Telia Company AB (TELIA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Telia Company AB stock SEK 19.55, price SEK 49.10, that is 60.2% below the price, quality 50 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Our calculation puts a fair price 60% below what the stock costs today.
Generates free cash flow
4.1% dividend yield · Sustainable
Quality 50/100
Thin margins · 6.4% net margin (TTM)
Moderate debt
Moderate moat49/100 · thin data
Some data
Fair value kr 19.55 · Strongly overvalued (−60.2%)
Weak Growth(revenue 5y −1.9 %/yr in SEK)
Trails peers(4/14)
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Satellite spectrum acquisition by SpaceX for mobile network competition🚩AI agents could steer customers to cheaper plans🚩MVNOs and Ice could erode market share with lower prices
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 17.55 – kr 51.09 · fair‑value band kr 11.96 – kr 24.44 · the kr 49.10 price screens above the kr 19.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Telia Company AB (publ) provides communication services to businesses, individuals, families, and communities in Sweden, Finland, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia.
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It offers mobile, broadband, television, and fixed-line services; and networking, cloud and security, mobility, enterprise mobile network, contact center, managed mobility services, collaboration solutions, and telephony.
The company also offers Internet of Things (IoT), broadband services via mobile network and fiber, LAN and WiFi, SD-WAN, mobile LAN, dedicated private networks, and data analysis services, as well as colocation solutions.
In addition, it provides smart public transport, and smart utilities, as well as transport and logistics solutions comprising connected vehicle, GPS positioning, and fleet management services. It also provides data communication and security solutions to individuals and companies.
The company markets its products and services under the Telia, Telia Cygate, TV4, Halebop, Fello, MTV, Phonero, Onecall, MyCall, Ezys, and Diil brand names for transport and logistics, forestry, healthcare and community, agriculture, and energy and mining, as well as manufacturing industries.
Telia Company AB (publ) was formerly known as TeliaSonera AB (publ) and changed its name to Telia Company AB (publ) in April 2016. The company was founded in 1853 and is based in Solna, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Telia Company AB (TELIA) currently trades at kr 49.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 19.55, 60% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 41.85 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the kr 49.10 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at kr 12.08, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: kr 11.96 (bear) to kr 24.44 (bull), the price of kr 49.10 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Telia Company AB reported revenue of 81.0B SEK in FY2025 versus 88.3B SEK in FY2021, a compound −2.2%/yr. Reported net income was 3.5B SEK in FY2025, compounding −26.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 193B SEK (≈ $19.5B) Large · P/E ratio 36.4 · P/S ratio 2.32 · EPS (TTM) kr 1.35 · Dividend yield 4.1% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 10.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 51% fair-value upside, at −60%, TELIA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 11.96Fair Value kr 19.55Bullkr 24.44
Price kr 49.10 · Downside -60.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −0.7% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−13.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−17.2% vs −7.7%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−10% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+4.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +2.0% a year for the price and +0.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Modest infrastructure may support some durability but thin evidence, low returns and elevated leverage point to an average moat at best in mature Nordic markets.
Main risk: AI agents might help consumers identify and switch to lower-priced mobile plans from rivals, which could pressure Telia's service revenues and margins in its core Nordic markets.
Bull case: Telia could leverage its 5G standalone and enterprise partnerships in Norway to offer differentiated private networks and sensor solutions that AI agents could not easily replicate, potentially offsetting any pressure on consumer mobile plans.
Bear case: If AI-driven plan switching accelerates and MVNOs plus Ice continue gaining share, Telia's traditional mobile operations could face sustained margin compression and slower growth in its core Nordic footprint.
