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Tungsten Mining NL (TGN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tungsten Mining NL stock A$0.02, price A$0.18, upside -90.6%, quality 28 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU000000TGN3

TM Tungsten Mining NL logo Thin data Oct 26, 2026

Tungsten Mining NL

TGN · AU

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

Our calculation puts a fair price 91% below what the stock costs today.

Fair value A$0.0170 · Strongly overvalued (−90.6%)
Quality 28/100
Weak Growth (revenue 5y −8.9 %/yr in AUD)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (1/7)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Insider activity 30/100
Thin data
⟳ Cyclical⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.3950 A$0.0440 Fair Value A$0.0170 Aug 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range A$0.0440 – A$0.3950 · fair‑value band A$0.0085 – A$0.0255 · the A$0.1800 price screens above the A$0.0170 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 26, 2026.

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Company profile

Tungsten Mining NL engages in the exploration, evaluation, and development of mineral resources in Australia. It primarily explores for tungsten, molybdenum, gold, silver, copper, bismuth deposits, and other minerals.

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The company's flagship property is the 100% owned Mt Mulgine project located in the Murchison region of Western Australia. Tungsten Mining NL was incorporated in 2011 and is based in West Perth, Australia.

Stock analysis

Tungsten Mining NL (TGN) currently trades at A$0.1800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0170, 90.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0085 (bear) to A$0.0255 (bull), the price of A$0.1800 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 28/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Tungsten Mining NL reported revenue of A$107K in FY2025 versus A$143K in FY2021, a compound −7.2%/yr. Reported net income was −A$19.1M in FY2026.

Key figures

Market cap A$279M (≈ $196M) Micro · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0200 · Return on equity −36.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −16.2% · Operating margin 1,431,407% · Revenue growth (YoY) +229% · Free cash flow −A$11.2M · Net cash A$48.7M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 54% below its 52-week high and 89% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −91%, TGN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0085 Fair Value A$0.0170 Bull A$0.0255
Price A$0.1800 · Upside -90.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 50

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 28/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 0
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 2
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 99
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 0
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 47
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 64
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−8.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.8% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−8,070.2% (2020) → −5,459.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

TGN screens overvalued: fair value 91% below the price. Compare with Saudi Arabian Mining Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 384 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/6 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 28 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −90.6% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −20.7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 228.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper

P/B 3.73× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 85.82× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 76
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 33

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Vedanta Limited VEDL ₹236.85 ₹613.43 +159% vs TGN
Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co 603799 ¥31.74 ¥54.86 +73% vs TGN
CMOC Group 603993 ¥14.15 ¥19.48 +38% vs TGN
Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 52.10 SAR 57.31 SAR +10% vs TGN
Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC ₹496.00 ₹545.60 +10% vs TGN
Western Mining Co 601168 ¥31.67 ¥34.84 +10% vs TGN
Boliden AB BOL kr 508.40 kr 464.45 −9% vs TGN
Korea Zinc Company 010130 913,000 KRW 649,125 KRW −29% vs TGN
Ivanhoe Mines Ltd IVN C$9.16 C$4.44 −52% vs TGN
China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 ¥44.00 ¥4.44 −90% vs TGN

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Tungsten Mining NL · Fair Value
A$0.0170 −91%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tungsten Mining NL Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGN.AU

Frequently asked questions

Is Tungsten Mining NL (TGN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 26, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0170 versus a price of A$0.1800, about −91% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TGN?
Our model-based fair value for Tungsten Mining NL is A$0.0170 (as of Oct 26, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.1800.
What is the quality score of TGN?
Tungsten Mining NL has a Quality Score of 28/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0170 (as of Oct 26, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0085, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tungsten Mining NL stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0170, about −91% upside versus a price of A$0.1800 (overvalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0085, optimistic scenario A$0.0255. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tungsten Mining NL it is A$0.0170 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026), against a price of A$0.1800. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tungsten Mining NL stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 26, 2026, TGN trades above its calculated fair value: price A$0.1800, fair value A$0.0170, a gap of about −91% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.1800); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0170). For Tungsten Mining NL the two are A$0.1630 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tungsten Mining NL worth?
The market values Tungsten Mining NL at about A$279M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 26, 2026). Per share that is A$0.1800; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0170 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGN?
Our models span a range for Tungsten Mining NL: cautious scenario A$0.0085, base A$0.0170, optimistic A$0.0255 per share (as of Oct 26, 2026, price A$0.1800). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tungsten Mining NL (as of Oct 26, 2026): return on equity −36.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 28/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGN from its 52-week high?
Tungsten Mining NL trades at A$0.1800, about 54% below its 52-week high of A$0.3950 and 89% above the low of A$0.0950 (as of Oct 26, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0170 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tungsten Mining NL?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Saudi Arabian Mining Company, CMOC Group, Hindustan Zinc Limited, China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tungsten Mining NL stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 26, 2026: price A$0.1800, calculated fair value A$0.0170 (−91%), Quality Score 28/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGN calculated?
We run Tungsten Mining NL through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0170, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. Tungsten Mining NL itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was A$0.1800. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0170, about −91% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tungsten Mining NL right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (A$0.0255). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (28/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (A$0.0085 to A$0.0255). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Tungsten Mining NL

How large is the market capitalisation of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
The market capitalisation of Tungsten Mining NL is A$279M (≈ $196M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
Earnings per share at Tungsten Mining NL are A$−0.0200. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tungsten Mining NL is −36.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tungsten Mining NL is −16.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
The operating margin of Tungsten Mining NL is 1,431,407% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tungsten Mining NL (TGN)?
Revenue at Tungsten Mining NL is growing +229% versus a year earlier (3y avg +72.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tungsten Mining NL (TGN) generate?
The free cash flow of Tungsten Mining NL is −A$11.2M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tungsten Mining NL (TGN) hold?
Tungsten Mining NL holds more cash than debt, A$48.7M net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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