Target Hospitality Corp (TH) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Target Hospitality Corp stock $2.80, price $11.36, that is 75.4% below the price, quality 37 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 7 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.88 – $21.45 · fair‑value band $1.58 – $5.16 · the $11.36 price screens above the $2.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 9, 2026.
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Target Hospitality Corp. operates as a specialty rental and hospitality services company in North America. It operates through Hospitality & Facilities Services " South, Workforce Hospitality Solutions, and Government segments. The company owns a network of specialty rental accommodation units.
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It also provides catering and food, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, security, health and recreation facilities, workforce community management, concierge, and laundry services. In addition, the company offers construction services.
It serves the U.S. government contractors and investment grade natural resource development companies. Target Hospitality Corp. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Stock analysis
Target Hospitality Corp (TH) currently trades at $11.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.80, 75% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.16 per share, and 0 of the 5 models we run sit above the $11.36 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.11, and 5 of the 5 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $1.58 (bear) to $5.16 (bull), the price of $11.36 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Target Hospitality Corp reported revenue of $321M in FY2025 versus $291M in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.1M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $1.1B Small · P/S ratio 3.96 · EPS (TTM) $−0.3800 · Net margin −10.9% · Return on equity −9.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.8% (5-year average) · Operating margin −8.8% · Revenue (TTM) $347M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 16 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 83% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −75%, TH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.58Fair Value $2.80Bull$5.16
Price $11.36 · Downside -75.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
In the last 6 months, 2 officers or directors bought shares worth $375,158, most recently on Sep 18, 2026. Buying cluster
SaleTDR Capital II Investments LP10% owner11,000,000 shares at $18.40$202.4MOct 1, 2026
BuyTroy C. SchrenkChief Commercial Officer5,907 shares at $21.16$124,992Sep 18, 2026
BuyJames Bradley ArcherDirector and CEO and President, Director13,385 shares at $18.69$250,166Sep 15, 2026
SaleHeidi Diane LewisEVP, General Counsel & Sec3× since Nov 17, 2025: 31,456 shares, avg. $7.65$240,736Jan 20, 202610b5-1 plan
BuyStephen RobertsonDirector2× since Nov 17, 2025: 270,000 shares, avg. $7.35$2.0MDec 3, 2025
Plus 16 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−17.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−13.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.8% (2020) → −8.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+70.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+53.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +66.4% a year for the price and +49.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Business Services · 229 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score37 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−75.4% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−7.0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−10.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)−8.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)38.7% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.46× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
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Is Target Hospitality Corp (TH) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 9, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.80 versus a price of $11.36, about 75% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TH?
Our model-based fair value for Target Hospitality Corp is $2.80 (as of Nov 9, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.36.
What is the quality score of TH?
Target Hospitality Corp has a Quality Score of 37/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.80 (as of Nov 9, 2026) from 7 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $5.16. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Target Hospitality Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.80, about 75% lower versus a price of $11.36 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.58, optimistic scenario $5.16. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Target Hospitality Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $347M (latest available figure, as of Nov 9, 2026).
What growth is priced into Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Target Hospitality Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +70.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +7.3 % per year. As of Nov 9, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TH use?
Our models discount Target Hospitality Corp at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.49, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Target Hospitality Corp that is +70.3 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Target Hospitality Corp (TH) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Target Hospitality Corp grew +7.3 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +70.3 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Target Hospitality Corp (TH) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Target Hospitality Corp (+70.3 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.55 %: that much free cash flow Target Hospitality Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Target Hospitality Corp it is $2.80 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026), against a price of $11.36. It is the blended result of 7 valuation models in 4 families (DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF).
Is Target Hospitality Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 9, 2026, TH trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.36, fair value $2.80, a gap of about −75% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TH?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.36); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.80). For Target Hospitality Corp the two are $8.56 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Target Hospitality Corp worth?
The market values Target Hospitality Corp at about $1.1B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 9, 2026). Per share that is $11.36; our models calculate a fair value of $2.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TH?
Our models span a range for Target Hospitality Corp: cautious scenario $1.58, base $2.80, optimistic $5.16 per share (as of Nov 9, 2026, price $11.36). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TH?
The PEG ratio of Target Hospitality Corp is 1.09 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 9, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Balance-sheet figures for Target Hospitality Corp (as of Nov 9, 2026): return on equity −9.8%, debt of 0.46 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 37/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TH from its 52-week high?
Target Hospitality Corp trades at $11.36, about 47% below its 52-week high of $21.45 and 83% above the low of $6.22 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Target Hospitality Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Cintas Corporation, Thomson Reuters Corporation, Copart, Inc, Global Payments Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Target Hospitality Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 9, 2026: price $11.36, calculated fair value $2.80 (−75%), Quality Score 37/100, from 7 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TH calculated?
We run Target Hospitality Corp through 7 models from 4 families: DCF Models, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.80 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Target Hospitality Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $11.36. Our model-based fair value is $2.80, about 75% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Target Hospitality Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (37/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.58 to $5.16). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Key figures of Target Hospitality Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The market capitalisation of Target Hospitality Corp is $1.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Target Hospitality Corp is 3.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Earnings per share at Target Hospitality Corp are $−0.3800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The net margin of Target Hospitality Corp is −10.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Target Hospitality Corp is −9.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Target Hospitality Corp is 14.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
The operating margin of Target Hospitality Corp is −8.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Revenue at Target Hospitality Corp is growing +38.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −13.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Target Hospitality Corp (TH)?
Earnings per share at Target Hospitality Corp are growing −59.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Target Hospitality Corp (TH) carry?
The net debt of Target Hospitality Corp is $2.3M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Nov 9, 2026