Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Aug 24, 2026: fair value of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd $42.99, price $54.01, upside -20.4%, quality 53 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells chemical products and process equipment in Japan and internationally.
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Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co., Ltd. manufactures and sells chemical products and process equipment in Japan and internationally. The company offers g/i-Line, KrF excimer laser, ArF excimer laser, and EUV photoresists; wet etching and deep dry etching resist; developer and rinse, and stripping solution; thinner; adhesion enhancing, DSA, reflective multilayer, and file formation materials. It provides semiconductor packaging manufacturing products, including lift-off, bump formation, redistribution layer resist, protective coating materials, and adhesives; CMOS sensors and driving support system; and transparent materials and photosensitive permanent films. In addition, the company offers Sievewill, a life science research tool that traps cells and allows solutions to pass through; photo patternable permanent materials for structure fabrication/photo patternable adhesives materials; optical materials, such as NIL and hydrophilic coating materials; and high functional materials comprising porous polyimide film, and hydrophilic coating materials. The company was incorporated in 1940 and is headquartered in Kawasaki, Japan.
Stock analysis
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF) currently trades at $54.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $42.99, 20.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $43.24 per share, and 5 of the 24 models we run sit above the $54.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.06, and 19 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21.62 (bear) to $55.89 (bull), the price of $54.01 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Technology sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd reported revenue of ¥237B in FY2025 versus ¥140B in FY2021, a compound +14.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥33.3B in FY2025, compounding +17.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.6B · P/E ratio 31.4 · P/S ratio 4.42 · EPS (TTM) $1.72 · Net margin 14.1% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.4% · Operating margin 8.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −64% fair-value upside, at −20%, TOKCF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $21.62Fair Value $42.99Bull $55.89
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+17.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+3.1%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 20%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 7.9%/yr over ~5Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+41.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +38.2% a year for the price and +9.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (6 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Components · 631 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Above median
Fair Value upside−20.4% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5.5% · Below median
Return on assets4.0% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)6.1% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)8.3% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth92.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)44.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Electronic Components median · lower = cheaper
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Is Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $42.99 versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $54.01, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TOKCF?
Our model-based fair value for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is $42.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Aug 24, 2026): $54.01.
What is the quality score of TOKCF?
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $42.99 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.62, optimistic scenario $55.89. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $42.99, about −20% upside versus the last price from Aug 24, 2026 of $54.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.62, optimistic scenario $55.89. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥116B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +41.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +15.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TOKCF use?
Our models discount Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd at 9.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.84, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd that is +41.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd grew +15.1 % a year. The price currently implies +41.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +10.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (+41.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.96 %: that much free cash flow Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd it is $42.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $54.01. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TOKCF trades above its calculated fair value: price $54.01, fair value $42.99, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TOKCF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($54.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($42.99). For Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd the two are $11.02 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd worth?
The market values Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $54.01; our models calculate a fair value of $42.99 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TOKCF?
Our models span a range for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd: cautious scenario $21.62, base $42.99, optimistic $55.89 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $54.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TOKCF?
Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.4 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $42.99 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.0, P/S 11.7, EV/EBITDA 69.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 53/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Amphenol Corporation, Delta Electronics, Inc, Corning Incorporated, Hon Hai Precision Industry Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $54.01, calculated fair value $42.99 (−20%), Quality Score 53/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TOKCF calculated?
We run Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $42.99, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The latest price we hold is from Aug 24, 2026 and stands at $54.01. Our model-based fair value is $42.99, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($21.62 to $55.89) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The market capitalisation of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is 4.42 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd are $1.72 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 31.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The net margin of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is 14.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is 11.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
The operating margin of Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Revenue at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd is growing +92.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +10.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd (TOKCF)?
Earnings per share at Tokyo Ohka Kogyo Co. Ltd are growing +8.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026