Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 29, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Telstra Group Ltd stock A$4.44, price A$4.91, upside -9.6%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range A$3.01 – A$5.43 · fair‑value band A$3.00 – A$5.56 · the A$4.91 price screens above the A$4.44 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Oct 28, 2026.
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Telstra Group Limited provides telecommunications and information services in Australia and internationally.
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The company operates through six segments: Telstra Consumer; Telstra Business; Telstra Enterprise Australia; Telstra International; Networks, IT and Products; and Telstra InfraCo. It offers telecommunication and technology products and services to consumer and small and medium business customers using mobile and fixed network technologies, as well as operates call centers, retail stores, distribution network, digital channels, distribution systems, and Telstra Plus customer loyalty program.
The company also provides network capacity and management, unified communications, cloud, security, industry solutions, integrated and monitoring services to government and large enterprise and business customers; wholesale services, including voice and data; and telecommunication products and services to other carriers, carriage service providers, and internet service providers, as well as builds and manages digital platforms.
In addition, it operates the fixed passive network infrastructure, including data centers, exchanges, poles, ducts, pits and pipes, and fiber network; provides wholesale customers with access to network infrastructure; offers long-term access to components of infrastructure under the infrastructure services agreement; and operates the passive and physical mobile tower.
The company was formerly known as Telstra Corporation Limited and changed its name to Telstra Group Limited in November 2022. Telstra Group Limited was founded in 1901 and is based in Melbourne, Australia.
Stock analysis
Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) currently trades at A$4.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$4.44, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 10.6%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of A$4.56 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the A$4.91 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at A$1.62, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: A$3.00 (bear) to A$5.56 (bull), the price of A$4.91 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Telstra Group Ltd reported revenue of A$22.9B in FY2026 versus A$21.3B in FY2022, a compound +1.9%/yr. Reported net income was A$2.2B in FY2026, compounding +7.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap A$55.0B (≈ $38.8B) Large · P/E ratio 24.6 · P/S ratio 2.40 · EPS (TTM) A$0.2000 · Dividend yield 4.3% · Net margin 9.8% · Return on equity 15.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 57 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 35% fair-value upside, at −10%, TLS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
BearA$3.00Fair Value A$4.44BullA$5.56
Price A$4.91 · Upside -9.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −1.2% a year
Revenue growth 32 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +9.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +5.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 5.5% / −5.3%
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 19%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2021 (starting value 0.15 per share, median 0.31 in 2016 to 2019). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.7% a year for the price and −1.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (96 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Telstra's fibre infrastructure build supports cloud and AI connections as its main strength, yet competition and thin public data remain the central weak point for long-term durability.
Main risk: Low-cost MVNOs such as ALDI Mobile and Boost Mobile along with fixed challengers like Aussie Broadband could continue taking market share from Telstra's mobile and broadband services and force lower prices or margins on core connectivity products.
Bull case: Telstra could leverage its fibre routes and network scale to capture growing enterprise demand from cloud and AI workloads while using its own AI tools to cut operating costs faster than rivals and defend margins.
Bear case: If low-cost rivals and regulatory spectrum costs materialise together, Telstra's core mobile and fixed margins could compress materially, slowing the rollout of new capacity and limiting cash flows from its infrastructure investments.
Telstra is bringing its longest Aura fibre route online between Perth and Sydney to tap growing demand from cloud and AI customers. This forms part of a multi-year infrastructure build that already carries capacity for major tech firms. Will the new high-margin connections generate cash flows that comfortably exceed the capital still needed to finish the network?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 237 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−9.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)15.4% · Above median
Return on assets5.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)9.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)20.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)−2.0% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)4.3% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.98× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telstra Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TLS.AU
Frequently asked questions
Is Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$4.44 versus a price of A$4.91, about −10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TLS?
Our model-based fair value for Telstra Group Ltd is A$4.44 (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$4.91.
What is the quality score of TLS?
Telstra Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$4.44 (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$3.00, optimistic scenario A$5.56. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telstra Group Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$4.44, about −10% upside versus a price of A$4.91 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario A$3.00, optimistic scenario A$5.56. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Telstra Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$22.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does Telstra Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Telstra Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of 4.28% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telstra Group Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.3 % per year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TLS use?
Our models discount Telstra Group Ltd at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.12, country premium for Australia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telstra Group Ltd that is +1.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telstra Group Ltd grew +1.3 % a year. The price currently implies +1.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telstra Group Ltd (+1.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.61 %: that much free cash flow Telstra Group Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telstra Group Ltd it is A$4.44 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of A$4.91. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telstra Group Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, TLS trades above its calculated fair value: price A$4.91, fair value A$4.44, a gap of about −10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TLS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$4.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$4.44). For Telstra Group Ltd the two are A$0.4700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telstra Group Ltd worth?
The market values Telstra Group Ltd at about A$55.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is A$4.91; our models calculate a fair value of A$4.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TLS?
Our models span a range for Telstra Group Ltd: cautious scenario A$3.00, base A$4.44, optimistic A$5.56 per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price A$4.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TLS?
Telstra Group Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of A$4.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.1, P/B 4.4, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
What is the PEG ratio of TLS?
The PEG ratio of Telstra Group Ltd is 3.06 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telstra Group Ltd (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 15.4%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TLS from its 52-week high?
Telstra Group Ltd trades at A$4.91, about 10% below its 52-week high of A$5.43 and 9% above the low of A$4.52 (as of Oct 29, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$4.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telstra Group Ltd?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, Verizon Communications Inc, T-Mobile US, Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telstra Group Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price A$4.91, calculated fair value A$4.44 (−10%), Quality Score 63/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TLS calculated?
We run Telstra Group Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$4.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. Telstra Group Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The closing price on Oct 29, 2026 was A$4.91. Our model-based fair value is A$4.44, about −10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telstra Group Ltd right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (A$3.00 to A$5.56) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) come from?
Earnings per share at Telstra Group Ltd grew −8.2 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −0.7 %, EBIT margin −3.0 %, tax rate −0.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Telstra Group Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The market capitalisation of Telstra Group Ltd is A$55.0B (≈ $38.8B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telstra Group Ltd is 2.40 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Earnings per share at Telstra Group Ltd are A$0.2000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The dividend yield of Telstra Group Ltd is 4.3% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The net margin of Telstra Group Ltd is 9.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telstra Group Ltd is 15.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telstra Group Ltd is 7.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
The operating margin of Telstra Group Ltd is 20.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Revenue at Telstra Group Ltd is growing −2.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telstra Group Ltd (TLS)?
Earnings per share at Telstra Group Ltd are growing +0.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telstra Group Ltd (TLS) carry?
The net debt of Telstra Group Ltd is A$17.5B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 4.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 28, 2026