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Data-driven stock valuation

TLKM fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what TLKM is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Communication Services · ID · Market cap 249T IDR (≈ $24.9B) · ISIN ID1000129000

At a glance

T TLKM TLKM · JK
Price2,610 IDR
Fair Value3,898 IDR
Upside+49.3%
Quality63/100

A solid business, trading 33% below our fair value of 3,898 IDR.

As of Aug 13, 2026, the fair value of TLKM is 3,898 IDR per share against a price of 2,610 IDR, so the fair value sits 49% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.3% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
Evidence: Medium Range 2,923 IDR to 4,872 IDR

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price −3.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (2,923 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

3,682 IDR 1,963 IDR Fair Value 3,898 IDR Mar 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,963 IDR – 3,682 IDR · fair‑value band 2,923 IDR – 4,872 IDR · the 2,610 IDR price screens below the 3,898 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

TLKM (TLKM) currently trades at 2,610 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,898 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 33.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 5,978 IDR per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 2,610 IDR price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 887.13 IDR, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, TLKM generated revenue of 147T IDR at a net margin of 11.3%. Revenue grew 1.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.2%. Net debt stands at 40.5T IDR. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Scenario range: 2,923 IDR (bear) to 4,872 IDR (bull), the price of 2,610 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 29% fair-value upside, at 49%, TLKM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (112.67 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 5,075 IDR 8,081 IDR 12,918 IDR 79
Growth DCF 5,176 IDR 7,851 IDR 11,894 IDR 78
Owner Earnings 4,075 IDR 6,479 IDR 10,347 IDR 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 5,075 IDR 8,081 IDR 12,918 IDR 79
Owner Earnings 4,075 IDR 6,479 IDR 10,347 IDR 75
5Y Revenue Exit 3,739 IDR 5,686 IDR 8,139 IDR 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 5,668 IDR 9,308 IDR 13,558 IDR 74
5Y P/E Exit 3,488 IDR 5,215 IDR 7,004 IDR 71
10Y Revenue Exit 4,059 IDR 5,978 IDR 8,508 IDR 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 5,419 IDR 8,556 IDR 12,753 IDR 68
10Y P/E Exit 3,995 IDR 5,643 IDR 7,618 IDR 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1,205 IDR 3,804 IDR 5,067 IDR 64
Lynch FV 834.62 IDR 1,192 IDR 1,550 IDR 61
PEG = 1.0 834.62 IDR 1,192 IDR 1,550 IDR 57
EPV 2,878 IDR 3,371 IDR 3,810 IDR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2,051 IDR 4,478 IDR 7,535 IDR 65
DDM Multi-Stage 2,051 IDR 3,481 IDR 4,667 IDR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2,923 IDR 3,898 IDR 4,872 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 2,259 IDR 3,012 IDR 3,765 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 2,259 IDR 3,012 IDR 3,765 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 4,232 IDR 5,615 IDR 6,998 IDR 66
EV/EBITDA 6,674 IDR 8,870 IDR 11,067 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 3,206 IDR 4,544 IDR 5,883 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 662.03 IDR 887.13 IDR 1,324 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 5,176 IDR 7,851 IDR 11,894 IDR 78
Rev-Margin DCF 3,739 IDR 5,717 IDR 8,012 IDR 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1,294 IDR 1,558 IDR 2,836 IDR 73
ROIC Compounder 3,095 IDR 3,934 IDR 4,923 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2,417 IDR 3,453 IDR 4,489 IDR 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (5,978 IDR) versus Asset-Based (887.13 IDR). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 15.9
P/S ratio 1.89 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) 164.35 IDR price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.9
Net margin 11.9% FY2025
Return on equity 14.2% TTM
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 24.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) 147T IDR TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +1.5% 3y avg −0.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −21.6%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow 41.0T IDR FY2025
Net debt 40.5T IDR FY2025 · ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 55
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 30
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 27
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide. The company operates through Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale and International Business, and Other segments.

Full company description

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide. The company operates through Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale and International Business, and Other segments. The Mobile segment offers mobile voice, SMS, mobile broadband, and value added services. The Consumer segment provides fixed wireline, pay TV, and internet services; and other telecommunication services to home customers. The Enterprise segment offers end-to-end solution to corporate and institutions. The Wholesale and International Business segment provides interconnection services, broadband access, information technology services, data, and internet services to other licensed operator and institutions. The Other segment offers digital content products, big data, business-to-business commerce, and financial services to individual and corporate customers. The company also engages in leasing of towers, and provision of digital support and other telecommunication services; provision of consultation service of hardware, software, data center, and internet exchange, as well as multimedia portal services; business management consulting; property development and management; trading service related to telecommunication, information, multimedia technology, entertainment, and investment services; and digital content exchange hub services. The company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Bandung, Indonesia. Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Danantara Asset Management (Persero).

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

TLKM reported revenue of 147T IDR in FY2025 versus 143T IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 17.5T IDR in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
147T IDR
Latest YoY
−2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (29Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y, in IDR) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share−10.2%
Dividend yield0.0%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y −10.2% vs 10Y 1.1%, flattening
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32.2% (2020) → 23.3% (2025) · falling
Worst earnings drop28% (2025) · in IDR
Revenue +0.6%/yr
FY21 143T IDR
FY22 147T IDR
FY23 149T IDR
FY24 150T IDR
FY25 147T IDR
Net income −15.3%/yr
FY21 33.9T IDR
FY22 27.7T IDR
FY23 24.4T IDR
FY24 23.6T IDR
FY25 17.5T IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +3.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.1 %

of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution −0.1 %

EBIT margin −2.0 %
Tax rate +1.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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TLKM · Fair Value
3,898 IDR +33%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TLKM Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLKM

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must TLKM deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years-10.8 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years+1.5 % p.a.
FCF yield on price15.85 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models7.9 %

The price demands less growth than the company recently delivered: even a weaker business would justify the price. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Telecom Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
China Mobile Limited 600941 ¥96.11 ¥109.88 +14%
T-Mobile US, Inc TMUS $181.52 $172.67 −5%
Verizon Communications Inc VZ $50.14 $64.43 +29%
AT&T Inc T $26.01 $43.97 +69%
Bharti Airtel Limited BHARTIARTL ₹1,935 ₹941.48 −51%
Comcast Corporation CMCSA $26.49 $95.42 +260%
China Telecom Corporation 601728 ¥6.43 ¥8.36 +30%
América Móvil, S.A. AMX $23.00 $39.79 +73%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z77 4.53 SGD 3.03 SGD −33%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 627.50 CHF 463.92 −26%

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Frequently asked questions

Is TLKM overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,898 IDR versus a price of 2,610 IDR, about +49% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TLKM?
Our model-based fair value for TLKM is 3,898 IDR (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,610 IDR.
What is the quality score of TLKM?
TLKM has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TLKM?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,898 IDR (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,923 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,872 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TLKM stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,898 IDR, about +49% upside versus a price of 2,610 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,923 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,872 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TLKM?
TLKM reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 147T IDR (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TLKM?
The net profit margin of TLKM is about 11.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 11.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
What growth is priced into TLKM?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TLKM would have to grow free cash flow by -10.8 % per year for ten years (discount rate 7.9 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Aug 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLKM use?
Our models discount TLKM at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.13. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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