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Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Triumph Financial, Inc. stock $22.65, price $61.23, that is 63.0% below the price, quality 49 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

TF Triumph Financial, Inc. logo Some data Nov 7, 2026

Triumph Financial, Inc.

TFIN · US
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 63% below what the stock costs today.

Solidly profitable · 10.7% net margin (TTM)
Upbeat coverage
Revenue last quarter +19% vs. a year ago.
Quality 49/100
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +6.7 %/yr in USD)
Insiders sold $703,743 (6M)
Some data
Fair value $22.65 · Strongly overvalued (−63.0%)
Trails peers (2/14)
Narrow moat 39/100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$133.63 $45.99 Fair Value $22.65 Aug 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $45.99 – $133.63 · fair‑value band $16.99 – $25.19 · the $61.23 price screens above the $22.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.

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Company profile

Triumph Financial, Inc., a financial holding company, provides banking, factoring, payments, and intelligence services in the United States.

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It offers deposit products, including checking, savings, money market, and certificates of deposit; and loan products, such as commercial real estate, commercial construction, land, and land development, residential real estate, agriculture, and consumer loans, as well as commercial and industrial loans, equipment loans, asset-based loans, business loans for working capital and operational purposes, and liquid credit loans.

The company also provides electronic banking services, debit cards, insurance brokerage services, mortgage warehouse facilities, and transportation factoring services; payment, audit, and other banking services for the over the road trucking industry; and LoadPay product, a digital bank account developed for Carriers, as well as provides service and performance scoring and benchmarking to the over-the-road trucking industry.

The company was formerly known as Triumph Bancorp, Inc. and changed its name to Triumph Financial, Inc. in December 2022. Triumph Financial, Inc. was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.

Stock analysis

Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) currently trades at $61.23, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $22.65, 63% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $23.23 per share, and 0 of the 4 models we run sit above the $61.23 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $15.08, and 4 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $16.99 (bear) to $25.19 (bull), the price of $61.23 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 49/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Triumph Financial, Inc. reported revenue of $516M in FY2025 versus $442M in FY2021, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was $25.4M in FY2025, compounding −31.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $1.5B Small · P/E ratio 31.2 · P/S ratio 3.15 · EPS (TTM) $1.96 · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 5.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% (5-year average) · Operating margin 21.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 39 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −28% fair-value upside, at −63%, TFIN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $16.99 Fair Value $22.65 Bull $25.19
Price $61.23 · Downside -63.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.68 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $22.54 $23.23 $25.19 71
P/E Multiple $10.34 $13.78 $17.23 63
P/B Multiple $23.64 $31.52 $39.40 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $10.34 $13.78 $17.23 63
P/B Multiple $23.64 $31.52 $39.40 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $11.26 $15.08 $22.51 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income $22.54 $23.23 $25.19 71

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 49/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 17
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 49
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 67
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 13
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 84
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 35
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 35
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 41
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 69
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors sold shares worth $703,743 and none bought.

  • SaleEdward Joseph SchreyerEVP, Chief Operating Officer2× since May 22, 2026: 5,800 shares, avg. $70.23$407,305Aug 20, 202610b5-1 plan
  • SaleAdam D NelsonEVP and General Counsel2× since Dec 18, 2025: 6,750 shares, avg. $72.89$491,978Aug 4, 2026
  • BuyTodd RitterbuschPresident - TBK Bank, SSB7,000 shares at $67.01$469,070May 8, 2026
  • SaleWilliam B. VossChief Financial Officer427 shares at $59.57$25,436Mar 10, 2026
  • BuyAaron P GraftPresident & CEO, Director8,949 shares at $55.87$499,981Feb 27, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 78/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +16.0% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.6%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
−17.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−17.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−16.4% vs −3.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 6%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)

TFIN screens overvalued: fair value 63% below the price. Compare with China Merchants Bank Co →

Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 998 stocks

Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 49 · Below median
Fair Value upside −63.0% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 5.3% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) 10.7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 21.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 19.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.42× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 31.2× · Priciest 25%
P/B 1.57× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 3.15× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 29.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 33.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG 1.62× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 8
FUTURE (revenue growth)95 · sector 47
PAST (return on equity)21 · sector 43
HEALTH (low debt)–
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 53

