Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Thien Long Group Corp VND 40,434, price VND 54,700, upside -26.1%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 17,008 VND – 56,393 VND · fair‑value band 24,547 VND – 61,243 VND · the 54,700 VND price screens above the 40,434 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Thien Long Group Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and trades in stationery products under Bizner, FlexOffice, Colokit, Diem 10, and TL brands in Vietnam and internationally.
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Thien Long Group Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, manufactures and trades in stationery products under Bizner, FlexOffice, Colokit, Diem 10, and TL brands in Vietnam and internationally. The company provides ballpoint, fountain, and rollerball pens, as well as pencils; art supplies, such as colored crayons, oil pastels, colored plastic crayons, colored pencils, colored fiber pens, watercolors, modelling doughs, and coloring books; writing instruments and office supplies, including gel pens, fine liners, papers, file covers, tapes, pastes, and other products; and school supplies comprising boards, chalks, rulers, compasses, erasers, scissors, and notebooks. It also offers classroom equipment, plastic teaching instruments, plastic household appliances, stamps printing, tampo printing, flexo printing, and printing and pressing on products. Thien Long Group Corporation was founded in 1981 and is headquartered in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
Stock analysis
Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) currently trades at 54,700 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 40,434 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 35.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 69,842 VND per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the 54,700 VND price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 17,554 VND, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: 24,547 VND (bear) to 61,243 VND (bull), the price of 54,700 VND sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Thien Long Group Corp reported revenue of 4.2T VND in FY2025 versus 2.7T VND in FY2021, a compound +11.8%/yr. Reported net income was 446B VND in FY2025, compounding +12.7%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.3T VND · P/E ratio 12.8 · P/S ratio 1.37 · EPS (TTM) 4,274 VND · Dividend yield 8.2% · Net margin 10.7% · Return on equity 20.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −50% fair-value upside, at −26%, TLG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 24,547 VNDFair Value 40,434 VNDBull 61,243 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.2%
’19
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’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+13.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+5.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)8.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 12%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+43.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Vietnam: IMF forecast 4.1% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +37.4% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Business Equipment & Supplies · 75 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−2% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)20% · Top 25%
Return on assets10% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)11% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)8.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.00× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Business Equipment & Supplies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.8× · Cheaper than median
P/B2.09× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM)1.21× · Pricier than median
P/FCF0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA7.5× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 19
PAST (return on equity)80· sector 20
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thien Long Group Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLG
Frequently asked questions
Is Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 40,434 VND versus a price of 54,700 VND, about −26% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TLG?
Our model-based fair value for Thien Long Group Corp is 40,434 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 54,700 VND.
What is the quality score of TLG?
Thien Long Group Corp has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 40,434 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario 24,547 VND, optimistic scenario 61,243 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thien Long Group Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 40,434 VND, about −26% upside versus a price of 54,700 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 24,547 VND, optimistic scenario 61,243 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Thien Long Group Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 4.4T VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thien Long Group Corp pay a dividend?
Thien Long Group Corp currently shows a dividend yield of about 8.23% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Thien Long Group Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +43.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 14.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLG use?
Our models discount Thien Long Group Corp at 14.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for Vietnam. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Thien Long Group Corp that is +43.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (14.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Thien Long Group Corp grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +43.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Thien Long Group Corp (+43.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.79 %: that much free cash flow Thien Long Group Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (14.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thien Long Group Corp it is 40,434 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 54,700 VND. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thien Long Group Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TLG trades above its calculated fair value: price 54,700 VND, fair value 40,434 VND, a gap of about −26% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (54,700 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (40,434 VND). For Thien Long Group Corp the two are 14,266 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thien Long Group Corp worth?
The market values Thien Long Group Corp at about 5.3T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 54,700 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 40,434 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLG?
Our models span a range for Thien Long Group Corp: cautious scenario 24,547 VND, base 40,434 VND, optimistic 61,243 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 54,700 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLG?
Thien Long Group Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 40,434 VND is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.1, P/S 1.2, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thien Long Group Corp (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 20.0%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLG from its 52-week high?
Thien Long Group Corp trades at 54,700 VND, about 3% below its 52-week high of 56,393 VND and 30% above the low of 41,927 VND (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 40,434 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thien Long Group Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GRG Banking Equipment Co, Shanghai M&G Stationery Inc, XGD Inc, DOMS Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thien Long Group Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 54,700 VND, calculated fair value 40,434 VND (−26%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLG calculated?
We run Thien Long Group Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 40,434 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Thien Long Group Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 54,700 VND. Our model-based fair value is 40,434 VND, about −26% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thien Long Group Corp right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (24,547 VND to 61,243 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Thien Long Group Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The market capitalisation of Thien Long Group Corp is 5.3T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thien Long Group Corp is 1.37 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Earnings per share at Thien Long Group Corp are 4,274 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The dividend yield of Thien Long Group Corp is 8.2% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The net margin of Thien Long Group Corp is 10.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thien Long Group Corp is 20.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thien Long Group Corp is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
The operating margin of Thien Long Group Corp is 14.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Revenue at Thien Long Group Corp is growing +25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thien Long Group Corp (TLG)?
Earnings per share at Thien Long Group Corp are growing +40.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Thien Long Group Corp (TLG) carry?
The net debt of Thien Long Group Corp is 40.4B VND (fiscal year 2023, ≈ 0.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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