Telenor ASA (TELNY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Telenor ASA $13.70, price $13.32, upside +2.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.75 – $18.21 · fair‑value band $10.16 – $17.13 · the $13.32 price screens below the $13.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Telenor ASA, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecommunication company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Nordics, Asia, Infrastructure, and Amp.
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Telenor ASA, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a telecommunication company worldwide. It operates through four segments: Nordics, Asia, Infrastructure, and Amp. The company offers mobile and broadband telecom products and services, including mobile, broadband and TV services; other services, including solutions for business customers like managed services, virtual private networks, software defined networks, and network as a service; IoT solutions; and mobile maritime communication for cruise and ferry, fisheries, and oil and gas industry. It also provides hardware comprising mobile phones, broadband modems, and TV boxes; wholesale services, such as national and international roaming and interconnect, and solutions for mobile and fixed virtual network operators and service providers, as well as leased lines and colocation at towers and data centres. In addition, the company provides cloud storage service for private use and businesses that allows to back up, store, synchronize, and share files over the Internet. Telenor ASA was founded in 1855 and is headquartered in Fornebu, Norway.
Stock analysis
Telenor ASA ADR (TELNY) currently trades at $13.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.70, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $14.66 per share, and 10 of the 24 models we run sit above the $13.32 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.65, and 14 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $10.16 (bear) to $17.13 (bull), the price of $13.32 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Telenor ASA ADR reported revenue of 76.5B NOK in FY2025 versus 110B NOK in FY2021, a compound −8.7%/yr. Reported net income was 8.2B NOK in FY2025, compounding −7.8%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $20.4B · P/E ratio 10.5 · P/S ratio 1.12 · EPS (TTM) $1.27 · Dividend yield 7.0% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 22.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at 3%, TELNY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $10.16Fair Value $13.70Bull $17.13
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−4.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −5.0% a year
Revenue growth 26 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+1.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−6.3% vs 10.2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 24%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−2.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in NOK, Norway: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −5.2% a year for the price and −2.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside−10.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)22.5% · Top 25%
Return on assets5.2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)17.1% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)22.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.02× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
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As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.70 versus a price of $13.32, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TELNY?
Our model-based fair value for Telenor ASA ADR is $13.70 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $13.32.
What is the quality score of TELNY?
Telenor ASA ADR has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.70 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $10.16, optimistic scenario $17.13. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telenor ASA ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.70, about +3% upside versus a price of $13.32 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $10.16, optimistic scenario $17.13. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Telenor ASA ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 76.3B NOK (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Telenor ASA ADR pay a dividend?
Telenor ASA ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.97% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telenor ASA ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -2.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -9.0 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TELNY use?
Our models discount Telenor ASA ADR at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.25, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telenor ASA ADR that is -2.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telenor ASA (TELNY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telenor ASA ADR grew -9.0 % a year. The price currently implies -2.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telenor ASA (TELNY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telenor ASA ADR (-2.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.01 %: that much free cash flow Telenor ASA ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telenor ASA ADR it is $13.70 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $13.32. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telenor ASA ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TELNY trades below its calculated fair value: price $13.32, fair value $13.70, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TELNY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($13.32); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.70). For Telenor ASA ADR the two are $0.3800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telenor ASA ADR worth?
The market values Telenor ASA ADR at about $20.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $13.32; our models calculate a fair value of $13.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TELNY?
Our models span a range for Telenor ASA ADR: cautious scenario $10.16, base $13.70, optimistic $17.13 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $13.32). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TELNY?
Telenor ASA ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.5 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $13.70 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 2.7, P/S 2.6, EV/EBITDA 9.5.
What is the PEG ratio of TELNY?
The PEG ratio of Telenor ASA ADR is 1.39 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telenor ASA ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 22.5%, debt of 1.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TELNY from its 52-week high?
Telenor ASA ADR trades at $13.32, about 27% below its 52-week high of $18.21 and at the low of $13.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $13.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telenor ASA ADR?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telenor ASA ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $13.32, calculated fair value $13.70 (+3%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TELNY calculated?
We run Telenor ASA ADR through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Telenor ASA ADR currently trades 3 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $13.32. Our model-based fair value is $13.70, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telenor ASA ADR right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Telenor ASA (TELNY) come from?
Earnings per share at Telenor ASA ADR grew +12.4 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −3.8 %, EBIT margin +2.8 %, tax rate +6.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +7.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Telenor ASA ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The market capitalisation of Telenor ASA ADR is $20.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telenor ASA ADR is 1.12 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Earnings per share at Telenor ASA ADR are $1.27 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The dividend yield of Telenor ASA ADR is 7.0% (payout 73.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The net margin of Telenor ASA ADR is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telenor ASA ADR is 22.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telenor ASA ADR is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
The operating margin of Telenor ASA ADR is 22.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Revenue at Telenor ASA ADR is growing −1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −8.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telenor ASA (TELNY)?
Earnings per share at Telenor ASA ADR are growing +274% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telenor ASA (TELNY) carry?
The net debt of Telenor ASA ADR is 84.3B NOK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 4.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026