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

HEALTH: for banks, insurers and similar financial firms borrowed money is part of the business, so we do not rate debt here.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Postal Savings Bank of China Co 601658 ¥5.53 ¥7.59 +37% vs TFIN
China Merchants Bank Co 600036 ¥42.88 ¥52.73 +23% vs TFIN
BNP Paribas SA BNP €91.93 €106.01 +15% vs TFIN
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP €6.18 €4.49 −27% vs TFIN
State Bank of India SBIN ₹1,019 ₹736.65 −28% vs TFIN
UniCredit S.p.A UCG €76.80 €50.44 −34% vs TFIN
Mizuho Financial Group MFG $9.40 $5.90 −37% vs TFIN
DBS Group D05 69.72 SGD 40.39 SGD −42% vs TFIN
HDFC Bank Limited HDFCBANK ₹788.25 ₹406.39 −48% vs TFIN
ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK ₹1,571 ₹615.63 −61% vs TFIN

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Triumph Financial, Inc.: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Triumph Financial, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TFIN

Frequently asked questions

Is Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $22.65 versus a price of $61.23, about 63% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TFIN?
Our model-based fair value for Triumph Financial, Inc. is $22.65 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $61.23.
What is the quality score of TFIN?
Triumph Financial, Inc. has a Quality Score of 49/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $22.65 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $16.99, optimistic scenario $25.19. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Triumph Financial, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $22.65, about 63% lower versus a price of $61.23 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $16.99, optimistic scenario $25.19. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Triumph Financial, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $470M (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Triumph Financial, Inc. pay a dividend?
Triumph Financial, Inc. does not currently pay a dividend.
What is the intrinsic value of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Triumph Financial, Inc. it is $22.65 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of $61.23. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is Triumph Financial, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TFIN trades above its calculated fair value: price $61.23, fair value $22.65, a gap of about −63% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TFIN?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($61.23); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($22.65). For Triumph Financial, Inc. the two are $38.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Triumph Financial, Inc. worth?
The market values Triumph Financial, Inc. at about $1.5B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is $61.23; our models calculate a fair value of $22.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TFIN?
Our models span a range for Triumph Financial, Inc.: cautious scenario $16.99, base $22.65, optimistic $25.19 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price $61.23). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TFIN?
Triumph Financial, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.2 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $22.65 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2020, FY2023 ex one-offs: 20.1. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.6, P/S 3.1, EV/EBITDA 33.9.
What is the PEG ratio of TFIN?
The PEG ratio of Triumph Financial, Inc. is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Triumph Financial, Inc. (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.3%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 49/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TFIN from its 52-week high?
Triumph Financial, Inc. trades at $61.23, about 24% below its 52-week high of $81.08 and 21% above the low of $50.56 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $22.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Triumph Financial, Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value China Merchants Bank Co, DBS Group, UniCredit S.p.A, Mizuho Financial Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Triumph Financial, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price $61.23, calculated fair value $22.65 (−63%), Quality Score 49/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TFIN calculated?
We run Triumph Financial, Inc. through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $22.65 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Triumph Financial, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $61.23. Our model-based fair value is $22.65, about 63% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Triumph Financial, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($25.19). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (49/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) come from?
Earnings per share at Triumph Financial, Inc. grew −2.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.4 %, EBIT margin −15.1 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Triumph Financial, Inc.

How large is the market capitalisation of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
The market capitalisation of Triumph Financial, Inc. is $1.5B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Triumph Financial, Inc. is 3.15 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Earnings per share at Triumph Financial, Inc. are $1.96 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
The net margin of Triumph Financial, Inc. is 10.7% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Triumph Financial, Inc. is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Triumph Financial, Inc. is 1.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
The operating margin of Triumph Financial, Inc. is 21.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Revenue at Triumph Financial, Inc. is growing +19.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN)?
Earnings per share at Triumph Financial, Inc. are growing +12.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) generate?
The free cash flow of Triumph Financial, Inc. is $50.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Triumph Financial, Inc. (TFIN) carry?
The net debt of Triumph Financial, Inc. is $144M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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