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TLKM fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of TLKM IDR 3,898, price IDR 2,470, upside +57.8%, quality 63 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? Yes
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Communication Services · ID · ISIN ID1000129000

T Some data Sep 13, 2026

TLKM

TLKM · JK

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value 3,898 IDR · Strongly undervalued (+58%)
!Quality 63/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +1.5 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 11.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 65/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

3,682 IDR 1,963 IDR Fair Value 3,898 IDR Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1,963 IDR – 3,682 IDR · fair‑value band 2,923 IDR – 4,872 IDR · the 2,470 IDR price screens below the 3,898 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide. The company operates through Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale and International Business, and Other segments.

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Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk provides information and communications technology, and telecommunications network services worldwide. The company operates through Mobile, Consumer, Enterprise, Wholesale and International Business, and Other segments. The Mobile segment offers mobile voice, SMS, mobile broadband, and value added services. The Consumer segment provides fixed wireline, pay TV, and internet services; and other telecommunication services to home customers. The Enterprise segment offers end-to-end solution to corporate and institutions. The Wholesale and International Business segment provides interconnection services, broadband access, information technology services, data, and internet services to other licensed operator and institutions. The Other segment offers digital content products, big data, business-to-business commerce, and financial services to individual and corporate customers. The company also engages in leasing of towers, and provision of digital support and other telecommunication services; provision of consultation service of hardware, software, data center, and internet exchange, as well as multimedia portal services; business management consulting; property development and management; trading service related to telecommunication, information, multimedia technology, entertainment, and investment services; and digital content exchange hub services. The company was founded in 1884 and is headquartered in Bandung, Indonesia. Perusahaan Perseroan (Persero) PT Telekomunikasi Indonesia Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Danantara Asset Management (Persero).

Stock analysis

TLKM (TLKM) currently trades at 2,470 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,898 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 36.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 5,978 IDR per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 2,470 IDR price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 887.13 IDR, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: 2,923 IDR (bear) to 4,872 IDR (bull), the price of 2,470 IDR sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Weak Growth: Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.

TLKM reported revenue of 147T IDR in FY2025 versus 143T IDR in FY2021, a compound +0.6%/yr. Reported net income was 17.5T IDR in FY2025, compounding −15.3%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 245T IDR (≈ $24.5B) · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 1.79 · EPS (TTM) 164.35 IDR · Net margin 11.9% · Return on equity 14.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 14.7% · Operating margin 24.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 25% fair-value upside, at 58%, TLKM screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 2,923 IDR Fair Value 3,898 IDR Bull 4,872 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (119.88 IDR per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF 5,075 IDR 8,081 IDR 12,918 IDR 79
Growth DCF 5,176 IDR 7,851 IDR 11,894 IDR 78
Owner Earnings 4,075 IDR 6,479 IDR 10,347 IDR 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 5,075 IDR 8,081 IDR 12,918 IDR 79
Owner Earnings 4,075 IDR 6,479 IDR 10,347 IDR 75
5Y Revenue Exit 3,739 IDR 5,686 IDR 8,139 IDR 72
5Y EBITDA Exit 5,668 IDR 9,308 IDR 13,558 IDR 74
5Y P/E Exit 3,488 IDR 5,215 IDR 7,004 IDR 71
10Y Revenue Exit 4,059 IDR 5,978 IDR 8,508 IDR 67
10Y EBITDA Exit 5,419 IDR 8,556 IDR 12,753 IDR 68
10Y P/E Exit 3,995 IDR 5,643 IDR 7,618 IDR 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 1,205 IDR 3,804 IDR 5,067 IDR 64
Lynch FV 834.62 IDR 1,192 IDR 1,550 IDR 61
PEG = 1.0 834.62 IDR 1,192 IDR 1,550 IDR 57
EPV 2,878 IDR 3,371 IDR 3,810 IDR 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 2,051 IDR 4,478 IDR 7,535 IDR 65
DDM Multi-Stage 2,051 IDR 3,481 IDR 4,667 IDR 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple 2,923 IDR 3,898 IDR 4,872 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 2,259 IDR 3,012 IDR 3,765 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 2,259 IDR 3,012 IDR 3,765 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 4,232 IDR 5,615 IDR 6,998 IDR 66
EV/EBITDA 6,674 IDR 8,870 IDR 11,067 IDR 67
EV/Revenue 3,206 IDR 4,544 IDR 5,883 IDR 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 662.03 IDR 887.13 IDR 1,324 IDR 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 5,176 IDR 7,851 IDR 11,894 IDR 78
Rev-Margin DCF 3,739 IDR 5,717 IDR 8,012 IDR 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income 1,294 IDR 1,558 IDR 2,836 IDR 73
ROIC Compounder 3,095 IDR 3,934 IDR 4,923 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 2,417 IDR 3,453 IDR 4,489 IDR 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 63/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 87
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 60
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 72
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 57
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 29
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 17
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Growth has flattened: the last year, three and five years all grew more slowly than the long-term average.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.5%
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.7%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−10.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10% vs 1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.32% → 23%

