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Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp stock $9.76, price $6.04, upside +61.6%, quality 31 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Healthcare · US · ISIN US8902608392

TP Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp logo Thin data Oct 2, 2026

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp

TNXP · US

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

The stock costs 38% less than our calculation considers fair.

Fair value $9.76 · Strongly undervalued (+61.6%)
Low debt
Ranks above peers (5/8)
Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +35.1 %/yr in USD)
Quality 31/100
Negative free cash flow
Narrow moat 6/100 · thin data
Thin data
⚠ Dilution
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$672,000 $6.04 Fair Value $9.76 Jul 2021 Oct 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $6.04 – $672,000 · fair‑value band $6.44 – $12.20 · the $6.04 price screens below the $9.76 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 2, 2026.

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Company profile

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders, immunology and immuno-oncology, infectious diseases, and rare diseases in the United States.

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The company offers TONMYA, a cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablet for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It also markets Zembrace SymTouch and Tosymra for the treatment of acute migraine with or without aura in adults.

In addition, the company develops TNX-102 SL, a cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablet for the treatment of major depressive disorder and acute stress reaction/acute stress disorder; TNX-1300, a double-mutant cocaine esterase for the treatment of cocaine intoxication; TNX-1500, an Fc-modified humanized monoclonal antibody to prevent kidney transplant rejection, as well as to treat autoimmune conditions; TNX-4800, a humanized monoclonal antibody for the seasonal prevention of Lyme disease; and TNX-2900, an intranasal oxytocin potentiated with magnesium for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome.

Further, it is developing TNX-1900, an intranasal potentiated oxytocin for the treatment of binge eating disorder, adolescent obesity, and bone health in pediatric autism, and arginine-vasopressin deficiency; TNX-801, a live horsepox vaccine for the prevention of smallpox and mpox; TNX-4200, a small molecule broad-spectrum antiviral agent targeting CD45 for the treatment or prevention of viral disease; TNX-4900, a highly selective small-molecule Sigma-1 receptor antagonist for neuropathic pain; TNX-1700, a recombinant Trefoil Factor Family 2 fusion protein for the treatment of gastric and colorectal cancers; and TNX-1800 and TNX-1850, live modified horsepox vaccines for the prevention of COVID. Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. was founded in 2007 and is based in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey.

Stock analysis

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) currently trades at $6.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $9.76, implying the stock looks roughly 38.1% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.

Scenario range: $6.44 (bear) to $12.20 (bull), the price of $6.04 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 31/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp reported revenue of $13.1M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$124M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $167M Micro · P/S ratio 5.74 · EPS (TTM) $−13.09 · Return on equity −81.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −58.8% · Operating margin −314% · Revenue (TTM) $29.1M · Revenue growth (YoY) +578%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 6 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 70% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 62%, TNXP screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $6.44 Fair Value $9.76 Bull $12.20
Price $6.04 · Upside +61.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham) $7.58 $11.48 $14.35 54
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $7.58 $11.48 $14.35 54

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 31/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 1
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 69
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 7
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 75
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 45
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 2
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Momentum 3
Price trend of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 0
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 23/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+29.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+35.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+97.6%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1,733.4% (2020) → −959.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Biotechnology · 605 stocks

Beats the industry median on 5/7 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 31 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +61.6% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −44.8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 577.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.02× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.68× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.74× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 0
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 0
HEALTH (low debt)99 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 22

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN $746.54 $1,275 +71% vs TNXP
Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX $510.08 $561.09 +10% vs TNXP
argenx SE ARGX $825.03 $907.53 +10% vs TNXP
Samsung Biologics Co 207940 1,298,000 KRW 1,427,800 KRW +10% vs TNXP
WuXi Biologics (Cayman) Inc 2269 HK$52.65 HK$57.92 +10% vs TNXP
CSL Limited CSL A$192.20 A$180.83 −6% vs TNXP
Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY $232.68 $217.88 −6% vs TNXP
BeOne Medicines AG ONC $354.47 $280.94 −21% vs TNXP
Celltrion, Inc 068270 180,400 KRW 74,519 KRW −59% vs TNXP
Royalty Pharma plc RPRX $56.93 $19.01 −67% vs TNXP

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Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp · Fair Value
$9.76 +38%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TNXP

Frequently asked questions

Is Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $9.76 versus a price of $6.04, about +62% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TNXP?
Our model-based fair value for Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is $9.76 (as of Oct 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $6.04.
What is the quality score of TNXP?
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp has a Quality Score of 31/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $9.76 (as of Oct 2, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $6.44, optimistic scenario $12.20. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $9.76, about +62% upside versus a price of $6.04 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $6.44, optimistic scenario $12.20. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $29.1M (latest available figure, as of Oct 2, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp it is $9.76 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026), against a price of $6.04. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 2, 2026, TNXP trades below its calculated fair value: price $6.04, fair value $9.76, a gap of about +62% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TNXP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($6.04); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($9.76). For Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp the two are $3.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp worth?
The market values Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp at about $167M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 2, 2026). Per share that is $6.04; our models calculate a fair value of $9.76 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TNXP?
Our models span a range for Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp: cautious scenario $6.44, base $9.76, optimistic $12.20 per share (as of Oct 2, 2026, price $6.04). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (as of Oct 2, 2026): return on equity −81.8%, debt of 0.02 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 31/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TNXP from its 52-week high?
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp trades at $6.04, about 70% below its 52-week high of $20.35 and at the low of $6.04 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $9.76 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc, argenx SE, CSL Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 2, 2026: price $6.04, calculated fair value $9.76 (+62%), Quality Score 31/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TNXP calculated?
We run Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $9.76, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp currently trades 38 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $6.04. Our model-based fair value is $9.76, about +62% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (31/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.44). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($6.44 to $12.20) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp

How large is the market capitalisation of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
The market capitalisation of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is $167M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is 5.74 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
Earnings per share at Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp are $−13.09. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is −81.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is −58.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
The operating margin of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is −314% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP)?
Revenue at Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is growing +578% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) generate?
The free cash flow of Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp is −$103M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) hold?
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp holds more cash than debt, $206M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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