Check 35,000+ stocks against 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group $17.27, price $7.74, upside +123.1%, quality 71 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Fair value above price? Yes
Good quality? Yes
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Communication Services · US · ISIN US88034P1093

Broad data Oct 2, 2026

Tencent Music Entertainment Group

TME · US

Clearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.

✓Fair value $17.27 · Strongly undervalued (+123.1%)

✓Quality 71/100

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +2.4 %/yr)

✓Highly profitable · 26.5% net margin (TTM)

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

✓2.9% dividend yield · Well covered

✓Ranks above peers (13/15)

✓Wide moat 71/100

!Insider activity 40/100

26 models, one by oneBear $11.06 to bull $24.86 Growth analysisrevenue history, year by year Quality 71/100 in detail37 factors, each one shown Compared with its peersrank on every measure, side by side

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.97 – $25.67 · fair‑value band $11.06 – $24.86 · the $7.74 price screens below the $17.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates online music entertainment platforms that provides music streaming, online karaoke, and live streaming services in the People's Republic of China. It provides QQ Music, Kugou Music, and Kuwo Music that enable users to discover, enjoy, and share music in personalized ways; long-form audio content, including audiobooks, podcasts and talk shows, as well as music-oriented video content comprising music videos, live performances, and short videos; and WeSing, which enables users to sing along from its library of karaoke songs and share their performances in audio or video formats with friends. The company also delivers music-centric live streaming services primarily through the Live Streaming tab on QQ Music, Kugou Music, Kuwo Music, WeSing, Kugou Live, and Kuwo Live that provides an interactive online stage for performers and users to showcase their talent and engage with audience base; and Lazy Audio, an audio platform. In addition, it sells artist-related merchandise, such as branded apparel, posters and art prints, and accessories; other music services, such as content licensing, sales of digital albums, sales of customized artist-related merchandises, live performances and concerts, and artist management services; and music subscriptions, as well as offers advertising services across its social entertainment platforms. The company is headquartered in Shenzhen, China. Tencent Music Entertainment Group operates as a subsidiary of Tencent Holdings Limited.

Stock analysis

Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) currently trades at $7.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.27, implying the stock looks roughly 55.2% undervalued today.

Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $19.12 per share, and 23 of the 26 models we run sit above the $7.74 price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $2.98, and 3 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Scenario range: $11.06 (bear) to $24.86 (bull), the price of $7.74 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.

Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported revenue of 32.9B CNY in FY2025 versus 31.2B CNY in FY2021, a compound +1.3%/yr. Reported net income was 11.1B CNY in FY2025, compounding +38.2%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $13.4B · P/E ratio 9.8 · P/S ratio 3.28 · EPS (TTM) $0.8400 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 33.6% · Return on equity 12.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 66% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 123%, TME screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $11.06 Fair Value $17.27 Bull $24.86

Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.