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.8%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+0.3%
Projected 2028 (sales)+0.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+0.8%
Projected 2030 (sales)+1.0%

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América Móvil, S.A. AMX $22.98 $39.05 +70%
Singapore Telecommunications Limited Z77 4.50 SGD 1.91 SGD −58%
Swisscom AG SCMN CHF 673.00 CHF 463.92 −31%
Telstra Group TLS A$4.87 A$3.31 −32%

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TLKM Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLKM

Frequently asked questions

Is TLKM overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,898 IDR versus a price of 2,470 IDR, about +58% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TLKM?
Our model-based fair value for TLKM is 3,898 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,470 IDR.
What is the quality score of TLKM?
TLKM has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TLKM?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,898 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,923 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,872 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TLKM stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,898 IDR, about +58% upside versus a price of 2,470 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,923 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,872 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TLKM?
TLKM reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 147T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into TLKM?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TLKM would have to grow free cash flow by -10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.0 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.5 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLKM use?
Our models discount TLKM at 10.0 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.13, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TLKM that is -10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.0 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TLKM delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TLKM grew +1.5 % a year. The price currently implies -10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TLKM growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TLKM (-10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TLKM?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 16.74 %: that much free cash flow TLKM produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.0 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TLKM?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TLKM it is 3,898 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 2,470 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TLKM stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, TLKM trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,470 IDR, fair value 3,898 IDR, a gap of about +58% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLKM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,470 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,898 IDR). For TLKM the two are 1,428 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TLKM worth?
The market values TLKM at about 245T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 2,470 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 3,898 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLKM?
Our models span a range for TLKM: cautious scenario 2,923 IDR, base 3,898 IDR, optimistic 4,872 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 2,470 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is TLKM from its 52-week high?
TLKM trades at 2,470 IDR, about 38% below its 52-week high of 3,990 IDR and 5% above the low of 2,350 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,898 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TLKM?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TLKM stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 2,470 IDR, calculated fair value 3,898 IDR (+58%), Quality Score 63/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLKM calculated?
We run TLKM through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,898 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.0 % above its aggregate fair value. TLKM currently trades 58 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TLKM?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was 2,470 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 3,898 IDR, about +58% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TLKM right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case (2,923 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Where does the earnings growth of TLKM come from?
Earnings per share at TLKM grew +3.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.1 %, EBIT margin −2.0 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of TLKM

How large is the market capitalisation of TLKM?
The market capitalisation of TLKM is 245T IDR (≈ $24.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/E ratio of TLKM?
The price-to-earnings ratio of TLKM is 15.0. Price to earnings: how many years of current profit you pay for the stock. A P/E of 10 means ten years of profit.
What is the P/S ratio of TLKM?
The price-to-sales ratio of TLKM is 1.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TLKM?
Earnings per share at TLKM are 164.35 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of TLKM?
The net margin of TLKM is 11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TLKM?
The return on equity (ROE) of TLKM is 14.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TLKM?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TLKM is 14.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TLKM?
The operating margin of TLKM is 24.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TLKM?
Revenue at TLKM is growing +1.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TLKM?
Earnings per share at TLKM are growing −21.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does TLKM carry?
The net debt of TLKM is 40.5T IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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