Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $191M · ISIN US8902608392
What is Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp really worth?
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp
TNXP · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 309% above our fair value of $3.27.
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 3 valuation models · updated 21 days ago
Share price +25.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.01). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($2.13 to $4.01) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $7.38 – $889,600 · fair‑value band $2.13 – $4.01 · the $13.38 price screens above the $3.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp (TNXP) currently trades at $13.38, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.27, implying the stock looks roughly 308.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $10.30 per share, and 0 of the 3 models we run sit above the $13.38 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.62, and 3 of the 3 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $17.6M. Revenue grew 183.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −72.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $206M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $2.13 (bear case) to $4.01 (bull case); at $13.38, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −49% fair-value upside, at −76%, TNXP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 3 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($10.30) versus Dividend Discount ($4.62). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 17
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders, immunology and immuno-oncology, infectious diseases, and rare diseases in the United States. The company offers TONMYA, a cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablet for the treatment of fibromyalgia.
Full company description
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp., a fully integrated biopharmaceutical company, develops and commercializes therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders, immunology and immuno-oncology, infectious diseases, and rare diseases in the United States. The company offers TONMYA, a cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablet for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It also markets Zembrace SymTouch and Tosymra for the treatment of acute migraine with or without aura in adults. In addition, the company develops TNX-102 SL, a cyclobenzaprine HCl sublingual tablet for the treatment of major depressive disorder and acute stress reaction/acute stress disorder; TNX-1300, a double-mutant cocaine esterase for the treatment of cocaine intoxication; TNX-1500, an Fc-modified humanized monoclonal antibody to prevent kidney transplant rejection, as well as to treat autoimmune conditions; TNX-4800, a humanized monoclonal antibody for the seasonal prevention of Lyme disease; and TNX-2900, an intranasal oxytocin potentiated with magnesium for the treatment of Prader-Willi syndrome. Further, it is developing TNX-1900, an intranasal potentiated oxytocin for the treatment of binge eating disorder, adolescent obesity, and bone health in pediatric autism, and arginine-vasopressin deficiency; TNX-801, a live horsepox vaccine for the prevention of smallpox and mpox; TNX-4200, a small molecule broad-spectrum antiviral agent targeting CD45 for the treatment or prevention of viral disease; TNX-4900, a highly selective small-molecule Sigma-1 receptor antagonist for neuropathic pain; TNX-1700, a recombinant Trefoil Factor Family 2 fusion protein for the treatment of gastric and colorectal cancers; and TNX-1800 and TNX-1850, live modified horsepox vaccines for the prevention of COVID. Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp. was founded in 2007 and is based in Berkeley Heights, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tonix Pharmaceuticals Holding Corp reported revenue of $13.1M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$124M in FY2025.
TNXP screens 309% overvalued. Compare with Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated →
Peer Group
Biotechnology · 636 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Biotechnology median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Biotechnology stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Incorporated VRTX | $547.55 | $278.78 | −49% |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc REGN | $807.71 | $594.40 | −26% |
| argenx SE ARGX | €877.60 | €292.84 | −67% |
| Samsung Biologics Co 207940 | 1,518,000 KRW | 1,055,793 KRW | −30% |
| CSL Limited CSL | A$173.88 | A$142.22 | −18% |
| Alnylam Pharmaceuticals, Inc ALNY | $228.61 | $51.70 | −77% |
| Royalty Pharma plc RPRX | $60.58 | $24.22 | −60% |
| Celltrion, Inc 068270 | 190,700 KRW | 74,519 KRW | −61% |
| BeOne Medicines AG ONC | $362.51 | $111.35 | −69% |
| BioNTech SE 22UA | €80.60 | €52.92 | −34% |
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