Travis Perkins PLC (TPK) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Travis Perkins PLC £6.07, price £6.13, upside -0.9%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £4.76 – £15.56 · fair‑value band £3.82 – £8.32 · the £6.13 price screens above the £6.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Travis Perkins plc engages in distribution of building material products in the United Kingdom. It operates through Merchanting and Toolstation segments. The company offers tools and building supplies.
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Travis Perkins plc engages in distribution of building material products in the United Kingdom. It operates through Merchanting and Toolstation segments. The company offers tools and building supplies. It also distributes pipeline, insulation, and interior building products; provides managed and hire services; designs and supplies kitchen offer under the Benchmarx; and commercial and industrial heating and cooling solutions. In addition, the company provides specialist civils and drainage solutions; and air-conditioning, refrigeration products, and heat pumps, as well as installation materials. Further, it provides kitchens and joinery products, as well as repair and maintenance management services for social housing landlords. The company markets its products under Travis Perkins, Toolstation, BSS, Keyline, CCF, and TF Solution brands. It sells its products through branches and distribution centres. Travis Perkins plc was founded in 1797 and is headquartered in Northampton, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
Travis Perkins PLC (TPK) currently trades at £6.13, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £6.07, implying the stock looks roughly 0.9% fairly valued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £18.27 per share, and 10 of the 15 models we run sit above the £6.13 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at £1.62, and 5 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: £3.82 (bear) to £8.32 (bull), the price of £6.13 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Travis Perkins PLC reported revenue of £4.6B in FY2025 versus £4.6B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was −£176M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.3B GBX · P/S ratio 0.26 · EPS (TTM) £−0.8300 · Dividend yield 2.0% · Net margin −3.9% · Return on equity −9.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −29% fair-value upside, at −1%, TPK screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £3.82Fair Value £6.07Bull £8.32
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.33/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.6% a year
Revenue growth 39 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.5%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−3.1% (2020) → 2.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−12.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −14.4% a year for the price and +0.6% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Industrial Distribution · 112 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Below median
Fair Value upside−1% · Below median
Profitability
Return on assets2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth0% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.0% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Industrial Distribution median · lower = cheaper
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Is Travis Perkins PLC (TPK) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £6.07 versus a price of £6.13, about −1% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TPK?
Our model-based fair value for Travis Perkins PLC is £6.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £6.13.
What is the quality score of TPK?
Travis Perkins PLC has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £6.07 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario £3.82, optimistic scenario £8.32. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Travis Perkins PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £6.07, about −1% upside versus a price of £6.13 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £3.82, optimistic scenario £8.32. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Travis Perkins PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £4.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Travis Perkins PLC pay a dividend?
Travis Perkins PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.96% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Travis Perkins PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -12.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +4.3 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TPK use?
Our models discount Travis Perkins PLC at 12.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 1.28, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Travis Perkins PLC that is -12.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Travis Perkins PLC (TPK) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Travis Perkins PLC grew +4.3 % a year. The price currently implies -12.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Travis Perkins PLC (-12.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 21.69 %: that much free cash flow Travis Perkins PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Travis Perkins PLC it is £6.07 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £6.13. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Travis Perkins PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TPK trades above its calculated fair value: price £6.13, fair value £6.07, a gap of about −1% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TPK?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£6.13); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£6.07). For Travis Perkins PLC the two are £0.0550 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Travis Perkins PLC worth?
The market values Travis Perkins PLC at about 1.3B GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £6.13; our models calculate a fair value of £6.07 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TPK?
Our models span a range for Travis Perkins PLC: cautious scenario £3.82, base £6.07, optimistic £8.32 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £6.13). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of TPK?
The PEG ratio of Travis Perkins PLC is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Balance-sheet figures for Travis Perkins PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −9.4%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TPK from its 52-week high?
Travis Perkins PLC trades at £6.13, about 13% below its 52-week high of £7.05 and 21% above the low of £5.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £6.07 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Travis Perkins PLC?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value W.W. Grainger, Inc, Fastenal Company, Ferguson Enterprises Inc, WESCO International, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Travis Perkins PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £6.13, calculated fair value £6.07 (−1%), Quality Score 57/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TPK calculated?
We run Travis Perkins PLC through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £6.07, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Travis Perkins PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was £6.13. Our model-based fair value is £6.07, about −1% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Travis Perkins PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (£3.82 to £8.32) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Travis Perkins PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The market capitalisation of Travis Perkins PLC is 1.3B GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Travis Perkins PLC is 0.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Earnings per share at Travis Perkins PLC are £−0.8300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The dividend yield of Travis Perkins PLC is 2.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The net margin of Travis Perkins PLC is −3.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Travis Perkins PLC is −9.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Travis Perkins PLC is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
The operating margin of Travis Perkins PLC is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Revenue at Travis Perkins PLC is growing +0.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Travis Perkins PLC (TPK)?
Earnings per share at Travis Perkins PLC are growing +472% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Travis Perkins PLC (TPK) carry?
The net debt of Travis Perkins PLC is 621M GBX (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Sep 24, 2026