Highest evidence

FCF DCF $12.35 $21.01 $35.51 77

Growth DCF $12.35 $20.53 $34.01 75

Owner Earnings $15.01 $25.62 $43.37 73

All 26 models by family

DCF Models

FCF DCF $12.35 $21.01 $35.51 77

Owner Earnings $15.01 $25.62 $43.37 73

5Y Revenue Exit $8.74 $13.75 $20.31 71

5Y EBITDA Exit $10.24 $16.77 $24.70 73

5Y P/E Exit $15.11 $26.52 $39.29 69

10Y Revenue Exit $9.66 $14.75 $22.04 65

10Y EBITDA Exit $10.86 $16.93 $25.62 67

10Y P/E Exit $14.05 $23.95 $37.49 62

Earnings-Based

Graham-Dodd $7.22 $30.17 $41.15 61

Lynch FV $7.64 $10.92 $14.19 58

PEG = 1.0 $7.64 $10.92 $14.19 55

EPV $7.63 $8.82 $9.86 72

Dividend Discount

Gordon GGM $1.70 $3.53 $5.60 64

DDM Multi-Stage $1.70 $2.98 $3.71 64

Multiples

P/E Multiple $17.52 $23.36 $29.20 61

P/S Multiple $8.29 $11.06 $13.82 56

P/B Multiple $13.54 $18.05 $22.56 53

EV/EBIT $11.70 $15.44 $19.18 65

EV/EBITDA $10.05 $13.24 $16.43 66

EV/Revenue $7.12 $9.96 $12.80 52

Asset-Based

NCAV (Graham) $3.86 $5.17 $7.72 52

Growth DCF

Growth DCF $12.35 $20.53 $34.01 75

Rev-Margin DCF $8.74 $13.74 $20.03 71

Economic Profit

Residual Income $7.49 $9.55 $14.77 73

ROIC Compounder $7.63 $9.88 $12.95 71

Growth Earnings

Growth-Adj P/E $13.39 $19.12 $24.86 66

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 71/100

Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 23

Profitability 53

Margins and returns on capital today

Quality Growth 75

Are margins and returns improving?

Cashflow 82

Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit

Fin. Strength 71

Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk

Investment 44

Disciplined investing over empire-building

Low Volatility 52

Calm price path (market factor)

Momentum 18

Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)

52W Momentum 0

Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)

Net Issuance 92

Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 68/100

Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.

Revenue growth 1 year

+15.8%

Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+5.1%

Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+2.4%

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.

+25.2%

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’21

’22

’23

’24

’25

What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.

+36.0%

Earnings growth per share plus dividend.

Earnings per share, growth per year+33.1%

Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%

Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.5% vs 64.1%, slowing

Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 30%

2025 sits 129% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.

Start year 2020 (pandemic)

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Earlier news

News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation. Neutral

Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.

Tencent Music (TME) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Cut As Analysts Trim Growth Views Yahoo Finance · Sep 20, 2026
Tencent Music Entertainment Group Announces Closing of US$1,000 Million Notes Offering Yahoo Finance · Sep 10, 2026

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Content & Information · 135 stocks

Beats the industry median on 13/15 measures

Overall it ranks above its industry peers.

Valuation

Quality Score 71 · Top 25%

Fair Value upside +131.0% · Top 25%

Profitability

Return on equity (TTM) 12.0% · Above median

Return on assets 6.3% · Top 25%

Net margin (TTM) 26.5% · Top 25%

Operating margin (TTM) 30.4% · Top 25%

Growth and dividend

Revenue growth 7.3% · Above median

Dividend yield (TTM) 2.9% · Above median

Balance sheet

Debt / equity 0.04× · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Content & Information median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 9.8× · Cheaper than median

P/B 1.12× · Cheaper than median

P/S (TTM) 2.69× · Pricier than median

P/FCF 9.1× · Cheaper than median

EV/EBITDA 7.6× · Cheaper than median

PEG 1.10× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

This stock

Sector peers

VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 46

FUTURE (revenue growth)37 · sector 28

PAST (return on equity)48 · sector 17

HEALTH (low debt)98 · sector 98

DIVIDEND (yield)59 · sector 39

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Tencent Music Entertainment Group · Fair Value
$17.27 +55%Fair Value
Calculator →

<a href="https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TME" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener" style="display:inline-flex;align-items:center;gap:12px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:system-ui,-apple-system,Segoe UI,Roboto,sans-serif;text-decoration:none;background:#0f1814;color:#eaf2ed;border:1px solid #2a3a30;border-radius:12px;padding:12px 16px;max-width:360px"><span style="line-height:1.35"><span style="font-size:12px;color:#9fb0a8">Tencent Music Entertainment Group · Fair Value</span><br><b style="font-size:20px">$17.27</b> <span style="color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;font-size:14px">+55%</span></span><span style="font-size:11px;color:var(--fvc-g-mitte);font-weight:700;margin-left:auto;text-align:right;line-height:1.3">Fair&nbsp;Value<br>Calculator&nbsp;→</span></a>

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tencent Music Entertainment Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TME

Frequently asked questions

Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) overvalued or undervalued?

