3%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 200%, TEF screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear €6.84 Fair Value €10.18 Bull €16.29
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €6.92 €10.66 €18.22 78
Growth DCF €7.36 €11.02 €17.80 77
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.13 €13.85 €21.71 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €6.92 €10.66 €18.22 78
5Y Revenue Exit €1.94 €3.36 €5.53 71
5Y EBITDA Exit €8.13 €13.85 €21.71 74
10Y Revenue Exit €3.70 €5.21 €6.79 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €7.57 €12.11 €17.22 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €3.02 €3.67 €4.37 69
DDM Multi-Stage €3.02 €4.03 €5.28 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT €0.1000 €1.41 €2.72 57
EV/EBITDA €10.88 €15.78 €20.68 67
EV/Revenue n/a €0.4300 €1.71 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €1.26 €1.69 €2.53 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €7.36 €11.02 €17.80 77
Rev-Margin DCF €1.94 €3.61 €5.87 70

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 38/100

Of which business quality 36 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 45

Profitability 4
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 10
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 59
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 8
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 77
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 87
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 18
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 85
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 15/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−15.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.9% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
13.9% (2020) → 5.3% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−5.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −7.3% a year for the price and −1.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)−4.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2029 (sales)+1.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.9%

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 252 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +200% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −10% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.97× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.53× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM) 0.61× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.7× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.1× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.38× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 35
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 16
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)1 · sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 77

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 80941 HK$67.45 HK$114.85 +70%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $162.41 $270.48 +67%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $46.45 $69.92 +51%
AT&T Inc T $25.10 $50.40 +101%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,833 ₹1,883 +3%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.10 ¥8.36 +37%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $22.29 $32.77 +47%
Saudi Telecom Company 7010 43.66 SAR 41.80 SAR −4%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z74 4.32 SGD 2.15 SGD −50%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 651.00 CHF 505.18 −22%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telefonica Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TEF

Frequently asked questions

Is Telefonica (TEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €10.18 versus a price of €3.39, about +200% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TEF?
Our model-based fair value for Telefonica is €10.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €3.39.
What is the quality score of TEF?
Telefonica has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telefonica (TEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €10.18 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario €6.84, optimistic scenario €16.29. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telefonica stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €10.18, about +200% upside versus a price of €3.39 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €6.84, optimistic scenario €16.29. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telefonica (TEF)?
Telefonica reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €35.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Telefonica pay a dividend?
Telefonica currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.11% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telefonica (TEF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telefonica would have to grow free cash flow by -5.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -4.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TEF use?
Our models discount Telefonica at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.29, country premium for Spain. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telefonica that is -5.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telefonica (TEF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telefonica grew -4.0 % a year. The price currently implies -5.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telefonica (TEF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telefonica (-5.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telefonica (TEF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 24.41 %: that much free cash flow Telefonica produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telefonica (TEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telefonica it is €10.18 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €3.39. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telefonica stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TEF trades below its calculated fair value: price €3.39, fair value €10.18, a gap of about +200% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€3.39); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€10.18). For Telefonica the two are €6.78 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telefonica worth?
The market values Telefonica at about €19.1B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €3.39; our models calculate a fair value of €10.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TEF?
Our models span a range for Telefonica: cautious scenario €6.84, base €10.18, optimistic €16.29 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €3.39). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TEF?
The PEG ratio of Telefonica is 0.38 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telefonica (TEF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telefonica (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −8.9%, debt of 1.97 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TEF from its 52-week high?
Telefonica trades at €3.39, about 22% below its 52-week high of €4.33 and 8% above the low of €3.14 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €10.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telefonica?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telefonica stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €3.39, calculated fair value €10.18 (+200%), Quality Score 38/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TEF calculated?
We run Telefonica through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €10.18, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Telefonica currently trades 200 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telefonica (TEF)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €3.39. Our model-based fair value is €10.18, about +200% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telefonica right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (38/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (€6.84). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (€6.84 to €16.29) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Telefonica

How large is the market capitalisation of Telefonica (TEF)?
The market capitalisation of Telefonica is €19.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telefonica (TEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telefonica is 0.57 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telefonica (TEF)?
Earnings per share at Telefonica are €−0.4200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telefonica (TEF)?
The dividend yield of Telefonica is 9.1%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telefonica (TEF)?
The net margin of Telefonica is −12.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telefonica (TEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telefonica is −8.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telefonica (TEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telefonica is 4.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telefonica (TEF)?
The operating margin of Telefonica is 13.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telefonica (TEF)?
Revenue at Telefonica is growing −12.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telefonica (TEF)?
Earnings per share at Telefonica are growing +26.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telefonica (TEF) carry?
The net debt of Telefonica is €41.0B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.8 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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