Target Hospitality Corp (TH) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $2.0B
Target Hospitality Corp
TH · US
Fair value as of: Jul 21, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 20 days ago
Share price −9.4% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 83% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.39). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (38/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($1.95 to $5.39). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.30 – $20.52 · fair‑value band $1.95 – $5.39 · the $16.51 price screens above the $2.89 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 21, 2026.
Analysis
Target Hospitality Corp (TH) currently trades at $16.51, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.89, implying the stock looks roughly 82.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Target Hospitality Corp generated revenue of $324M at a net margin of -13.5%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -11.0%. Net debt stands at $2.3M. Fundamentals as of Jul 21, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.95 (bear case) to $5.39 (bull case); at $16.51, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 177% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -35% fair-value upside, at -83%, TH screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($3.73) versus Dividend Discount ($0.0200). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 21, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Target Hospitality Corp. operates as a specialty rental and hospitality services company in North America. It operates through Hospitality & Facilities Services " South, Workforce Hospitality Solutions, and Government segments. The company owns a network of specialty rental accommodation units.
Full company description
Target Hospitality Corp. operates as a specialty rental and hospitality services company in North America. It operates through Hospitality & Facilities Services " South, Workforce Hospitality Solutions, and Government segments. The company owns a network of specialty rental accommodation units. It also provides catering and food, maintenance, housekeeping, grounds-keeping, security, health and recreation facilities, workforce community management, concierge, and laundry services. In addition, the company offers construction services. It serves the U.S. government contractors and investment grade natural resource development companies. Target Hospitality Corp. was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in The Woodlands, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Target Hospitality Corp reported revenue of $321M in FY2025 versus $291M in FY2021, a compound +2.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$37.1M in FY2025.
TH screens 83% overvalued. Compare with Cintas Corporation →
Peer Group
Specialty Business Services · 255 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Business Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Business Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 21, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cintas Corporation CTAS | $206.25 | $95.30 | -54% |
| RELX PLC RELX | $33.70 | $32.49 | -4% |
| Thomson Reuters Corporation TRI | C$133.87 | C$70.40 | -47% |
| Copart, Inc CPRT | $27.61 | $28.59 | +4% |
| Global Payments Inc GPN | $80.49 | $69.67 | -13% |
| RB Global, Inc RBA | C$156.43 | C$49.14 | -69% |
| Brambles Limited BXB | A$18.79 | A$12.28 | -35% |
| UL Solutions Inc ULS | $87.76 | $33.62 | -62% |
| Wolters Kluwer N.V WKL | €62.56 | €103.99 | +66% |
| Aramark ARMK | $56.74 | $13.73 | -76% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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