Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Thermal Energy International Inc $0.03, price $0.11, upside -71.4%, quality 42 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Thermal Energy International Inc. engages in the development, engineering, and supply of pollution control, heat recovery systems, and condensate return solutions in North America, Europe, and internationally.
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Thermal Energy International Inc. engages in the development, engineering, and supply of pollution control, heat recovery systems, and condensate return solutions in North America, Europe, and internationally. The company offers GEM steam traps; FLUACE-ACE heat recovery, a direct contact condensing heat recovery system that recycles the heat lost through the boiler flue gas exhaust; and DRY-REX biomass dryer, a low temperature biomass dryer. It also provides boiler feedwater economizer, vent condenser, boiler blowdown heat recovery, heat recovery steam generator, indirect contact condensing heat recovery, and air to air heat exchange. The company serves its products to food and beverage, pulp and paper, hospital, pharmaceutical, chemicals and petrochemicals, and other industry sectors. Thermal Energy International Inc. was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Ottawa, Canada.
Stock analysis
Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF) currently trades at $0.1050, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.0300, 71.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $0.1100 per share, and 1 of the 13 models we run sit above the $0.1050 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.0100, and 12 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 42/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Thermal Energy International Inc reported revenue of C$29.8M in FY2025 versus C$15.3M in FY2021, a compound +18.0%/yr. Reported net income was C$73.2K in FY2025, compounding −22.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $18.2M · P/S ratio 0.56 · Net margin 0.2% · Return on equity 32.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 1.6% · Operating margin 4.0% · Revenue (TTM) C$33.3M · Revenue growth (YoY) +62.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 28 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 35% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at −71%, TMGEF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0100 to $0.1100). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $0.0300Fair Value $0.0300Bull $0.0300
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.46/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +15.9% a year
Revenue growth 17 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−19.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−19.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−1% → 1%
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thermal Energy International Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TMGEF
Frequently asked questions
Is Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.0300 versus a price of $0.1050, about −71% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TMGEF?
Our model-based fair value for Thermal Energy International Inc is $0.0300 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.1050.
What is the quality score of TMGEF?
Thermal Energy International Inc has a Quality Score of 42/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.0300 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thermal Energy International Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.0300, about −71% upside versus a price of $0.1050 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
Thermal Energy International Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$33.3M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thermal Energy International Inc it is $0.0300 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1050. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thermal Energy International Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TMGEF trades above its calculated fair value: price $0.1050, fair value $0.0300, a gap of about −71% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TMGEF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1050); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.0300). For Thermal Energy International Inc the two are $0.0750 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thermal Energy International Inc worth?
The market values Thermal Energy International Inc at about $18.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1050; our models calculate a fair value of $0.0300 per share.
How far is TMGEF from its 52-week high?
Thermal Energy International Inc trades at $0.1050, about 25% below its 52-week high of $0.1400 and 35% above the low of $0.0780 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.0300 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thermal Energy International Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Veralto Corporation, Zurn Elkay Water Solutions Corporation, CECO Environmental Corp, Fujian Longking Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thermal Energy International Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1050, calculated fair value $0.0300 (−71%), Quality Score 42/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TMGEF calculated?
We run Thermal Energy International Inc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.0300, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Thermal Energy International Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.1050. Our model-based fair value is $0.0300, about −71% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thermal Energy International Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.0300). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (42/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Key figures of Thermal Energy International Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
The market capitalisation of Thermal Energy International Inc is $18.2M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thermal Energy International Inc is 0.56 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What is the net margin of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
The net margin of Thermal Energy International Inc is 0.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thermal Energy International Inc is 32.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thermal Energy International Inc is 1.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
The operating margin of Thermal Energy International Inc is 4.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
Revenue at Thermal Energy International Inc is growing +62.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +23.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF)?
Earnings per share at Thermal Energy International Inc are growing +32.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thermal Energy International Inc (TMGEF) generate?
The free cash flow of Thermal Energy International Inc is −C$1.8M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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Sep 24, 2026