Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thien Long Group Corp stock VND 47,100, price VND 54,500, that is 13.6% below the price, quality 59 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 17,834 VND – 56,900 VND · fair‑value band 27,719 VND – 72,550 VND · the 54,500 VND price screens above the 47,100 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Thien Long Group Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and trades in stationery products under Bizner, FlexOffice, Colokit, Diem 10, and TL brands in Vietnam and internationally.
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The company provides ballpoint, fountain, and rollerball pens, as well as pencils; art supplies, such as colored crayons, oil pastels, colored plastic crayons, colored pencils, colored fiber pens, watercolors, modelling doughs, and coloring books; writing instruments and office supplies, including gel pens, fine liners, papers, file covers, tapes, pastes, and other products; and school supplies comprising boards, chalks, rulers, compasses, erasers, scissors, and notebooks.
It also offers classroom equipment, plastic teaching instruments, plastic household appliances, stamps printing, tampo printing, flexo printing, and printing and pressing on products. Thien Long Group Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) currently trades at 54,500 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 47,100 VND, 14% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 83,475 VND per share, and 10 of the 26 models we run sit above the 54,500 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 17,903 VND, and 16 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 27,719 VND (bear) to 72,550 VND (bull), the price of 54,500 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Thien Long Group Corp reported revenue of 4.2T VND in FY2025 versus 2.7T VND in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 446B VND in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3T VND (≈ $206M) Micro · P/E ratio 15.2 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) 3,579 VND · Dividend yield 6.6% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 18.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 29% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −13% fair-value upside, at −14%, TLG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear27,719 VNDFair Value 47,100 VNDBull72,550 VND
Price 54,500 VND · Downside -13.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+12.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)6.6%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+42.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Business Equipment & Supplies · 76 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside−13.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)18.4% · Top 25%
Return on assets12.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)10.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)19.2% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)8.6% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thien Long Group Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLG
Frequently asked questions
Is Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 47,100 VND versus a price of 54,500 VND, about 14% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLG?
Our model-based fair value for Thien Long Group Corp is 47,100 VND (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54,500 VND.
What is the quality score of TLG?
Thien Long Group Corp has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 47,100 VND (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 27,719 VND, optimistic scenario 72,550 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thien Long Group Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 47,100 VND, about 14% lower versus a price of 54,500 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 27,719 VND, optimistic scenario 72,550 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Thien Long Group Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.5T VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Thien Long Group Corp pay a dividend?
Thien Long Group Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 6.59% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Thien Long Group Corp pays a dividend of 3,591 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.6%. The last ex-dividend date was Jul 14, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2010. The payout ratio is 109% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 100%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.27 times. Our assessment: Pays more than it earns. The company pays out more in dividends than it earns, and free cash flow clearly does not cover the dividend either. It may need to be cut unless profits recover.
What growth is priced into Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thien Long Group Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +42.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLG use?
Our models discount Thien Long Group Corp at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thien Long Group Corp that is +42.9 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thien Long Group Corp grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +42.9 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thien Long Group Corp (+42.9 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.80 %: that much free cash flow Thien Long Group Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thien Long Group Corp it is 47,100 VND per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 54,500 VND. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Thien Long Group Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TLG trades above its calculated fair value: price 54,500 VND, fair value 47,100 VND, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54,500 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (47,100 VND). For Thien Long Group Corp the two are 7,400 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thien Long Group Corp worth?
The market values Thien Long Group Corp at about 5.3T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 54,500 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 47,100 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLG?
Our models span a range for Thien Long Group Corp: cautious scenario 27,719 VND, base 47,100 VND, optimistic 72,550 VND per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 54,500 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLG?
Thien Long Group Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.2 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 47,100 VND is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 12.8 (reported for FY2025: 11.8). Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thien Long Group Corp (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 18.4%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLG from its 52-week high?
Thien Long Group Corp trades at 54,500 VND, about 4% below its 52-week high of 56,900 VND and 29% above the low of 42,172 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 47,100 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thien Long Group Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GRG Banking Equipment Co, Crane NXT, Co, Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc, XGD Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thien Long Group Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 54,500 VND, calculated fair value 47,100 VND (−14%), Quality Score 59/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLG calculated?
We run Thien Long Group Corp through 26 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 47,100 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0% above its aggregate fair value. Thien Long Group Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 54,500 VND. Our model-based fair value is 47,100 VND, about 14% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thien Long Group Corp right now?
The model range is unusually wide (27,719 VND to 72,550 VND). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Thien Long Group Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The market capitalisation of Thien Long Group Corp is 5.3T VND (≈ $206M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thien Long Group Corp is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Earnings per share at Thien Long Group Corp are 3,579 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The dividend yield of Thien Long Group Corp is 6.6% (payout 109%, on adjusted earnings, reported 100%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The net margin of Thien Long Group Corp is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thien Long Group Corp is 18.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thien Long Group Corp is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The operating margin of Thien Long Group Corp is 19.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Revenue at Thien Long Group Corp is growing +8.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Earnings per share at Thien Long Group Corp are growing −11.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) carry?
The net debt of Thien Long Group Corp is 40.4B VND (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 8, 2026