Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 7, 2026: fair value of Trulieve Cannabis Corp $13.01, price $10.78, upside +20.7%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Trulieve Cannabis Corp. operates as a cannabis retailer in the United States. The company cultivates, processes, and manufactures cannabis products and distributes its products to its dispensaries, as well as through home delivery.
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Trulieve Cannabis Corp. operates as a cannabis retailer in the United States. The company cultivates, processes, and manufactures cannabis products and distributes its products to its dispensaries, as well as through home delivery. It sells flowers, edibles, vapes, oral, topical, concentrates, and accessories under the Avenue, Cultivar Collection, Muse, Modern Flower, Alchemy, Momenta, Sweet Talk, Co2lors, and Roll One brands. The company operates dispensaries in Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio, Maryland, West Virginia, Connecticut, and Pennsylvania. It operates cultivation and processing facilities in Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. The company also offers medical cannabis dispensary in North Miami Beach, Florida. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. was formerly known as Schyan Exploration Inc./Exploration Schyan Inc. and changed its name to Trulieve Cannabis Corp. in September 2018. Trulieve Cannabis Corp. was incorporated in 1940 and is headquartered in Tallahassee, Florida.
Stock analysis
Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV) currently trades at $10.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $13.01, implying the stock looks roughly 17.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $18.30 per share, and 9 of the 13 models we run sit above the $10.78 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.57, and 4 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $9.30 (bear) to $16.71 (bull), the price of $10.78 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Trulieve Cannabis Corp reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $1.2B in FY2022, a compound −1.0%/yr. Reported net income was −$116M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $2.1B · P/S ratio 1.81 · EPS (TTM) $−2.44 · Net margin −9.9% · Return on equity −47.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0% · Operating margin 12.8% · Revenue (TTM) $1.1B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at 21%, TRLV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $9.30Fair Value $13.01Bull $16.71
Price $10.78 · Upside +20.7%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.25/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−0.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.0%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−9.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −2.2% a year for the price and −11.2% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic · 590 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/11 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside+20.7% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets3.3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)−41.6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)12.8% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−10.3% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic median · lower = cheaper
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Is Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $13.01 versus a price of $10.78, about +21% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TRLV?
Our model-based fair value for Trulieve Cannabis Corp is $13.01 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.78.
What is the quality score of TRLV?
Trulieve Cannabis Corp has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $13.01 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $9.30, optimistic scenario $16.71. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Trulieve Cannabis Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $13.01, about +21% upside versus a price of $10.78 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $9.30, optimistic scenario $16.71. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
Trulieve Cannabis Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Trulieve Cannabis Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +0.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew -1.0 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TRLV use?
Our models discount Trulieve Cannabis Corp at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.76, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Trulieve Cannabis Corp that is +0.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at Trulieve Cannabis Corp grew -1.0 % a year. The price currently implies +0.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Trulieve Cannabis Corp (+0.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 10.22 %: that much free cash flow Trulieve Cannabis Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Trulieve Cannabis Corp it is $13.01 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of $10.78. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Trulieve Cannabis Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, TRLV trades below its calculated fair value: price $10.78, fair value $13.01, a gap of about +21% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TRLV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.78); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($13.01). For Trulieve Cannabis Corp the two are $2.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Trulieve Cannabis Corp worth?
The market values Trulieve Cannabis Corp at about $2.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is $10.78; our models calculate a fair value of $13.01 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TRLV?
Our models span a range for Trulieve Cannabis Corp: cautious scenario $9.30, base $13.01, optimistic $16.71 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price $10.78). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Trulieve Cannabis Corp (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity −47.7%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to Trulieve Cannabis Corp?
From the same area (Healthcare) we also value Merck KGaA, Takeda Pharmaceutical Company, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Trulieve Cannabis Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price $10.78, calculated fair value $13.01 (+21%), Quality Score 56/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TRLV calculated?
We run Trulieve Cannabis Corp through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $13.01, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.3 % above its aggregate fair value. Trulieve Cannabis Corp currently trades 17 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The closing price on Oct 7, 2026 was $10.78. Our model-based fair value is $13.01, about +21% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Trulieve Cannabis Corp right now?
Solid quality (56/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Trulieve Cannabis Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The market capitalisation of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is $2.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is 1.81 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
Earnings per share at Trulieve Cannabis Corp are $−2.44. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The net margin of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is −9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is −47.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is 4.0% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
The operating margin of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is 12.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV)?
Revenue at Trulieve Cannabis Corp is growing −10.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much net debt does Trulieve Cannabis Corp (TRLV) carry?
The net debt of Trulieve Cannabis Corp is $308M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 4, 2026