Telia is stepping into a Norwegian technology cluster as main partner, supplying 5G standalone, private networks and sensor solutions for maritime, autonomy, defence and security applications. This enterprise-focused move comes as the core Nordic telecom operations face mature markets and limited organic growth. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will these specialised partnerships create meaningful new revenue streams or stay marginal beside the traditional business?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score50 · Below median
Fair Value upside−60.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)10.4% · Above median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)20.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)7.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.25× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)36.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B3.78× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)2.32× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)15.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA9.0× · Pricier than median
PEG2.26× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 43
FUTURE (revenue growth)37· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)42· sector 33
HEALTH (low debt)38· sector 83
DIVIDEND (yield)83· sector 72
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telia Company AB Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TELIA
Frequently asked questions
Is Telia Company AB (TELIA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 19.55 versus a price of kr 49.10, about 60% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TELIA?
Our model-based fair value for Telia Company AB is kr 19.55 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 49.10.
What is the quality score of TELIA?
Telia Company AB has a Quality Score of 50/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 19.55 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 11.96, optimistic scenario kr 24.44. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telia Company AB stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 19.55, about 60% lower versus a price of kr 49.10 (overvalued). Cautious scenario kr 11.96, optimistic scenario kr 24.44. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Telia Company AB reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 83.3B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Telia Company AB pay a dividend?
Telia Company AB currently shows a dividend yield of 4.13% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Telia Company AB (TELIA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Telia Company AB pays a dividend of kr 2.03 per share a year, a dividend yield of 4.1%. The last ex-dividend date was Oct 28, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2001. The payout ratio is 150% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 1.58 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telia Company AB would have to grow free cash flow by +4.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.9 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TELIA use?
Our models discount Telia Company AB at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.23, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telia Company AB that is +4.0 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telia Company AB (TELIA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telia Company AB grew -1.9 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +4.0 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telia Company AB (TELIA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telia Company AB (+4.0 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.54 %: that much free cash flow Telia Company AB produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telia Company AB it is kr 19.55 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of kr 49.10. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Telia Company AB stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TELIA trades above its calculated fair value: price kr 49.10, fair value kr 19.55, a gap of about −60% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TELIA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 49.10); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 19.55). For Telia Company AB the two are kr 29.55 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telia Company AB worth?
The market values Telia Company AB at about 193B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is kr 49.10; our models calculate a fair value of kr 19.55 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TELIA?
Our models span a range for Telia Company AB: cautious scenario kr 11.96, base kr 19.55, optimistic kr 24.44 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price kr 49.10). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TELIA?
Telia Company AB trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.4 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 19.55 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 33.1. Other multiples: PEG 2.3, P/B 3.8, P/S 2.3, EV/EBITDA 9.0.
What is the PEG ratio of TELIA?
The PEG ratio of Telia Company AB is 2.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 8, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telia Company AB (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 10.4%, debt of 1.25 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 50/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TELIA from its 52-week high?
Telia Company AB trades at kr 49.10, about 4% below its 52-week high of kr 51.09 and 39% above the low of kr 35.33 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 19.55 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telia Company AB?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telia Company AB stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price kr 49.10, calculated fair value kr 19.55 (−60%), Quality Score 50/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TELIA calculated?
We run Telia Company AB through 22 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 19.55 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Telia Company AB itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 49.10. Our model-based fair value is kr 19.55, about 60% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telia Company AB right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (kr 24.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (kr 11.96 to kr 24.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Telia Company AB (TELIA) come from?
Earnings per share at Telia Company AB grew −8.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.5 %, EBIT margin −8.0 %, tax rate +0.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −1.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Telia Company AB
How large is the market capitalisation of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The market capitalisation of Telia Company AB is 193B SEK (≈ $19.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telia Company AB is 2.32 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Earnings per share at Telia Company AB are kr 1.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The dividend yield of Telia Company AB is 4.1% (payout 150%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The net margin of Telia Company AB is 6.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telia Company AB is 10.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telia Company AB is 4.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
The operating margin of Telia Company AB is 20.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Revenue at Telia Company AB is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telia Company AB (TELIA)?
Earnings per share at Telia Company AB are growing +14.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telia Company AB (TELIA) carry?
The net debt of Telia Company AB is 90.4B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 7.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 8, 2026