Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Telecom Italia S.p.A $3.46, price $8.28, upside -58.2%, quality 48 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.54 – $12.80 · fair‑value band $2.59 – $4.32 · the $8.28 price screens above the $3.46 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Telecom Italia S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the fixed and mobile telecommunications services and products for individuals, households, and supports small and medium-sized enterprises in Italy and internationally. It operates through Domestic, Brazil, and Other Operations segments.
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Telecom Italia S.p.A., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the fixed and mobile telecommunications services and products for individuals, households, and supports small and medium-sized enterprises in Italy and internationally. It operates through Domestic, Brazil, and Other Operations segments. The company offers telephone and internet services, as well as products managed and developed in landline and mobile for individuals and families; voice, data, and internet services and products; and information and communications technology solutions for top, public sector and large account customers. It also provides connectivity services; mobile phone services and fiber optic data transmission using IP technology and residential broadband services; and internet of things services. Telecom Italia S.p.A. was incorporated in 1908 and is headquartered in Rome, Italy.
Stock analysis
Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF) currently trades at $8.28, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.46, 58.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $4.56 per share, and 6 of the 21 models we run sit above the $8.28 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $1.31, and 15 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.59 (bear) to $4.32 (bull), the price of $8.28 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
Telecom Italia S.p.A reported revenue of €13.7B in FY2025 versus €15.3B in FY2021, a compound −2.7%/yr. Reported net income was €297M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $17.1B · P/E ratio 41.4 · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) $0.2000 · Dividend yield 1.6% · Net margin 2.2% · Return on equity 3.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 36% fair-value upside, at −58%, TIAOF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.59Fair Value $3.46Bull $4.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1512 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Spin-off in 2024: revenue and profit before it include the divested business. Growth is measured afresh from 2024.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+10.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.0% vs 14.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+3.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+2.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +1.5% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Very negative
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score48 · Below median
Fair Value upside−63.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)3.1% · Below median
Return on assets2.1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)0.9% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth1.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.6% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.62× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)41.4× · Priciest 25%
P/B1.24× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (TTM)1.09× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF17.6× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA5.7× · Cheaper than median
PEG6.65× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 42
FUTURE (revenue growth)7· sector 22
PAST (return on equity)12· sector 34
HEALTH (low debt)69· sector 87
DIVIDEND (yield)32· sector 71
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telecom Italia S.p.A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TIAOF
Frequently asked questions
Is Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.46 versus a price of $8.28, about −58% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TIAOF?
Our model-based fair value for Telecom Italia S.p.A is $3.46 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.28.
What is the quality score of TIAOF?
Telecom Italia S.p.A has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.46 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $4.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telecom Italia S.p.A stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.46, about −58% upside versus a price of $8.28 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.59, optimistic scenario $4.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Telecom Italia S.p.A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €13.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Telecom Italia S.p.A pay a dividend?
Telecom Italia S.p.A currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.60% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telecom Italia S.p.A would have to grow free cash flow by +3.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -2.8 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TIAOF use?
Our models discount Telecom Italia S.p.A at 8.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.77, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telecom Italia S.p.A that is +3.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telecom Italia S.p.A grew -2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +3.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.1 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telecom Italia S.p.A (+3.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 11.13 %: that much free cash flow Telecom Italia S.p.A produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telecom Italia S.p.A it is $3.46 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $8.28. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telecom Italia S.p.A stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, TIAOF trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.28, fair value $3.46, a gap of about −58% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TIAOF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.28); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.46). For Telecom Italia S.p.A the two are $4.82 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telecom Italia S.p.A worth?
The market values Telecom Italia S.p.A at about $17.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $8.28; our models calculate a fair value of $3.46 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TIAOF?
Our models span a range for Telecom Italia S.p.A: cautious scenario $2.59, base $3.46, optimistic $4.32 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $8.28). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TIAOF?
Telecom Italia S.p.A trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.4 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.46 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 6.6, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 5.7.
What is the PEG ratio of TIAOF?
The PEG ratio of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 6.65 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telecom Italia S.p.A (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 3.1%, debt of 0.62 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TIAOF from its 52-week high?
Telecom Italia S.p.A trades at $8.28, about 7% below its 52-week high of $8.86 and 48% above the low of $5.61 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.46 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telecom Italia S.p.A?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telecom Italia S.p.A stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $8.28, calculated fair value $3.46 (−58%), Quality Score 48/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TIAOF calculated?
We run Telecom Italia S.p.A through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.46, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Telecom Italia S.p.A itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $8.28. Our model-based fair value is $3.46, about −58% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telecom Italia S.p.A right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.32). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Telecom Italia S.p.A
How large is the market capitalisation of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The market capitalisation of Telecom Italia S.p.A is $17.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 0.90 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Earnings per share at Telecom Italia S.p.A are $0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The dividend yield of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 1.6% (payout 66.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The net margin of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 2.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 3.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
The operating margin of Telecom Italia S.p.A is 5.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Revenue at Telecom Italia S.p.A is growing +1.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −4.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF)?
Earnings per share at Telecom Italia S.p.A are growing −33.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telecom Italia S.p.A (TIAOF) carry?
The net debt of Telecom Italia S.p.A is €11.7B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 3, 2026