As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $17.27 versus a price of $7.74, about +123% upside (undervalued).

What is the fair value of TME?

Our model-based fair value for Tencent Music Entertainment Group is $17.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.74.

What is the quality score of TME?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group has a Quality Score of 71/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.

What is the price target for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Our model-based price target is the fair value of $17.27 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $11.06, optimistic scenario $24.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.

What is the Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock forecast for 2026?

Our models put fair value at $17.27, about +123% upside versus a price of $7.74 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $11.06, optimistic scenario $24.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.

What is the revenue of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 33.4B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).

Does Tencent Music Entertainment Group pay a dividend?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.93% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 2, 2026).

What is the intrinsic value of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tencent Music Entertainment Group it is $17.27 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $7.74. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).

Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?

As of Oct 2, 2026, TME trades below its calculated fair value: price $7.74, fair value $17.27, a gap of about +123% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.

Is fair value the same as the market price of TME?

No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.74); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($17.27). For Tencent Music Entertainment Group the two are $9.53 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.

How much is Tencent Music Entertainment Group worth?

The market values Tencent Music Entertainment Group at about $13.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $7.74; our models calculate a fair value of $17.27 per share.

What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TME?

Our models span a range for Tencent Music Entertainment Group: cautious scenario $11.06, base $17.27, optimistic $24.86 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $7.74). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.

What is the P/E ratio of TME?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.8 (as of Oct 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $17.27 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 8.4 (reported for FY2025: 7.3). Other multiples: PEG 1.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 2.7, EV/EBITDA 7.6.

What is the PEG ratio of TME?

The PEG ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 1.10 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.

How solid is the balance sheet of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Balance-sheet figures for Tencent Music Entertainment Group (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity 12.0%, debt of 0.04 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 71/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.

How far is TME from its 52-week high?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group trades at $7.74, about 66% below its 52-week high of $23.09 and at the low of $7.74 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $17.27 is for.

Which stocks are comparable to Tencent Music Entertainment Group?

From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Alphabet Inc, Meta Platforms, Inc, Tencent Holdings, Spotify Technology S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.

Is Tencent Music Entertainment Group stock attractive at the current price?

The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $7.74, calculated fair value $17.27 (+123%), Quality Score 71/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.

How is the fair value of TME calculated?

We run Tencent Music Entertainment Group through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $17.27, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.

Is it still worth investing in stocks now?

The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tencent Music Entertainment Group currently trades 55 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.

What is the share price of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $7.74. Our model-based fair value is $17.27, about +123% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.

What should I pay attention to with Tencent Music Entertainment Group right now?

The rarer combination: high quality (71/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($11.06). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. A fairly wide model range ($11.06 to $24.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tencent Music Entertainment Group

How large is the market capitalisation of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The market capitalisation of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is $13.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.

What is the P/S ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The price-to-sales ratio of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 3.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.

What are the earnings per share of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Earnings per share at Tencent Music Entertainment Group are $0.8400 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.

What is the dividend yield of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The dividend yield of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 2.9% (payout 20.1%, on adjusted earnings, reported 17.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.

What is the net margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The net margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 33.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.

What is the return on equity of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The return on equity (ROE) of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.

What is the EBIT return on assets of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 7.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.

What is the operating margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

The operating margin of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is 30.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.

How fast is revenue growing at Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Revenue at Tencent Music Entertainment Group is growing +7.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.

How fast are earnings growing at Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME)?

Earnings per share at Tencent Music Entertainment Group are growing −51.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.

How much free cash flow does Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) generate?

The free cash flow of Tencent Music Entertainment Group is $9.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.

How much net cash does Tencent Music Entertainment Group (TME) hold?

Tencent Music Entertainment Group holds more cash than debt, $4.7B net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.

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